七台河市看乳腺检查多少钱健步大夫

来源:搜狐娱乐
原标题: 七台河市看乳腺检查多少钱养心新闻
Julian Barnes’ The Sense of an Ending is a good novel. We know it#39;s a good novel because lots of people like it, and because it won the Man Booker, one of the biggest prizes in English-language literature. But here’s the funny thing. After the book won the prize, people didn#39;t like it as much! Its rating on the site Goods took a sudden plunge. And it wasn#39;t the only book to suffer that fate. A recent paper by sociologists Balázs Kovács and Amanda J. Sharkey studied a group of 32 English-language novels that won major literary awards. After the prize, their ratings on Goods dropped from an average of just under 4 to about 3.75. A group of comparably rated novels that were short-listed for prizes, but didn#39;t win, showed no such diminution.朱利安·巴恩斯的小说The Sense of an Ending不错。很多人都喜欢这部小说,并且它还获得了布克奖——英语文学的重量级奖项之一。但是奇怪的事儿来了。在获奖之后,人们没有从前那么喜欢这部小说了。它在Goods上的排名骤然下滑,而且它并不是唯一遭此厄运的小说。最近社会学家巴拉兹·卡瓦茨和阿曼达·J·莎克里发表了一篇论文,其中研究了一组共32部英语小说,它们都曾获得过重要的文学奖项。在获奖之后,它们在Goods上的排名平均下滑3.75到4个位次。另外一组研究对象则是入围但是最终并未获奖的小说,它们跟获奖小说的水平相当,但是却未出现如此现象。When a book wins a Booker, that ought to make us think it’s good. Every sociologist—OK, every human being over the age of 12—knows we like things more when we hear that other people like them. So what explains the Booker backlash?如果一本书能够获得布克奖,我们会理所当然的认为它是本好书。每一位社会学家,好吧,每一个12岁以上的人,都知道如果我们听说有其他人也跟我们一样喜欢一样东西,那我们会更加喜欢它。那又如何来解释“布克反弹”现象呢?At least in part, it’s a quirk of statistics called Berkson#39;s fallacy. If you know one thing about correlation, it’s that correlation is not the same as causation. Two variables, like height and math scores in school kids, may be correlated, even though being good at math doesn’t make you taller, or vice versa. What’s going on is that older kids are both taller and better at math. Correlation can arise from a common cause that drives both variables in the same direction.从某种程度来说,它是一种被称之为伯克逊谬误的统计失真。如果你对相关性略知一二,你会知道相关并不代表因果关系。比如两个变量,学生的身高和数学成绩,它们可能具有相关性。虽然数学成绩好并不能让你长高,同样的,你再长得高点,也不能提高你的数学成绩。事实是,年龄大一点的孩子通常个子高一些,同时他们的数学成绩也会好一些。基于一个共同的原因,使得两个变量朝着相同的方向发展,由此两者之间产生了相关性。But that#39;s not the only way misleading correlations can pop up. Joseph Berkson, the longtime head of the medical statistics division at the Mayo Clinic, observed in 1938 that correlations can also arise from a common effect. Berkson#39;s research was about medical data in hospitals, but it’s easier to explain the phenomenon in terms of the Great Square of Men.但是这并不是误导相关产生的唯一原因。约瑟夫·伯克逊,长期担任Mayo诊所的医学统计部领导,他在1938年发现共同的影响也可以导致相关性。伯克逊的研究是基于医院的医学数据,但是我们可以通过“大方块中的男人”这个例子,来更容易的解释这个现象。Suppose you’re a person who dates men. You may have noticed that, among the men in your dating pool, the handsome ones tend not to be nice, and the nice ones tend not to be handsome. Is that because having a symmetrical face makes you cruel? Does it mean that being nice to people makes you ugly? Well, it could be. But it doesn#39;t have to be.假设你在和男人约会。你可能会注意到,在你的候选人员中,那些帅哥的脾气更加不好,而那些友好的男人又往往更丑些。这是否意味着对人友好会把人变丑?好吧,也许是的。不过不是非得这样。Behold the Great Square of Men. (And I#39;d like to note that you can find more stunning hand-drawn illustrations just like this one in How Not to Be Wrong.)让我们回到“大方块中的男人”。(而且我想提醒你,在How Not to Be Wrong.中你会找到比下图更惊人的手绘插图)Now, let’s take as a working hypothesis that men are in fact equidistributed all over this square. In particular, there are nice handsome ones, nice ugly ones, mean handsome ones, and mean ugly ones, in roughly equal numbers.现在,让我们做一个有效的假设,即方块中的男人实际上是等分布的。更具体点说,我们把这些男人分为4类,既友好又长得帅的,友好但是长得丑的,不友好但长得帅的和不友好又长得丑的,每一类的人数都差不多。But niceness and handsomeness have a common effect: They put these men in the group of people that you notice. Be honest—the mean uglies are the ones you never even consider. So inside the Great Square is a Smaller Triangle of Acceptable Men:但是友好和帅气具有一个共同的效应:只有这些人你才会注意到。说实话,那些脾气又臭长得又丑的男人根本不在你的考虑范围之内。因此在这个大方块中,只有一个小三角才是你的选择范围。Now the source of the phenomenon is clear. The handsomest men in your triangle, over on the far right, run the gamut of personalities, from kindest to (almost) cruelest. On average, they are about as nice as the average person in the whole population, which, let’s face it, is not that nice. And by the same token, the nicest men are only averagely handsome. The ugly guys you like, though—they make up a tiny corner of the triangle, and they are pretty darn nice. They have to be, or they wouldn#39;t be visible to you at all. The negative correlation between looks and personality in your dating pool is absolutely real. But the relation isn#39;t causal. If you try to improve your boyfriend’s complexion by training him to act mean, you#39;ve fallen victim to Berkson#39;s fallacy.至此,这个现象产生的根源已经很清楚了,在你的三角中,最帅的人位于最右边的线上,它几乎囊括了人的所有品性,从最宽厚的到(几乎)最残忍的。平均而言,他们的友好程度跟全体男人的平均友好水平差不多,但是,我们必须正视,这个友好程度并不十分友好。同理可得,最友好的男人的相貌也只达到全体男人的平均水平。而那些你能看上的丑男们,他们可真是友好的不像话啊,虽然他们只占了三角中的一个很小的角落。不过他们必须得是这样的,否则怎么入得了你的法眼。约会对象的相貌和品性之间具有负相关性,这是绝对真实的。但是这种相关性并不具备因果关系。千万别想着通过训练男友行为卑劣,就能使他们的相貌增色几分,否则你就沦为伯克逊谬误的牺牲品了。The fallacy works, too, as a driver of literary snobbery. Why are popular novels so terrible? It’s not because the masses don’t appreciate quality. It’s because the novels you are the ones in the Acceptable Triangle, which are either popular or good. So within that group, the good ones are less likely to be popular, for the same reason the handsomer men are bigger jerks. If you force yourself to unpopular novels chosen essentially at random—I#39;ve been on a jury for a literary prize, so I#39;ve actually done this—you find that most of them, just like the popular ones, are pretty bad. And I imagine if you dated men chosen completely at random from OkCupid, you’d find that the less attractive men were just as jerky as the chiseled hunks. But that’s an experiment I can’t recommend, not even for the sake of mathematical enlightenment.此谬误也是文学上的势力现象产生的驱动力之一。为什么流行小说评价如此糟糕?并非是大众不懂得欣赏,而是因为每个人读的小说只在自己能接受的三角范围内,它们要么流行,要么很好。在这个范围内,好的小说更可能不那么流行,就好比那些比较帅气的男人更可能是个大混蛋!如果你强迫自己读一些完全随机选择的非流行小说(我曾经当过一个文学奖的评委,所以我确实这么干过),你会发现它们中的大多数,都非常的糟糕,就跟流行小说的表现一样。而且我能想像,如果你从OkCupid上完全随机的选择约会对象,你会发现那些不怎么具有吸引力的男人和俊朗的帅哥一样混蛋。不过我可不推荐这个实验,即便是打着数学启蒙的旗号。And now what happened to Julian Barnes is pretty clear. There are two reasons you might have The Sense of an Ending and rated it on Goods. It might be because it’s exactly the kind of novel you’re apt to like. Or it might be because it won the Booker Prize. When a book wins a prize, then its audience expands beyond the core group of fans aly predisposed to love it. That’s what every author dreams of, but more frequently inevitably means less universally liked.至此,朱利安·巴恩斯的遭遇已经相当明了。你可能已经读过The Sense of an Ending,并且在Goods上给它打了分。这其中的原因可能有两个,一个是因为它恰好就是你会喜欢的那类小说,另一个是因为它获得了布克奖。如果一本书获了奖,那么它的读者就不仅仅是那些之前就已经很热爱它的核心粉丝群体了。获奖是每一个作家梦寐以求的事情,但是一本书被读到的越频繁,喜欢它的读者的比例就越低。 /201406/305772Experts say eating a range of fruit and veg is best, as part of a balanced diet, to protect against illness据英国广播公司报道,专家表示,吃各种水果蔬菜对身体最为有利,可以均衡饮食,预防疾病。Research suggests eating at least seven portions of fruit and vegetables a day is more effective at preventing disease than the government#39;s current five-a-day recommendation.研究表明,一天至少吃7份水果蔬菜比政府目前提倡的一天五份可以更有效预防疾病。Is five a day enough?一天五份够不够?Yes - but people should eat at least five portions of fruit and vegetables a day, the government says. The advice is based on World Health Organization guidelines, which are 25 years old.五份是可以的,但政府表示,一天至少应该吃五份。此建议是基于世界卫生组织已建立了25周年的指导方针。Dieticians say eating five a day is enough to get the protective benefits of fruit and veg - although eating more may be additionally beneficial.饮食学专家说,一天吃五份水果蔬菜就足够使人体获益,尽管更多的水果蔬菜可能会带来额外好处。What counts as a portion?多少算是一份呢?Fruit juice counts towards one portion of the recommended five portions per day果汁是一天五份水果蔬菜中的一份。For an adult, a minimum of 400g of fruit and vegshould be eaten every day, or five portions of 80g.对于成年人来说,一天最少吃400克水果蔬菜,或5份80克的水果蔬菜。The amount varies for children, based on activity levels and age, but a rough guide is that one portion should fit in the palm of their hand.对儿童来说,摄入量因运动量与年龄有所不同,但有一个大体指导方法是他们的手掌能承担的量就是一份的量。Fruit and vegetables do not have to be eaten on their own and can be cooked in dishes such as soups, stews or pasta meals.各种水果蔬菜不必分开吃,可以做成汤、大杂烩或面食。Do tinned fruit and fruit juice count?罐头水果和果汁算不算?Yes. But juice should be unsweetened, and only counts as one portion a day, as it contains less fibre than whole fruits and vegetables.罐头水果和果汁算,但果汁应该是未加糖的,由于果汁比完整的水果蔬菜含有的纤维少,只能算作一份。Fruit must be tinned in natural juice, or water, with no added sugar or salt, and not in syrup, which lots of fruit is.水果必须是在天然果汁或水中,不添加任何糖或盐,不是在糖浆中。很多水果罐头用的是糖浆水。Beans and pulses also count, but again only as one portion as they contain fewer nutrients than other fruits and vegetables.豆类也算,但由于其比其他水果蔬菜含有的营养少,也只能算一份。Smoothies may count towards more than one portion if they contain all the edible pulped fruit or veg, and depending on their ingredients.如果冰沙含有所有可食用浆状果肉或蔬菜,可以不止算作一份,这取决于其中的成分。Recommendations include frozen fruit and vegetables, and dried fruit, such as currants, dates, sultanas and figs.还建议食用冷冻水果、蔬菜和干果,如醋栗果、小葡萄干、海枣、无花果等。Those in y-meals and shop-bought pasta sauces, soups and puddings are also included, but advice urges ;only to have them occasionally; or in small amounts as they are often high in salt, sugar and fat.熟食和商店中买的意大利面酱、汤和补丁中的水果蔬菜也算,但建议“偶尔吃这些东西”或食用量要少,因为这些食物通常含有较多的盐、糖和脂肪。What about potatoes?土豆算不算?Potatoes do not count towards one of the five-a-day, but sweet potatoes do.土豆不算,但甘薯算。Potatoes are not one of the five-a-day items. This is because they mainly contribute starch to a healthy diet, which is a good source of energy and helps digestion.土豆不能算作一天五份中的一份,这是因为土豆主要提供的是健康饮食需要的淀粉,对于补充体力和促进消化有益。They are classified in the same group as b or pasta by the government.政府将土豆和面包、意大利面食归为一类。Skins should be left on when cooking as they are a good source of fibre.烹饪时,土豆上的皮应该留着,因为其中含有较多纤维。But sweet potatoes, parsnips, swedes and turnips do count as five-a-day foods, as they are usually eaten as well as the starchy bit of the meal.但由于甘薯、欧洲萝卜、大头菜、红萝卜通常同含淀粉的食物一起吃,可以算作一天5份中的份量。 /201404/292266

生意兴隆:wish your business success大吉大利:wish you good fortune and every success龙马精神:may you be as energetic as a dragon and a horse恭喜发财:may prosperity be with you年年有余:may you always get more than you wish for新年新气象:as the New Year begins, let us also start a new万事如意:hope everything goes your way岁岁平安:may you start safe and sound all year round财源广进:may a river of gold flow into your pocket一帆风顺:wish you every success名列前茅:always come first in examinations鹏程万里:have a bright future风调雨顺:timely wind and rain bring good harvest国泰民安:wish our country flourishes and people live in peace /201401/274339When I think of Hawaii I immediately conjure up#39; mental visions of vibrant and profuse flora,sapphire blue waters,white sand beaches that stretch forever and sipping cooling rum punches served in coconut shells fancied up with brightly coloured paper parasols. It is all that, but the Hawaiian Islands are so much more.Many of my friends had visited this paradise before I finally had the opportunity.想到夏威夷,我脑海中立刻浮现出生机勃勃和种类繁多的植物、天蓝色的大海、绵延不绝的白色沙滩、小口啜饮着盛放在椰子壳里的冰镇朗姆酒,上面还插着颜色明快的小纸伞。我能想到的就是这些,但是夏威夷群岛远远不止这些。在我终于得以有机会去之前,我的许多朋友就已经游览过这个人间仙境了。From Canada,we flew from Victoria on Vancouver Island to Vancouver on B.C.#39;s mainland.Just five hours we landed in Honolulu,a beautiful and modern city of about three quarters of a million residents,formed four million years ago by massive volcanoes.We enjoyed a van ride from the airport to our beachfront hotel in Waikiki.我们从加拿大温哥华岛的维多利亚飞往位于不列颠哥伦比亚大陆的温哥华市。只用了5个小时我们就抵达了檀香山,它是400万年前由巨型火山喷发而形成的。这个美丽、现代的城市大约有75万居民。我们从机场乘坐面包车来到了位于怀基基的海滨旅馆,享受了一段美妙的旅程。There are many things to enjoy here from the famous Waikiki Beach,to a visit to a local pineapple or banana plantation or a native village featuring Hawaiian dancing.A pig roasted in a pit in the ground is tender and delicious to eat while watching the graceful hula dance being performed.The most notable landmark is the 760-foot extinct volcanic crater,known as Diamond Head,located on the southeastern end of the island near Waikiki Beach.这里有很多好玩的地方,从著名的怀基基沙滩到当地菠萝、香蕉种植园,再到具有本土特色的村庄,那里有夏威夷风情的舞蹈,这些都很有意思。在地里挖个坑,在坑里烤全猪.吃起来嫩滑美味,还可以边吃边欣赏优雅的草裙舞表演。当地最著名的地标是被誉为‘.钻石头”的760英尺高的死火山口,它位于怀基基海滩附近的海岛东南角。It is interesting to see a narrow opening in the rocks not far from there, where the sea rushes in and spouts the water high into the air. There are many places to rent snorkel gear#39; and surfboards.If you prefer a fun group activity, sign up for a fast ride.能在不远处看到岩石中狭窄的火山口非常有趣,在开口处还可以看到海水冲上来,将水柱顶到天空中。许多地方都可以租潜水装置和冲浪板。如果你更喜欢充满乐趣的集体活动,那就赶紧报名参加漂流吧。Passengers sit one behind the other on a banana-shaped inflatable while they zip across the ocean behind a high-speed boat. One can also visit Pearl Harbour and see, from a memorial platform,the warship Arizona which was sunk by the Japanese on that historic day December 7,1941.游客成一列坐在香蕉状的充气艇上,由一艘高速汽艇拖曳着在海面上呼啸而过。游客还可以游览珍珠港,从纪念碑的平台上可以看到“亚利桑那号”军舰,该舰在具有历史意义的1941年12月7日被日军击沉。The best and simplest way to really see Oahu Island is to rent a car and travel its perimeter.We stopped at roadside stands selling fruit, others piled high with conch shells which we tried to blow and an interesting outdoor gallery with a wide variety of Hawaiian themes painted on half surfboards.Located on the north shore of the island and a Mecca for surfers is the Banzai Pipeline, world renowned for its gigantic seven-metre waves. It requires much skill and daring to ride them to the safe shallow waters without being dashed upon underlying coral reefs.要想真正地看到瓦胡岛,最好也是最简易的方法就是租一辆小汽车沿着岛的周边行驶。我们在路边的水果摊停了下来,旁边的其他小摊上有成堆的海螺贝壳,我们试着吹出声音,还有一个有趣的户外画廊,里面摆放着画着各式各样夏威夷主题的半冲浪板。万岁管状浪区位于小岛北岸,是冲浪者的圣地,在世界上以其巨大的七米巨浪而闻名。在这里冲浪要求高超的技巧和勇气,能够不撞到下面的珊瑚礁,穿过巨浪回到安全的浅海区。After three days of learning our way around:we boarded a cruise ship which would travel north during the night to the Island of Kauai where we would eat breakfast on the aft deck before heading in to the shops in the tiny town of Nawiliwili.Mount Waialeale which stands 1,675 metres above sea level is the rainiest spot on earth with its annual rainfall an amazing 1,150 centimetres! Kauai with a population of 60,000 is therefore lush with vegetation and beautiful waterfalls and is known as the ;Garden Island;.It was here that movies such as Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981) and Jurassic Park (1993) and more recently the television series Lost were filmed.经过三天熟悉我们周围的线路,我们登上了一艘邮轮,准备在夜里开往北面的考爱岛,在前往那威利威利小镇的商店之前,我们要在船尾的甲板上吃早餐。海拔1675米的怀厄莱阿莱峰是世界上降雨最多的地区,这里的年均降雨量达到了惊人的1150厘米,考爱岛有6万人口,这里也因其丰富的蔬果和美丽的瀑布被誉为“花园岛”。(夺宝奇兵》(1981)和(侏罗纪公园》(1993)等电影和新近拍摄的电视剧《迷失》都在此拍摄。Sailing back south past Oahu,the ship anchored at the Island of Maui or Valley Island which got its name from a huge valley formed when two large volcanoes erupted.Its red volcanic dirt is excellent for growing sugar cane. In by-gone days, the community of Lahaina was a whaling town.Fifty percent of the world#39;s humpback whale population travel through Maui#39;s warm waters and thankfully Lahaina#39;s main industry has changed from whaling to tourism.Waters being too shallow to dock at the pier, passengers came ashore on the 128-person enclosed life boats.往回向南经过瓦胡岛,邮轮在毛伊岛停泊,毛伊岛也叫谷之岛,因两座巨大的火山爆发而形成的峡谷而得名。火山喷发出的红色火山灰是种植甘蔗的绝佳土壤。从前,拉海纳社区曾是一个捕鲸小镇。世界上一半的座头鲸都从毛伊岛温暖的海域中通过。幸亏现在拉海纳的主业已经从捕鲸转向了旅游业。由于海域太浅,邮轮不能在码头停靠,游客们乘坐能容纳128人的封闭救生艇上岸。A number of historic buildings are across from the town#39;s park, in the centre of which is one of the largest and oldest banyan; trees I have ever seen,its many roots hanging down to form numerous new trunks making a living canopy over the entire park. It was delightful to sit on a bench in the park with balmy breezes blowing and listen to a school group sing a variety of Hawaiian songs. May is a great time to travel to these islands as it is just past their rid temperatures are comfortable.A canoe-building contest and festival was on at that time and it was very interesting to see different types of dugouts in various stages of construction.I had never heard of the A chain of shops until we arrived in Waikiki and they seemed to be located on every street corner in every Hawaiian town and Lahaina was no exception.在市镇公园对面,有一些历史悠久的建筑,公园中心是一棵我见到过的最大也是历史最悠久的榕树。它的许多根从树上垂下来,变成许多新的枝干,在整个公园上空形成一个天蓬。坐在公园的长椅上,徐风拂过,听着学校社团唱着各种各样的夏威夷歌曲,很是愉快。五月是去这些岛屿游览的最佳时机,因为此时刚过完雨季,气候十分宜人。那时还会举办独木舟建造比赛,而这也是一个节日,期间能看到不同种类的独木舟建造过程的各个阶段是件很有意思的事。在到达怀基基岛之前,我从来都没听说过A连锁商店,但是在每个夏威夷城镇的每条街道的拐角处,似乎都可以看到这些连锁店,在拉海纳也不例外。They carry a variety of touristy items from Kona Coffee to macadamia nuts, jewellery, T-shirts, sandals, and snacks.If you are looking for small gifts, this is a good place to find them.商店出售各式各样的旅游商品,从科纳咖啡到夏威夷坚果、珠宝、下恤、凉鞋和小食品,应有尽有。如果你正在寻找小礼物,那么这是一个绝佳场所。因为我们要在这个港口停泊两天,于是我们为第二天预订了两个座位,乘坐一艘叫做“苏格兰迷雾”的美丽帆船出海,还和海龟一起潜水。As we were to be in port for two days, we reserved two spots on a beautiful sailboat called Scotch Mist for the next day to sail out and snorkel with sea turtles. We then took a local bus to a nearby beach and,after looking in more upscale shops,lazed around enjoying the sun and the sand.然后我们乘坐当地一辆巴士去附近的海滩,看了几个高档商店之后,慵懒地享受阳光和沙滩。The following day was sunny, as Scotch Mist motored along the shoreline for a good hour to reach the sea turtle area.Armed with a disposable underwater camera I attempted a few photos as I tried to swim close to the turtles. They are beautiful to watch as their large flippers move them gracefully through the blue waters. Later I that sea turtle areas are a favourite spot for sharks.Had I known that, I might not have been as enthusiastic about keeping company with the turtles.接下来是晴朗的一天,“苏格兰迷雾”沿着海岸线行驶了整整一个小时,来到了海龟聚集区。我带了一台一次性水下相机,试图在游到离海龟很近的时候拍几张照片。它们优雅地划动着鳍状肢,游弋在蓝色的大海里,看起来很漂亮。后来,我看资料才知道,海龟聚集区是鲨鱼最喜欢来的地方。如果我之前就知道这一点,我可能不会像当时那么热情地与海龟结伴而游了。After a relaxing two hours the wind came up and so we had a most enjoyable time actually sailing back to port.惬意的两小时过后,海上起风了,所以我们向港口返航,度过了最美妙的海上时光。Continuing south,we stopped at Hilo on the Big Island of Hawaii.Here we had pre-booked a Safari Helicopter ride to see rivers of lava flowing from the Kilauea Crater. This is a trip you#39;ll not want to miss. Do be prepared,when reserving, to give your weight as the pilots need this to place passengers in the right spots in the helicopter to keep things balanced.After being on a cruise ship for a week and being tempted by so much delicious food, we were not anxious to reveal our true weights but did anyway. After all were seated and had earphones in place, we lifted off with the ease of an eagle. As the volcano itself was not very active at this time, we flew over the rivers of red hot lava which showed up well in open areas.我们继续往南行驶,停在了夏威夷大岛的希罗。我们已经在这里预订了一趟直升机短途旅行,从空中观看岩浆从基拉韦厄火山口流出。这是一次你绝对不想错过的旅行。事前要作好准备,在预订飞机座位的时候,要告知你的体重,因为飞行员需要这些数据,以便把旅客安排到合适的位置以保持机身平衡。之前已经在邮轮上度过一周的时间,而且受到如此多美食的诱惑,我们本来不想泄露自己的真实体重,但也只好照办了。在大家全都坐好、戴上耳机之后,我们像苍鹰一样轻松地起飞了。由于火山在那个时候不是非常活跃,我们在许多条滚烫的红色岩浆流上空飞过,岩浆在开阔地区显得尤为明显。我们还在一些喷气孔和火山口的上空盘旋,透过上升的蒸汽,我们能够看到下面红色的岩浆。We also swung over a number of blowholes or vents where we could see the red lava showing through below the rising steam.Flying along the coast, we were fascinated by observing the clouds of steam as the hot lava hit the cooler ocean.Our flight finished up cruising over a large waterfall before setting down back at the airport.我们沿着海岸飞行,看到滚烫的岩浆与温度较低的海水汇合时升起的蒸汽云,十分令人着迷。飞机在返航途中,飞越一个大瀑布,然后才回到机场降落,结束了本次飞行。Hilo is also known for its Hawaiian store called Hattie and there are several branches throughout the Islands as well as in California,Nevada and Florida. They have retail and online sales of Hawaiian fashions,foods,gifts, jewellery, music and books. On entering their shops, everyone is given a shell necklace. Their wide selection of shirts is world-renowned and it is worth one#39;s while to browse at other items such as chinaware, sandals, nuts and coffee.希罗还因为有一个叫做哈蒂的夏威夷商店而闻名,整个群岛,还有加州、内华达州和佛罗里达州都有它的分店。这些店还有网上零售业务,出售夏威夷时装、食品、礼品、珠宝、音乐和书籍。一进入他们的商店,店员会给每个人发一条贝壳项链。商店里有很多种类可选的衬衫,在全世界都很有名,那里的其他物品,比如瓷器、凉鞋、坚果和咖啡都值得游客浏览一番。Hawaii is much more than sandy beaches,and travellers from all parts of the world enjoy a stay in these beautiful islands.夏威夷绝不仅仅只有沙滩,来自世界各地的游客在这些美丽的岛屿上会玩得很愉快。 /201409/332821LYON: A 33-year-old French man was sent to prison after phoning andtexting his ex-girlfriend 21,807 times, admitting that, with hindsight,;it was stupid;.里昂:法国一名33岁男子因通过电话和短信骚扰前女友21807次而被捕,他后来承认说:“这种行为很愚蠢”。The unnamed defendant, who had made the calls to demand the woman thank him forfixing up their flat, was given a 10-month sentence — six months ofwhich was suspended — and a 1,000-euro (,300) fine.这名未透露姓名的被告数次打电话要求前女友感谢他修理了他们的公寓,这名男子已获10个月监禁以及1000欧元(1300美元)罚款——其中有6个月是缓期执行。 He will also have to undergo psychiatric treatment and is barred from allcontact with the woman he harassed, lawyers in the case told AFP.该案例的律师们对法新社说,他还将接受精神病治疗并被限制同前女友进行任何联系。The defendant, who comes from Rhone insouthern France,had aly accepted responsibility for the barrage of phone calls and textmessages over a 10-month period, and had accepted an earlier demand to ceasecontact with his ex.这名被告来自法国南部的罗纳河,他已经为自己10个月来频繁通过电话和短信骚扰女友造成的后果承担责任,他也接受了之前要求他停止与前女友联系的判决。He had been hospitalised in the past for depression, and struggled to cope whenhis girlfriend broke off their relationship in 2011. He demanded compensationfor work he had carried out in their apartment.他过去有因抑郁症而入院的病史,他努力应对着2011年女友提出与他分手的事实。但他要求女友补偿他为修理公寓所作的努力。;At the time, my logic was that untilshe returns the money ... or at least says thank you, I would not stop thecalls,; he told the court in Lyon.她对里昂的法院说,“那时候,我想的就是在她把钱还我。。。或至少对我说谢谢之前,我是不会停住给她打电话的”。The calls kept coming -- averaging morethan 73 per day. ;She tried to block her line, but he phoned herparents instead and her workplace,; said Manuella Spee, lawyer for thevictim, a 32-year-old teacher who was also not named.电话持续打进来——平均每天超过73个。受害者的律师Manuella Spee说,“她试图让他联系不到她,但他改成向她的父母和她的工作地点打电话”。Manuella Spee是一名32岁的教师,姓名未详。It was only when she finally said thank you, during a meeting organised by amediator, that the harassment stopped. He has not contacted her since.直到前女友在调停者组织的会议上对他道了谢,他才停止了骚扰。此后,他再没联系过前女友。I tell myself, with hindsight, that it wasstupid,; he told the court yesterday.他昨天在法庭上说,“后来,我对自己说这样做很愚蠢”。He said he wanted to return to school to train to be a legal assistant, andadded that he had a ;passion for writing;.他说自己想要重返学校接受成为法律助理的培训,他还说,他有“写作的热情” /201410/333621

You don#39;t have to be a millionaire to steal these ideas about work, retirement and even getting up in the morning。即使你并不是百万富翁,你也可以偷学这些工作理念、退休概念甚至起床时间观念。1. They Don#39;t Retire When Everyone Else Does。他们不会像普通人一样早早退休。The average age for Americans to stop working is now 61, according to a recent Gallup poll, up from 59 ten years ago and 57 in the early 1990s. But America#39;s highest earners -- i.e., those with the biggest savings -- don#39;t plan on retiring until they#39;re at least 70, another new survey shows. Almost half of those people, who make ,000 or more a year, say they plan to keep working because they want to.根据最近的盖洛普民意测验显示,美国人现在的平均退休年龄是61岁,从20世纪90年代的57岁到十年前的59岁,退休年龄一直持推后的趋势。但是根据另一项最新研究显示,美国的最高收入群体——比如那些存款数目最大的人——至少到70岁之后才会计划退休。那些年收入7.5万美元甚至更高的人群中有将近半数称他们希望工作,所以会一直干下去。Granted, this group holds white-collar jobs that aren#39;t physically taxing -- but the ;never quit; concept is one that almost anyone can embrace. Stepping down to a less stressful position, or shifting to part-time work can put you farther ahead, savings-wise, when you do decide to retire。当然,这一富人群体都是不从事体力劳动的白领——但是他们“奋斗不止”的信念是每个人都应该积极借鉴的。退居到压力较小的岗位,或者换成一份兼职工作可以推迟你的退休年龄,这对你真正选择退休之后的生活有利。2. They Don#39;t Wake Up At 6 a.m. And Answer Emails。他们不会6点钟才起床回复邮件。You#39;re no doubt aware that the highest achievers are up earlier than most people: The National Sleep Foundation says most 30- to 45-year-olds get out of bed at 6 a.m. on a typical weekday morning, while this Guardian article shows that many CEOs of major companies wake closer to 5. You may not know, though, what those leaders are doing with the extra hour。你一定清楚收入最高的那些人比大多数人早起:根据全国睡眠研究基地研究显示,大多数30至45岁之间的人在工作日早晨6点钟起床,而一篇《卫报》上的消息则显示许多大型企业的CEO都在5点之前起床。你也许并不知道那些企业领导者们利用早起的时间干什么。Laura Vanderkam#39;s new book What the Most Successful People Do Before Breakfast gives plenty of concrete examples (and none of them involves catching up on Facebook). For instance: A businesswoman knows she could spend her early-morning hour cleaning out her in-box, but since that#39;s a job she can do in 5-minute breaks during the day, she devotes the alone time to making real, uninterrupted headway on a project that she#39;s decided is a top priority for her -- and that will have clear career benefits, teeing her up for a promotion or other advancement。劳拉·凡德卡姆的新书《大多数成功人士在早餐前干什么》中给出了很多实际的例子(这些例子中无一例包括查看脸谱网)。例如,一个职场女性知道自己可以用早上早起的时间清理她的收件箱,但是这件事她可以利用白天里5分钟的休息时间做完,所以她就用利用这段时间专心来跟进一天中最重要的项目工作——这种工作态度无疑会创造真正的工作效益,也为她升职、加薪做好了准备。3. They Don#39;t Ignore Job Offers For Lateral Moves。他们不会忽略平级跳槽的机会。While many top earners keep an eye out for their next career move, they#39;re not always looking to move up. They#39;re often looking to make lateral moves, says Amanda Augustine, job-search expert at TheLadders.com, which originally began as a job-search site for people earning 0,000 and more (they#39;ve since expanded to all salaries). This group is willing to move horizontally, or even to take a step down,很多有钱人会时刻关注职场机会,但他们并不总是向上看的,求职网站the ladder的求职专家阿曼达·奥古斯丁称,这些富人们常常会寻找平级跳槽的机会,求职网站the ladder一开始只为年收入10万美元以上的人提供就业信息(但后来他们已经扩展到为各薪酬阶层的人提供信息)。Augustine says, if there is a future opportunity to move up and take on an even better role. Employees at every level can learn from this behavior, she says. Making a sideways career change (either within your company or to a new one with a similar title, pay and responsibility) can also be worth it if your industry is contracting and the new job is in a field that#39;s growing, or if you#39;ll be saving money with a shorter commute or cheaper parking, or getting better benefits, whether insurance- or retirement-related。奥古斯丁表示,只要有升迁或获得更好的职位的机会,富人们愿意平级跳槽,甚至接受比当下等级低的工作。奥古斯丁表示,各个层级的员工都可以学习这种态度。 如果你当下从事的行业正在紧缩,而你新从事的工作行业则正在扩张,或者节省交通费用,或者获得更好的保险、退休金等福利待遇时,平级跳槽就是值得的。4. They Don#39;t Buy When They Can Rent。他们能租房就不买房。It#39;s the American dream to own a home, but don#39;t assume that everyone who can purchase a home does. The five-year rule (if you#39;re not going to live in a home for five years, don#39;t buy it) is back. Renting is more popular than ever, even among the wealthy. While it once made sense for people who could afford it to buy a home and flip it after two years, and the market has improved moderately this year, we#39;re hardly in a boom。拥有一套房子是美国梦的一部分,但并不是所有的人都有能力买房。五年规则(即如果你不会在这套房子里住五年以上,就不要把它买下来)卷土重来。即使是在富人圈子里,租房之风也空前盛行。虽然过去买得起房子的富人倾向于买下一幢房子,然后两年后转手,而且今年的房市稍有缓和,但当下绝不是经济繁荣时期。This article by economist Robert J. Shiller explains that attitudes toward renting are starting to change; 61 percent of Americans in a recent MacArthur Foundation survey agreed that, ;for the most part, renters can be just as successful as owners at achieving the American dream。;经济学家罗伯特·席勒解释说,人们对于租房的观念已经改变了;在麦克阿瑟基金最近作出的研究调查表明,61%的美国人同意,“在很大程度上,租房的人和买房的人实现美国梦的机会是同等的。”5. They Don#39;t Buy Without First Comparison Shopping。他们不会在货比三家之前付款。Chances are, if you#39;re ing this here, you#39;re likely also shopping online (80 percent of people who use the Internet have bought something by clicking). But wealthy shoppers are getting more shipping confirmation emails than others: According to a recent report by Martini Media and comScore, in the first quarter of this year, affluent shoppers were 47 percent more likely than buyers earning less than 0,000 annually to purchase something online。如果你正在读这篇文章,很有可能你会网购商品(80%的网上用户都曾经试过网购)但是那些富裕的买家可能网购的次数更加频繁:根据广告商Martini Media 和 comScore在今年上半年做的相关调查显示,年薪10万的人网购东西的可能性比其他人多出47%。Just as interestingly, wealthy online shoppers aren#39;t visiting luxury destinations as much as they#39;re visiting sites with mid-level pricing (think Macy#39;s). We know shopping online greatly lowers the likelihood of an impulse buy, but another major money-saving reason to buy from home is that you can easily do price comparisons. Plus, new apps such as Slice will even send you alerts when the price on an item you#39;ve purchased online drops so you can get a refund。有意思的是,他们去Net-a-Porter等奢饰品网站的次数少于去中等消费的网站的次数。我们都知道网购可以有效的抑制消费冲动,但是网购省钱还有另 一个重要理由,即你可以货比三家同时,“降价应用”这样的新网络应用可以在你已经购买的商品降价时向你发出通知,由此你可以获得一定退款。 /201310/260638Emissions from coal plants in China were responsible for a quarter of a million premature deaths in 2011 and are damaging the health of hundreds of thousands of Chinese children, according to a new study.根据一项新的研究,中国燃煤电厂排放的气体导致了2011年25万人过早死亡的结果,并且损害着几十万中国儿童的健康。The study by a US air pollution expert, commissioned by Greenpeace, comes as many areas in northern and eastern China have been experiencing hazardous levels of air pollution in recent weeks.这项研究是由一名受绿色和平组织委任的美国空气污染研究专家进行的。正好近几周,中国北部和东部的许多地区一直遭受着严重级别的空气污染。In some eastern cities including Shanghai, levels were off the index that tracks dangerous pollution, with schools closing and flights being cancelled or diverted. Sales of air purifiers and face masks have soared with many retailers selling out of stock as residents try to protect themselves from the poisonous smog. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces visibility was reduced to less than 50 metres earlier this week and in the city of Nanjing a red alert for pollution was maintained for five consecutive days.包括上海在内的一些东部城市中,污染等级超出了探测污染严重级别的指数,导致学校停课,航班取消或改变航道。空气净化器和面具的销售量一路飙升,许多零售商都卖出了已有的存货,因为市民们想保护自己,免受有毒烟雾的侵害。在江苏省和浙江省,这周刚开始能见度就降到不足50米。在南京市,连续五天都持续着空气污染红色预警。The analysis traced the chemicals which are made airborne from burning coal and found a number of health damages were caused as a result. It estimates that coal burning in China was responsible for reducing the lives of 260,000 people in 2011. It also found that in the same year it led to 320,000 children and 61,000 adults suffering from asthma, 36,000 babies being born with low weight and was responsible for 340,000 hospital visits and 141 million days of sick leave.该分析中还追查了由燃煤而产生的空中飘浮化学物质,并且发现这些化学物质会导致许多损害健康的结果。据估计,2011年中国的燃煤导致26万人减寿。并且在同一年,发现该污染还使32万儿童和6.1万成人遭受哮喘病的痛苦,3.6万体重过轻的婴儿出生。还导致了34万次的病房探病和1.41亿天的病假。;This study provides an unprecedentedly detailed picture of the health fallout from China#39;s coal burning,; said Dr Andrew Gray, a US-based expert on air pollution, who conducted the research. Using computer simulations, Gray said he was able to ;draw a clear map tracing the trail of health damages left by the coal fumes released by every power plant in China, untangling the contribution of individual companies, provinces and power stations to the air pollution crisis gripping the country.;安德鲁?格雷士(Dr Andrew Gray)是美国研究空气污染的专家,并且进行了这次的研究。他说:“这项研究就中国燃煤对人体健康带来负面影响的问题提供了一个前所未有的详细概况。”通过电脑模拟,格雷说他可以“画出一个清晰的地图,追踪探索中国每一个发电厂排放的煤烟所导致的损害健康的痕迹,弄清个体公司、省市还有发电厂各自导致空气污染的程度,毕竟这次污染危机是关乎整个国家的命运。”China#39;s air pollution problems frequently make headlines around the world.中国的空气污染问题频繁地登上各国的头版头条。Isabel Hilton, editor of China Dialogue, an independent website that publishes information and debate on the environment in China, said coal is the main cause of the country#39;s air pollution problems. Coal burning in China ;produces heavy metal pollution and produces particulate pollution on a scale that is getting quite extraordinary,; she said.《中外对话》(China Dialogue)是一个讨论中国环境问题及提供其资讯的独立网站。它的编辑伊莎贝尔?希尔顿(Isabel Hilton)说,煤炭是国家空气污染问题的主要原因。她还说中国的燃煤“导致重金属污染和粉尘污染,其规模相当惊人。”China is the world#39;s largest consumer of coal, which is its main energysource, and is responsible for around half the world#39;s coal consumption. The impacts of its reliance on coal are becoming more well known and recently there was much online discussion after an eight-year-old girl was diagnosed with lung cancer which her doctor blamed on air pollution.中国是世界最大的煤炭消耗国,煤炭是中国最主要的能源,也将近占据世界煤炭总消耗量的一半。中国对煤炭依赖的负面影响越来越被人们所熟知。最近,有个八岁的小女孩被诊断为肺癌,医生说是空气污染所致,这一事件引起了网上热烈的讨论。According to Gray#39;s study, while the growth of coal consumption has slowed, 570 new coal-fired plants are either being built or are planned, and if they go ahead would be responsible for a further 32,000 premature deaths each year.根据格雷的研究,虽然煤炭消耗量的增长速度下降了,但570个新燃煤电厂正处在建设或规划中。所以,如果继续下去,燃煤电厂的排放会导致每年增加3.2万过早死亡的人。In September, the Chinese government announced a plan to tackle the high levels of air pollution including for the first time measures to cut coal consumption. Under the plan, China aims to cut air pollution in some of the worst affected areas including Beijing by 2017.九月,中国政府公布了一项计划来控制严重的空气污染,包括首次公布削减煤炭使用量的措施。根据计划,中国旨在2017年前消除污染最严重地区的空气污染,包括北京。Hilton said that the reductions in the plan would not be enough to make a difference within a short time frame. ;It is going to be difficult to make a difference very shortly. Much more radical things will have to happen,; she said.希尔顿说该计划中的削减措施不会在短期内见效。她说:“在很短的时间内改变现状非常困难。要有更多彻底的,根治性的措施。”;The government has been forced into much greater transparency on the data,; she added. ;But I do think the ambition has to be raised quite a lot.;她还强调:“政府被迫在数据上提高了透明度,但我认为这种决心应该再大一点才行。” /201312/269424

Historically, the science of epidemiology was directed toward identifying and controlling epidemics of infectious disease. In a study just published in the New England Journal of Medicine, my colleagues and I highlight another important job for epidemiologists: identifying and controlling epidemics of medical care.历史上,流行病学的研究方向是确诊和控制广泛传播的传染病。我和同事们在《新英格兰医学杂志》(New England Journal of Medicine)上刚刚发表的一篇研究论文中指出,流行病专家还有另外一项任务:识别和控制医疗界造成的流行病。The setting is South Korea, where, over the last two decades, the incidence of thyroid cancer has increased fifteenfold. Nowhere in the world is the rate of any cancer growing faster.研究的背景是韩国。在过去20年里,这里甲状腺癌的发病率提高到了最初的15倍。全世界任何地方都没有哪种癌症能如此之快地增长。We’ve all been taught to seek biological explanations for a significant rise in disease — perhaps a new infectious agent or environmental exposure. But in South Korea, we are seeing something different: an epidemic of diagnosis.我们受过的教育都是,为发病率的显著提高寻找生物学上的解释,或许是新的病原体,或许是环境暴露。然而在韩国,我们看到了不同的情况,这种流行病是因为诊断造成的。In 1999 the government initiated a national health-screening program focused on reducing cancer and other common diseases. Although thyroid cancer screening was not included in the program, all it requires is a simple test — an ultrasound of the neck. Hospitals have ultrasound machines and so do many doctors’ offices. Both promoted thyroid cancer screening as an inexpensive add-on to the government program. It was an easy sell, particularly with the government, the medical community, the news media and cancer “survivors” praising the virtue of early cancer detection.1999年,韩国政府启动了一项全国性的体检计划,主要目的是减少癌症和常见病。尽管其中并不包括甲状腺癌筛查,但它只需要一个简单的步骤:颈部超声波检查。医院里有超声波设备,很多医生的诊所里也有。医院和医生都认为,它是政府计划之外一项廉价的补充检查,因而鼓励患者检查。而患者也很乐于接受,尤其是因为政府、医疗界、新闻媒体和癌症“生还者”都称赞,及早发现癌症有好处。In doing so they inadvertently highlighted the major harm of early detection: What was a rare cancer is now the most common cancer in South Korea.但这样做也意外地突显了及早诊断的巨大危害:一种本来罕见的癌症,成为了韩国最常见的癌症。Where did all those new thyroid cancers come from? They were always there. As early as 1947 pathologists recognized that, although it was a very rare cause of death, thyroid cancer was a frequent finding during autopsies. Studies have since shown that over a third of adults have thyroid cancer. Virtually all of these cancers are small “papillary thyroid cancers,” many of which will never become evident during a person’s life.那些新增的甲状腺癌患者是从哪里来的呢?他们其实一直存在。早在1947年,病理学家就发现,尽管极少成为死因,但是在尸检中经常发现死者患有甲状腺癌的情况。从那时起,研究就发现,超过三分之一的成年人患有甲状腺癌。其中几乎所有人患的都是微小的“甲状腺乳头状癌”,许多人一生中症状都不明显。Unless that person receives a screening ultrasound. In fact, virtually all the newly identified thyroid cancers in Korea are papillary thyroid cancers. How do we know this is not a real epidemic of disease? Because the number of Koreans dying from thyroid cancer has not changed. If the screening were saving lives, the death rate would decline, or increase more slowly as the epidemic sp — but not stay perfectly flat.除非这个人接受了超声波检查。事实上在韩国,几乎所有新确诊的甲状腺癌都是乳头状癌。我们怎么才能知道这不是真正的流行病呢?因为在韩国,死于甲状腺癌的人数并没有变化。如果超声检查挽救了患者的生命,那么死亡率应该降低才对,而如果流行病蔓延开来,死亡率应该缓慢上升才对——然而数据却完全没有起伏。An epidemic of diagnosis is not good for anyone’s health. Resources are needlessly diverted; people are needlessly scared. But the biggest problem is that it begets an epidemic of treatment.诊断呈现的流行病对任何人的健康都没有好处,而且它毫无必要地转移了资源,也毫无必要地惊吓了患者。然而最大的问题是,它在医疗体系内催生了过度治疗。The majority of patients given diagnoses of thyroid cancer have their thyroid gland removed. The thyroid is an important gland — it produces the hormones that control metabolism. Without it, patients may need lifelong thyroid replacement therapy. And it can take doctors a while to find the right dose for each individual. In the meantime, patients suffer from the effects of too little or too much thyroid hormone, including energy and weight fluctuations.多数被诊断患有甲状腺癌的患者,被切除了甲状腺。然而甲状腺是一个重要的腺体,它能分泌控制新陈代谢的激素。如果切除了,患者就可能会终生需要甲状腺替代治疗,而且医生可能需要一段时间才能为每一位患者找到恰当的剂量。与此同时,患者还要承受甲状腺素水平过低或过高的后果,包括精力和体重的波动。The surgery has other less common complications. In South Korea and the ed States about 10 percent of patients have problems with calcium metabolism and about 2 percent experience vocal cord paralysis. And, as with any surgery, there can be life-threatening effects — blood clots in the lungs, heart attacks and strokes. In about two of every 1,000 thyroid cancer operations, the patient dies. It’s rare, but it happens.这种手术也会产生一些并不十分常见的并发症。在韩国和美国,大约10%的患者产生了钙质代谢问题,约有2%的患者发生了声带麻痹。此外,就像任何一种手术一样,它可能会产生威胁生命的后果,如肺部血凝块、心肌梗死和中风。每一千例甲状腺癌手术中,大约会有两名患者身亡。很罕见,但的确会发生。Could what happened in South Korea happen here? Absolutely. Even without a concerted effort to promote screening, thyroid cancer incidence in the ed States is up threefold since 1975. To reverse this trend, we need to actively discourage early thyroid cancer detection.在韩国发生的情况也会在美国发生吗?绝对会。尽管没有各方同心协力推动筛查,美国的甲状腺病例自1975年以来也已经提高到了最初的三倍。要想扭转这种趋势,我们需要积极地劝阻甲状腺癌的早期检查。The virtue of early detection is so ingrained and so appealing that many assume that screening can only be good for you. But that’s not true. The Korean experience illustrates the downside of trying to find cancer early: overdiagnosis and overtreatment. The problem is greatest for thyroid and prostate cancer, but also exists for cancers of the lung, breast, skin and kidney. And then there is all the angst surrounding screening — that can’t be good for anyone’s health.及早检查有好处的观念根深蒂固,而且也很吸引人,所以许多人都认为,做一下检查只会有好处。然而事实并非如此。韩国的经验显示出,试图早期诊断癌症的做法有负面的影响:过度诊断和过度治疗。甲状腺癌和前列腺癌的问题最为严重,然而对肺癌、乳腺癌、皮肤癌、肾癌也存在。当然还有对于检查的焦躁,这可是对任何人的健康都不会有好处的。Of course, screening makes sense in some situations: in particular for people who are at a genuinely high risk for the cancer — those with multiple cancer deaths in their family history. People at average risk who expect to live long enough to experience the potential benefit in the future — and who are willing to accept the chance of harm from unneeded treatment now — may also decide that the screening makes sense for them.当然,检查在一些情况下是有意义的,尤其是癌症真正的高危患者:家族内有多人死于癌症的患者。患病风险中等,但预期寿命足够长,未来可以体验到潜在收益的人——以及那些愿意接受现在并不需要的治疗带来的受到损害的可能性的人——或许也会认定接受检查是合理的。Nevertheless, those interested in early detection may want to concern themselves with the question of how early. Sure, we would rather diagnose cancer in a small breast lump than wait until it develops into a large breast mass. But it may be excessive to extrapolate from that to searching for microscopic cancers. Many of the thyroid cancers found in South Korea were less than a centimeter in size. If we look for earlier cancers, we will always find more. And, at some point, we identify too many things that are better off left unfound. In short, having doctors not look too hard for early cancer is in your interest.尽管如此,有兴趣及早检查的人们,也应该考虑一下多早算早的问题。当然,我们宁愿早些诊断微小的乳腺肿块是不是癌症,也不愿意坐视它发展成大肿块。但如果就此推论,应当寻找显微镜才能看到的微小肿块,恐怕就过头了。韩国发现的许多甲状腺癌变的尺寸不足一厘米。如果我们去寻找癌变的话,总能发现更多病例。但超过了一个限度,我们确诊出的问题就太多了,还不如让它们留在那里不被发现好。简而言之,让医生不要那么热衷于发现早期的癌变,符合患者的利益。That’s where epidemiology comes in. Too many epidemiologists concern themselves not with controlling infectious disease, but with hoping to find small health effects of environmental exposures — or worse, uncertain effects of minor genetic alterations. Perhaps they should instead monitor the more important risk to human health: epidemics of medical care.这正是流行病学的意义。太多的流行病专家不是关注于控制传染病,而是希望寻找环境暴露因素对健康产生的微小影响,更糟的是,寻找微小基因差异可能产生的影响。或许他们应该去关注人类健康更重要的风险:医疗界造成的流行病。 /201411/341588

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