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哈尔滨市第一医院体检快问社区哈尔滨松北区人流好不好

2020年02月27日 09:08:34    日报  参与评论()人

黑龙江维多利亚女子医院人流价格哈尔滨中心医院处女膜修复阴道紧缩术白带异常ANGELS CAMP, Calif. — IN a normal year, no one in California looks twice at a neighbor’s lawn, that mane of bluegrass thriving in a sun-blasted desert. Or casts a scornful gaze at a fresh-planted almond grove, saplings that now stand accused of future water crimes. Or wonders why your car is conspicuously clean, or whether a fish deserves to live when a cherry tree will die.加利福尼亚州天使营——在正常年份里,加利福尼亚州没有任何人,会往邻居家的草坪多看一眼那荒漠骄阳下繁茂生长的六月禾草,也不会有人将鄙夷的眼光投向刚种下不久的扁桃树——现如今,这种树苗被指太过浪费水,会在未来导致水资源短缺。同样不会有人怀疑,你家的汽车怎么那么干净?或者去思考,该活下来的,是一条鱼还是一颗樱桃树?Of course, there is nothing normal about the fourth year of the great drought: According to climate scientists, it may be the worst arid spell in 1,200 years. For all the fields that will go fallow, all the forests that will catch fire, all the wells that will come up dry, the lasting impact of this drought for the ages will be remembered, in the most exported term of California start-ups, as a disrupter.当然,这场进入了第4个年头的大旱灾没有任何正常可言:根据气候科学家的说法,这可能是1200年以来最严重的连续干旱期。因为那些将会被迫停耕的农田、着火的森林和干涸的水井,本轮干旱的持久影响将被铭记良久。用加州初创公司最出名的用语来说,这是一种“干扰因子”。“We are embarked upon an experiment that no one has ever tried,” said Gov. Jerry Brown in early April, in ordering the first mandatory statewide water rationing for cities.在4月初的时候,加州州长杰瑞·布朗(Jerry Brown)史上首次下令施行全州范围内的强制性市镇用水配给制度。“我们正在进行前无古人的尝试,”他说。Surprising, perhaps even disappointing to those with schadenfreude for the nearly 39 million people living in year-round sunshine, California will survive. It’s not going to blow away. The economy, now on a robust rebound, is not going to collapse. There won’t be a Tom Joad load of S.U.V.s headed north. Rains, and snow to the high Sierra, will eventually return.不过,让那些对全年生活在阳光之下的3900万加州居民感到幸灾乐祸的人意外,甚或失望的是,加州将存活下来,而不会就此毁灭。这里的经济在强劲反弹,不会崩溃。也不会有成群结队的越野车像汤姆·约德(Tom Joad,《愤怒的葡萄》中的主角,因干旱、经济困难、农业变革、止赎和沙尘暴等原因逃离家园前往加州——译注)那样向北逃荒而去。雨水终将再次降临,内华达山脉的积雪也将重现。But California, from this drought onward, will be a state transformed. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s was human-caused, after the grasslands of the Great Plains were ripped up, and the land thrown to the wind. It never fully recovered. The California drought of today is mostly nature’s hand, diminishing an Eden created by man. The Golden State may recover, but it won’t be the same place.然而,经历了这次大旱,加州将改头换面。上世纪30年代的沙尘暴属人为所致,是因为北美大平原的草地被毁,土地任由风化侵蚀。由此造成的损害从未完全恢复。加州目前的旱情则大多源于自然原因,破坏的是这座人造的伊甸园。人称“金州”的加州也许能够从中恢复过来,但一切都将不同于以往。Looking to the future, there is also the grim prospect that this dry spell is only the start of a “megadrought,” made worse by climate change. California has only about one year of water supply left in its reservoirs. What if the endless days without rain become endless years?展望未来,还存在一种严酷的可能性,也就是本轮持续的干旱不过是一次“特大旱灾”的起始阶段,并会因气候变化而恶化。加州的水库中目前仅剩1年左右的供水量。假如连续无降水的时间从按日子计变成了按年头计,又将如何?In the cities of a changed California, brown is the new green. A residential lawn anywhere south of, say, Sacramento, is aly considered an indulgence. “If the only person walking on your lawn is the person mowing it,” said Felicia Marcus, chairwoman of the State Water Resources Control Board, then maybe it should be taken out. The state wants people to convert lawns to drought-tolerant landscaping, or fake grass.在经历这种变化的加州大小市镇,绿色植被正变成褐色。在诸如萨克拉门托以南的地区,家庭草坪已被视作某种奢侈品。加州水资源管理委员会(State Water Resources Control Board)主席费利西娅·马库斯(Felicia Marcus)说,“如果你家草坪唯一的过客是割草的人,”那也许就该放弃了。州里希望民众把草坪的植被换成耐旱的品种,或者种上人造草皮。Artificial lakes filled with Sierra snowmelt will become baked-mud valleys, surrounded by ugly bathtub rings. Some rivers will dry completely — at least until a normal rain year. A few days ago, there was a bare trickle from the Napa, near the town of St. Helena, flowing through some of the most valuable vineyards on the planet. The state’s massive plumbing system, one of the biggest in the world, needs adequate snow in order to serve farmers in the Central Valley and techies in Silicon Valley. This year, California set a record low Sierra snowpack in April — 5 percent of normal — following the driest winter since records have been kept.靠内华达山脉的融雪补充水源的人工湖将被晒成硬邦邦的土质谷地,四周满是丑陋的污渍。一些河流会完全干涸,而这种情况至少是要延续到雨水充沛的年份。就在几天前,圣海伦娜附近的纳帕河仅有一条涓涓细流,流经地球上最具价值的一些葡萄园。加州庞大的管道输水系统位居世界前列,却需要合适的雪量才能为中央谷地的务农者和硅谷的技术人员提供务。经历了有纪录以来干旱程度最严重的冬季之后,加州内华达山脉今年4月份的积雪量创下历史新低,仅为正常年份的5%。To Californians stunned by their bare mountains, there was no more absurd moment in public life recently than when James Inhofe, the Republican senator from Oklahoma who is chairman of the environment and public works committee, held up a snowball in February as evidence of America’s hydraulic bounty in the age of climate change.对于因山顶光秃而感到震惊的加州人来说,近期公共生活中最荒诞的一幕莫过于,参议院环境与公共事务委员会主席、来自俄克拉何马州的共和党人詹姆斯·英霍夫(James Inhofe)在2月份的时候手拿一个雪球,以此明在气候变化的背景下美国仍水资源充沛。You can see the result of endless weeks of cloudless skies in New Melones Lake, here in Calaveras County in the foothills east of the Central Valley, where Mark Twain made a legend of a jumping frog. The state’s fourth largest reservoir, holding water for farmers, and for fish downstream, is barely 20 percent full. It could be completely drained by summer’s end.在中央谷地东部丘陵地带的卡拉韦拉斯县——马克·吐温(Mark Twain)让当地的跳蛙出了名——可以看到连续多周晴朗无云的天气对新梅洛内斯湖的影响。这座湖是加州第四大的水库,为务农者和下游的鱼类储存水源,如今却连20%的容量都没达到。今夏结束的时候,它可能会完全干涸。It’s a sad sight — a warming puddle, where the Stanislaus River once ran through it. At full capacity, with normal rainfall, New Melones should have enough water for nearly two million households for a year.真是伤感——斯塔尼斯劳斯河曾经流经的地方,现在成了一座逐渐干涸的小池塘。容量饱和、雨量正常的时候,新梅洛内斯湖本应足以为近200万家庭供水1年。Even worse is the Lake McClure reservoir, impounding the spectral remains of the Merced River as it flows out of Yosemite National Park. It’s at 10 percent of capacity. In a normal spring, the reservoir holds more than 600,000 acre-feet of water. As April came to a close, it was at 104,000 acre-feet — with almost no snowmelt on the way. (The measurement is one acre filled to a depth of a foot, or 325,851 gallons.) That’s the surface disruption in a state that may soon be unrecognizable in places.更糟糕的是麦克卢尔湖水库。这里储存的是默塞德河流经约塞米蒂国家公园后剩下的规模不定的水资源。在正常的春季,这座水库的水量逾7.4亿立方米,而到今年4月将尽的时候,却只容纳了1.5亿立方米,而且几乎没有融雪可以补充。加州的不少地方可能很快就会变得面目全非,这些不过是表面的变化。The morality tale behind California’s verdant prosperity will most certainly change. In the old narrative, the evil city took water from powerless farmers. Swimming pools in greater Los Angeles were filled with liquid that could have kept orchards alive in the Owens Valley, to the north.加州繁荣的植被经济背后的道德逻辑也很可能会有所转变。旧日的说法是,邪恶的市政府从务农者手中抢夺水源。大洛杉矶地区的游泳池用掉的水,本可以让欧文斯谷往北的果园均得以健康生长。It was hubris, born in the words of the city’s chief water engineer, William Mulholland, when he opened the gates of the Los Angeles Aqueduct in 1913 with an immortal proclamation: “There it is. Take it.”1913年的时候,洛杉矶水务部门的总工程师威廉·马尔霍兰(William Mulholland)用一句传世的宣言开启了洛杉矶引水渠的闸门:“水就在那里,尽管取而用之。”此番话语,尽显傲慢。But now, just about everyone in California knows that it requires a gallon of water to grow a single almond, or that agriculture accounts for 80 percent of the water used by humans here. Meanwhile, the cities have become leaders in conservation. It takes 106 gallons of water to produce an ounce of beef — which is more than the average San Francisco Bay Area resident uses in a day. Mayor Eric Garcetti of Los Angeles wants to reduce the amount of water the city purchases by 50 percent in the next decade, cutting back through aggressive use of wastewater and conservation.然而到了今天,加州几乎每个人都知道:种出一粒扁桃,需要耗费1加仑的水(约合3.79升);农业消耗了本州80%的人类用水量。与此同时,这里的各座市镇成为了节水方面的先锋。每生产1盎司(约合28克)的牛肉需要耗费106加仑的水,比旧金山湾区居民的人均日用水量还多。洛杉矶市长埃里克·加希提(Eric Garcetti)希望,在未来10年间将该市的购水量削减50%,而途径是大量利用回收废水及节水。It’s outlandish, urban critics note, for big farm units to be growing alfalfa — which consumes about 20 percent of the state’s irrigation water — or raising cattle, in a place with a third of the rainfall of other states. And by exporting that alfalfa and other thirsty crops overseas, the state is essentially shipping its precious water to China.城市里的批评人士指出,在降水量仅为其他地方三分之一的加州,让大农场养牛或种苜蓿实属荒谬。仅苜蓿种植就消耗了加州20%左右的灌溉用水。而通过将苜蓿等耗水作物出口海外,加州实际上是在把宝贵的水资源输送给中国。Still, casting California farmers — who produce about half of the nation’s fruits, nuts and vegetables — as crony capitalist water gluttons may not be entirely fair. Yes, the water is subsidized, through taxpayer-funded dams, canals and pumping systems. But that water, in some cases, ends up as habitat for birds and wildlife. As it drains away, it can recharge badly depleted underground aquifers. Farmers have aly let more than 400,000 acres go fallow and took a billion hit last year. They may add 600,000 acres to that total this year. Almonds, after all, are a healthy food source.然而,把承担着全国水果、坚果和蔬菜产量一半的加州农民,形容成吞噬水资源的裙带资本家,也许是有失公允的。没错,通过纳税人出资修建水坝、渠道和水泵系统,水是得到公共补贴的。但在某些情况下,这些水会成为鸟类和野生动物的栖息地。随着水渗入地下,严重退化的地下含水层可以得到喘息之机。目前,已有超过40万英亩的土地休耕,加州农民去年为此承受了20亿美元的损失。今年可能还会再增加60万英亩的休耕面积。而扁桃仁毕竟还是一种健康的食物来源。The new morality tale becomes further muddled when you consider that San Francisco, praised for its penurious water ways, gets its life-supporting liquid from the Hetch Hetchy dam, in Yosemite. Many people, dating from the sainted John Muir, believe that flooding that mountain valley was one of the bigger crimes against nature in California history.在用水方面以小气著称的旧金山,生活用水依靠约塞米蒂的赫奇-赫奇水坝,这就让眼下这则道义故事的情节愈发错综复杂起来。很多人认为,淹没那里的山谷是加州历史上对自然犯下的最严重罪行之一,这种说法最早出自如今已经被视为圣人的约翰·缪尔(John Muir)。And not every city is Spartan with its water. On any given day you can find, as I did in a new housing development in the foothills east of Sacramento, water running down the street — at a flow rate that looked bigger than that coming from the anemic Merced River. It was pouring onto a grass median strip, and then spilling over, in a development called the Estates at Blackstone.并非所有城市在用水上都能厉行节约。水在大街上白白流着的情形司空见惯,我在萨克拉门托东部山麓的一处新住宅楼盘中就看到了——流量似乎要高过日趋干涸的美熹德河。在一处叫做黑石庄园(Estates at Blackstone)的楼盘里,水被不断灌入一条绿化隔离带,然后满溢到路上。Or consider that wealthy communities — say, Portola Valley, woodsy home to many an environmentally conscious tech multimillionaire — use far more water per capita than do the poor of Compton, in the Los Angeles area. When cost is no object, there is very little incentive to cut back.再看看那些富人社区——比如绿树成荫的波托拉谷(Portola Valley),许多有环保意识的亿万富豪就住在这里——人均用水量远比洛杉矶地区的穷人社区康普顿要高得多。当费用不在考虑时,也就很难找到节水的动力了。But there is no getting around the fact that agriculture, for all its water needs, still produces barely 2 percent of the state’s gross product, and employs only about 3 percent of its workers.然而无法回避的事实是,水需求如此之高的农业,只产出了全州总产值的2%,雇佣了仅3%左右的工人。Fair or not, it seems incongruous that farmers in the San Joaquin Valley are still planting new almond trees — they’ve nearly doubled the crop since 2005 — while people in the cities kill their lawns and dash in and out of low-flow showers.公平与否暂且不论,圣华金谷的农民至今仍在增种扁桃树,这似乎是有些不合时宜的。自2005年至今,这种作物的规模将近翻倍,而城市里的人们却在放弃他们的草坪,或是在淋浴头的涓涓细流下匆匆洗澡。The idea that California could have it all — a pool in every suburban backyard, new crops in a drought, wild salmon in rivers now starved of oxygen — is fading fast. There is only so much more “pop per drop,” as Marcus, the State Water Resources Control Board chairwoman, said, or neighbor snitching on neighbor, until the urban majority resists and demands a change in allocation.在加利福尼亚州每个郊区居民的后院建一个游泳池,在干旱地区种植更多作物,拥有野生鲑鱼(它们现在正饱受缺氧之苦),这些想法目前正在迅速消退。这里现在只有加州水资源管理委员会主席马库斯女士所说的“珍惜每一滴水”,或邻里之间互相监督,直到城市中的大多数人进行抵抗并要求在供水配给上做出改变。What will come, then, from this disrupting drought is likely to be a shift of power. The urban “almond shaming” chorus is quick to note that the crop uses enough water to support 75 percent of the state#39;s population. In other words, there would be no water shortage in San Diego or Los Angeles if nut growers shut off the pumps.这场严重的干旱所带来的很可能是力量的转变。城市中的“杏仁之耻”之歌(种植杏仁需要消耗大量水——译注)告诉人们,种植该种作物需要的水分足以持加州75%的人口。换句话说,如果坚果种植者切断水泵,圣地亚哥或洛杉矶将不会有缺水问题。“Imagine if somebody ever said, `Let#39;s have a vote on how to use California#39;s water,”#39; said Daniel Beard, a former Bureau of Recreation commissioner and a critic of federal dam building. “That#39;s the last thing big agricultural interests would want.”“想象一下如果有人说,‘让我们就加州如何使用水源进行一次投票’,主要的农业利益相关方是最不希望见到这种情况的。”丹尼尔·比尔德说,比尔德是前休憩局(Bureau of Recreation)专员,同时是一位联邦大坝修建的批评者。The food industry is ripe for disruption. The land that has been left fallow now in the Central Valley is still less than 5 percent of all the irrigation acreage in California. Another 5 percent would leave most of the industry standing, and leaner. Low-value, high-water crops would disappear, as is aly happening.食品行业的变局时机已成熟。目前在中央山谷已经休耕的土地仅占加州灌溉面积的不到5%。再增加5%,行业的大部分将能存活下来,并且更加精练。低价值、高水耗的作物会消失,这一点已经在发生。Absent a vote of the people, the free market could end up as the decider. The big city water districts have more than enough money to buy farm water in a freewheeling exchange. Indeed, they’ve been making numerous purchases for years — though limited by complex water contracts and infrastructure that makes it difficult to pipe large amounts from one place to the other.在没有公众投票的情况下,自由市场会成为裁决者。在交易不受限制的情况下,大城市供水区完全有能力以任意价格购买农业用水。事实上,多年来它们已经做出了许多收购——尽管在复杂的用水合同和基础设施制约下,将大量的水从一处输送到另一处是有困难的。In addition, one fear of making water an open-market commodity is that rich and politically powerful communities would get all the clean water they needed, while poor public districts would be left out. A class system around breathable air has aly developed in China. Is abundant water the next must-have possession of the 1 percent?此外,将水变成一种自由市场商品的办法还存在一个隐忧,那就是届时权贵阶层也许能尽情取用清洁的水,而贫穷的公共社区就无缘消受了。在中国,围绕着可呼吸的空气已经形成了一个阶级体系。充足的用水会成为又一个权贵的身份象征吗?Agriculture will not give up its perch atop the power pyramid without a fight. Water that goes from the mountains to the sea is a waste, farmers say. The drought is “a man-made” disaster, as Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard executive who will likely run for the Republican presidential nomination, claims. She blames environmentalists for blocking major dam projects.农业不会将自己在权力金字塔尖的地位拱手让出。农民们说,让水从山间流向大海是暴殄天物。可能会角逐共和党总统候选人提名的前惠普公司(Hewlett-Packard)高管卡莉·菲奥里纳(Carly Fiorina)声称,旱灾是“一场人为”灾难。她将此归罪于阻挠大型水坝工程的环保人士。“California is a classic case of liberals being willing to sacrifice other people’s lives and livelihoods at the altar of their ideology,” she said on Glenn Beck’s radio program a few weeks ago. Of course, one of those elites was Ronald Reagan, who as governor signed legislation in 1973 that protected the Eel River in Northern California from dam builders.“自由派会用他人的生命和生活作祭品,供奉自己的意识形态,加州就是一个经典案例,”她在几周前参加格伦·贝克(Glenn Beck)的电台节目时说。她说的那些精英人士,当然就包括罗纳德·里根(Ronald Reagan)了,他在1973年作为州长签署了一份法案,旨在让北加州的鳗河免遭水坝建设者的侵扰。“The environment is aly taking a big hit in this drought,” said Ellen Hanak, director of the Water Policy Center at the nonprofit Public Policy Institute of California. “My sense is that Californians are pretty supportive of both a strong agricultural economy and a healthy environment.”“在这次旱灾中,环境已然遭受重创,”加州公共政策研究所(Public Policy Institute of California)的水政策中心(Water Policy Center)主任艾伦·哈纳克(Ellen Hanak)说。“我的感觉是,加州人对强劲的农业经济和健康的环境都是非常持的。”Big new reservoir projects — a return of the concrete empire — are doubtful. Without a government subsidy, cost is the biggest obstacle. Farmers certainly aren#39;t going to pay the billions now footed by federal taxpayers. And then: Where is the “new” water going to come from? Underground, wells are probing ever deeper, sucking aquifers dry, the land sinking at a dramatic rate. Overhead, the sky is unreliable.新建大型水库工程——回到混凝土帝国——同样受到质疑。没有政府的津贴,成本将是最大的障碍。农民当然不会自掏腰包出资亿万美元,这些钱现在是由联邦纳税人付的。那么,“新的”水源从哪里来呢?在地下,地下井被前所未有地深挖,地下砂石含水层变得干旱,地面沉降速度可观。在头顶上,天空同样不可依靠。Desalination, making seawater potable, is another option, which Carlsbad, north of San Diego, is pursuing with a huge plant under construction. Australia went down this road during its epic drought in the 2000s. But the plants proved to be so prohibitively expensive to run that four of them were mothballed. Billions were spent without producing a drop of clean water.将海水脱盐以便饮用是另一个选择。圣地亚哥北部的卡尔斯巴德就正在建造一个大型的海水脱盐工厂。澳大利亚在21世纪初的大干旱时期也走过这条路。但此类工厂已被实造价过高,他们其中的4个已经封存。花费数十亿元却没有造出一滴纯净水。What California still has, in great supply, is ingenuity. Three years ago, Mitt Romney compared the state to bankrupt Greece. It was laughed at and written off by conservative pundits. California now has a budget surplus and led the nation in job growth last year — far outpacing Texas.加州依然拥有取之不竭的创造力。3年前米特·罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)将这个州比作破产的希腊。保守派的专家大老对它大加嘲弄和鄙夷。如今的加州已经实现预算盈余,去年的就业增长全国领先——远超德克萨斯。The drought may indeed be a long overdue bill for creating an oasis civilization. But therein lies a solution. The Golden State is an invention, with lives to match. If the drought continues, California will be forced to rely even more on what has long sustained it — imagination. Not a bad thing to have too much of.也许这场旱灾的确是对多年来建造绿洲文明所欠债务的一次清算。但它是可以解决的。“黄金之州”是一个发明,这里的生活是与此相称的。如果干旱继续下去,加州将比以往更加依赖一直在撑它的东西——想象力。这东西是不嫌多的。 /201505/373436哈市哪里看妇科好 Li Mingyang only joined Alibaba’s investment platform one month ago but he has aly transferred almost all the cash in his bank account – nearly Rmb200,000 (,000) – to the online fund.李明洋(音译)一个月前刚刚开始投资阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的投资平台——余额宝,而如今他已把自己户头里几乎所有资金——近20万元人民币(合3.2万美元)——都转移到这家在线基金了。He is far from alone. More than 30m people in China have signed up to Yu’E Bao, or “Leftover Treasure”, only six months since its launch.他的情况远非个例。自上线仅6个月以来,余额宝在中国已有了逾3000万注册用户。Initially pitched by the Chinese ecommerce group as a platform for its users to manage excess funds in their online payment accounts, Yu’E Bao is becoming something far more powerful: a straight-up substitute for traditional bank deposits.起初,阿里巴巴对余额宝的宣传定位是,帮助用户管理在线付账务里富余资金的平台。如今,余额宝正在变成一款比这一定位强大得多的产品,即传统存款的直接替代品。“There’s no point in keeping money in the bank any more. This is just as reliable, more flexible and you can earn a lot more from it,” Mr Li says.李明洋表示:“再也没什么理由把钱存了。(余额宝)这种方式同样可靠,又更灵活,收益也大多了。”A quick swipe of the Yu’E Bao app on his phone shows the Shanghai-based editor that he has earned more interest on his account over the past day than 94 per cent of other local users – an indication Mr Li is one of the bigger Alibaba converts, though not the biggest. “This is fun, almost like a computer game,” he says with a belly laugh.他在手机里的余额宝应用上轻划一下,屏幕上显示出,这位生活在上海的编辑过去一天里赚取的收益超过了94%的上海用户——这表明李明洋是一位较大的阿里巴巴“皈依者”(尽管不是最大的)。他大笑道:“这很有意思,几乎像是在打电脑游戏。”For every Rmb12 that companies and individuals have deposited in Chinese banks since June, they placed roughly Rmb1 in their Yu’E Bao accounts, according to Financial Times calculations based on official data. While it remains tiny compared with total deposits in the Chinese banking system, this migration of cash from banks to the Alibaba platform is only speeding up.据英国《金融时报》基于官方数据的计算,自6月份以来,中国企业和个人每向中国各存入12元人民币,就会往余额宝户头存入约1元人民币。尽管与中国体系的存款总额相比,余额宝吸纳的资金仍然很少,但资金从流向余额宝的速度正在不断加快。In the process, it threatens to upend the rules of China’s state-protected financial sector, eroding banks’ profit model and shifting power to savers in a way that was scarcely imaginable at the start of this year.在这一过程中,余额宝可能会颠覆中国受到国家保护的金融业行业的规则,逐步破坏业盈利模式,并将权力转移至存款人一方,这在今年年初的时候是人们几乎无法想象的。Other Chinese tech companies are getting in on the act. Tencent, developer of the hugely popular messaging app WeChat, is said to be designing a fund platform similar to Yu’E Bao. Baidu, the search engine company, began marketing investment products in October.其他中国科技企业也在采取行动。广受欢迎的消息应用微信(WeChat)的开发者腾讯(Tencent),据说也在设计一个与余额宝类似的基金平台。搜索引擎公司百度(Baidu)则已于10月份开始推广其理财产品。“Internet companies, with their ability to instantly reach millions of consumers, have aly started to subtly change the competitive dynamic in finance,” says Ernan Cui, an analyst with GK Dragonomics, a Beijing-based research firm.总部位于北京的研究机构龙洲经讯(GK Dragonomics)的分析师Ernan Cui表示:“互联网企业能够即时联系到成百万名消费者,这已开始微妙地改变金融领域的竞争态势。”Some see it in even starker terms. “This could be a game-changer. It is the biggest threat to the low- and middle-income customer base of banks,” says an analyst with an international bank who asked to remain anonymous as he was not authorised to speak to media.还有些人的看法则更一针见血。某跨国的一名分析师表示:“这可能会彻底改变游戏规则。就中低收入顾客群而言,互联网金融是面临的最大威胁。”这名分析师要求在本次报道中保持匿名,因为他尚未获得就此对媒体发表意见的授权。Richer customers have aly started shifting their funds into banks’ wealth management products, which offer much better returns than regulated deposit accounts but have high minimum investment thresholds. With Yu’E Bao, users can invest as much or as little as they want.手头更宽裕的顾客已开始将资金转移至的理财产品上,这类产品比利率受到管制的存款回报率更高,不过投资门槛很高。而余额宝用户的投资数额没有上限也没有下限。Moreover, just like demand deposits at banks, users can withdraw their money from Yu’E Bao whenever they want. But while demand deposits earn an annualised rate of 0.35 per cent in banks – a level capped by the government to ensure that banks have plump profit margins – Yu’E Bao rates have averaged about 5 per cent over the past month.另外,和活期存款一样,余额宝用户能随时从余额宝账户提取资金。如今活期存款年利率只有0.35%(为了确保能获得丰厚的利润,政府将活期存款利率限制在这一水平),而过去一个月余额宝的平均年化收益率则为约5%。Little wonder that it has drawn such rampant demand. Launched in June, Yu’E Bao has in short order become China’s most successful money market fund. As of last month it had raised Rmb100bn, the first to reach that milestone.因此,余额宝带来如此巨大的需求也就毫不奇怪了。自6月份上线以来,余额宝很快成为了中国最成功的货币市场基金。到上个月为止,余额宝已筹集了1000亿元人民币,是首只达到千亿级别的货币市场基金。Behind the Yu’E Bao brand name stands Tianhong Asset Management, in which Alibaba bought a majority stake in October. Tianhong invests all the Yu’E Bao cash in money market funds, mainly consisting of interbank loans and some short-term debt securities, according to analysts. So the cash still largely ends up with banks, but rather than paying a government-controlled rate for it, they pay whatever is the going market price for money.站在余额宝身后的那家基金公司是天弘基金管理有限公司(Tianhong Asset Management),今年10月阿里巴巴收购了该基金大部分股权。分析人士称,天弘将所有余额宝资金都投入了货币市场基金,主要包括间贷款及部分短期债务券。因此,余额宝的现金大部分最终仍流入,不过这些现金的回报率是按照市场价格确定的,而不是按照由政府控制的利率确定。It is, in other words, ushering in interest rate deregulation in a big way. This week’s spike in Chinese interbank rates in part reflects the growing competition for deposits. Given that regulators have been loosening their grip on interest rates but want to proceed in a gradual manner, the success of Yu’E Bao and other internet-based money market funds poses a big challenge to that strategy and could yet invite more scrutiny.换句话说,余额宝在以一种宏观方式走利率去监管化的道路。上周中国间利率的急剧攀升部分反映出间日益激烈的揽储竞争。监管机构一直在放松对利率的管制,不过他们打算以一种渐进方式推进利率市场化进程。有鉴于此,余额宝及其他基于互联网的货币市场基金的成功对这一渐进式策略构成了巨大挑战,并仍有可能招致严格审查。“The banking network will always have its place in the financial architecture, and the government will keep its hands on it, so I don’t think it will let Alibaba become a huge threat. It will be more of an addition,” says Billy Leung, an analyst with the RHB Research Institute.RHB研究所分析师Billy Leung表示:“网络始终会在金融体系中占有自己的位置,政府也会继续插手。因此,我认为政府不会容许阿里巴巴发展为一个巨大威胁,阿里巴巴更有可能成为的一种补充。”Alibaba downplays the challenge Yu’E Bao poses to banks. “The users that our platforms are serving may not necessarily overlap with those that are being served by the traditional banking and financial services industry,” says Alipay, Alibaba’s online payment system.阿里巴巴也在淡化余额宝对业构成的挑战。该集团在线付系统付宝(Alipay)表示:“我们的平台所务的客户,与传统和金融务业务的客户不一定重合。”But in recent days Alibaba has launched an aggressive marketing campaign, plastering subway stations in Shanghai and Beijing with ads that leave little doubt the company has banks in its sights.不过,阿里巴巴最近开始了一场咄咄逼人的营销活动。在北京和上海的地铁站里,贴着阿里巴巴的广告,这些广告的内容令人不能不怀疑它已将视为对手。“The Yu’E Bao annualised return is nearly 14 times higher than the demand deposit rate,” the ads blare. “It’s a wallet that makes you money.”广告中高调声称:“余额宝累计收益率(年化)……是活期存款的近14倍。”还有句广告词说:“付宝钱包,会赚钱的钱包。” /201312/270226哈尔滨妇科体检医院

大兴安岭四维彩超多少钱Subway goes all-natural赛百味将使用全天然食材Subway restaurants will remove artificial flavors, colors and preservatives from its in North America, becoming the latest restaurant chain to embrace all-natural ingredients.赛百味位于北美的餐厅将不再使用人工香料、色素和防腐剂,成为又一家在食品中使用全天然成分的连锁餐厅。Subway is facing fiercer competition from fast-casual chains such as Panera B Co and Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc, which tout the purity of their s.Last year, the Subway chain#39;s domestic sales fell 3.3%.赛百味正面临来自帕尼罗面包和契普多墨西哥烤肉等休闲快餐连锁的激烈竞争,该公司去年在美国本土的销售额下降了3.3%,而后两家连锁店正是以纯天然食材为卖点的。 /201506/379067哈尔滨医院子宫肌瘤 American fast food, once a refuge amid China’s food scandals, is joining the ranks of the disgraced.美国快餐曾经是中国食品丑闻中的一片净土,如今也成了不光的对象。Early this week, McDonald’s locations across Beijing, Shanghai and the country were only offering fish burgers after the Chinese subsidiary of OSI, the McDonald’s and KFC-parent Yum! Brands supplier based in Illinois, said it would recall all meat products made at its Shanghai subsidiary.从本周早些时候开始,北京、上海和中国其他地区的麦当劳餐厅(McDonald’s)只提供鱼肉汉堡。之前,麦当劳和肯德基(KFC)母公司百胜餐饮集团(Yum! Brands)的供应商——总部位于伊利诺伊州的福喜集团(OSI)宣布,将召回由上海福喜生产的所有肉类产品。The situation has been snowballing since last week, when a local Chinese TV report showed employees using rotten or expired products for ground meat. Authorities shut down the plant and Shanghai police detained five employees.上周,中国一家地方电视台报道,上海福喜的员工使用腐烂或过期的产品制作碎肉,之后,情况愈演愈烈。相关部门关闭了工厂,福喜五名员工被上海警方拘留。This is the second scandal in as many years to hit KFC in China, and insiders are seriously asking whether its reputation has been irreparably hurt. McDonald’s, meanwhile, was a standard bearer for food safety in China and its meat supplier OSI was considered one of the world’s best.这是肯德基多年以来在中国遭遇的第二起丑闻,有内部人士担心其声誉是否会受到不可挽回的伤害。而麦当劳一直是中国食品安全方面的楷模,其供应商福喜集团也曾被认为是全球最好的肉类供应商。“As a global supplier of protein, [OSI] claimed to have higher standards,” said Richard Brubaker, founder of consultancy Collective Responsibility and an adjunct professor of sustainability at the China-Europe International Business School in Shanghai. “They weren’t proven to be any better.”咨询公司Collective Responsibility创始人、上海中欧国际商学院(China-Europe International Business School)可持续发展兼职教授理查德o布鲁贝克表示:“作为一家跨国肉类供应商,[福喜集团]曾宣称其遵守更高的标准。结果,他们没有明比其他公司做得更好。”The blame for the latest food scandal in China lies squarely on McDonald’s and the rest of the American brands. When suppliers like OSI’s Shanghai subsidiary skirt the rules, American companies are supposed to catch the problem and fix it because they know China’s regulators can’t keep up.对于中国近期爆发的食品丑闻,批评的矛头都指向了麦当劳和其他美国品牌。当福喜集团上海分公司逃避法规监管时,美国公司应该发现并解决问题,因为他们知道,中国监管部门并不能了解实情。China’s food system is highly fragmented—there are a couple hundred million small farms in the country and livestock is almost as scattered. Chinese regulations are improving but officials still can’t schedule enough inspections. “In China they are certainly outmanned,” says Brubaker, who’s been on inspection tours when officials have looked exhausted and exasperated. “If you know the government is not up to par, it’s on you,” he says.中国的食品系统高度分散——全国有数亿家小型农场,家畜养殖也非常分散。虽然中国相关方面的立法在不断完善,但政府部门仍无法安排足够的检测。布鲁贝克表示:“中国这方面的政府工作人员远远不足。”布鲁贝克曾参加过政府部门的巡回检查,工作人员看起来疲惫不堪,非常恼火。他说:“如果你知道政府达不到预期标准,便只能靠自己。”McDonald’s, KFC, Pizza Hut and other American brands sourcing from the OSI plant held themselves to higher standards in China. Now what? For one, the belief that American fast food is much safer has vanished. Apologies are only a necessary starting point. They won’t, by themselves, restore customers’ trust.麦当劳、肯德基、必胜客(Pizza Hut)和其他从福喜工厂采购食物的美国品牌,一直在中国宣称执行更高的标准。现在如何?首先,中国人对美国快餐食品更安全的信任已经消失。道歉只不过是一个起点。这些品牌靠自己不可能重新赢得消费者的信任。OSI President and chief operating officer David McDonald acknowledged as much on Monday by promising a thorough internal investigation and by parachuting a whole new team of managers for China.福喜集团总裁兼首席执行官戴维o麦克唐纳也承认这一点,他在周一承诺进行全面的内部调查,并且要空降一全新的管理团队接手中国分公司。The news follows a long trend of food scares in China. A tainted milk scandal in 2008 caused six infant deaths; KFC was found in 2012 to have used heavy doses of antibiotics on chickens it sold in the country; 15,000 dead pigs were found drifting in the a river in early 2013, part of an illegal pork trade.在此之前,中国已经发生了一系列食品恐慌。2008年的毒奶粉事件造成六名婴儿死亡;2012年,肯德基被曝出在全国出售的鸡肉抗生素超标;2013年初,黄浦江上出现15,000头漂浮死猪,据称与非法猪肉交易有关。But China’s systemic food safety failures aren’t without precedent: if you go back a century, Britain and the U.S. overcame the same abysmal food records.不过,类似中国这样系统性的食品安全问题并非没有先例:早在一个世纪以前,英国和美国也曾遭遇过同样糟糕的食品安全问题。Britain’s rapid urbanization in the 1800s meant getting food into cities took precedent over questions of whether the stuff was fit for consumption. Britain also went through its own milk scandal linked to infant deaths in the early 1900s. At the same time, U.S. writer Upton Sinclair shed light on the grim practices in Chicago’s meatpacking district supporting the country’s skyrocketing meat consumption and meat exports—reports that led to Europe occasionally banning U.S. meat and enacting burdensome inspection standards.十九世纪,英国的快速城市化,意味着食物能否进入城市,比是否适合消费更加重要。此外,二十世纪初,英国也经历过造成婴儿死亡的牛奶丑闻。与此同时,美国作家厄普顿o辛克莱揭露了芝加哥肉类加工业令人毛骨悚然的做法。当时,芝加哥的肉类加工业撑着美国急速上涨的肉类消耗和出口。辛克莱的报告导致欧洲不定期禁止进口美国肉类,并且制定了繁琐的检验标准。The latest scandal in China in many ways closely follows previous scandals there, maybe most closely with the “pork powder” incident in 2011. Then, Chinese journalists exposed the routine addition of previously banned additives clenbuterol and ractopamine by China’s largest pork producer. It was a case of local managers acting in their own self-interest instead of the interests of their customers. Managers from the local subsidiary, inspectors, farmers and traders were all in on the scandal even through the company’s bosses had banned the additives.中国最近曝出的食品丑闻,在很多方面与之前的丑闻密切相关,其中,联系最密切的可能要属2011年的“瘦肉精”事件。当时媒体曝光了中国最大的猪肉生产商大量原料添加了之前被禁用的添加剂克伦特罗和雷托巴胺。在此事件中,地方管理者只考虑自身利益,而罔顾消费者的利益。虽然公司高层禁止使用上述添加剂,但地方分公司的管理人员、检验人员、农民和中间商依旧我行我素,最终酿成了丑闻。At its core, food safety is about verification. Food companies must verify their suppliers aren’t cutting corners; restaurants must verify the food companies are upstanding; and government regulators must verify that every step is followed.食品安全的核心在于监督。食品公司必须检查供应商是否有投机取巧的行为;餐厅必须监督食品公司是否正直守法;政府监管部门必须监督企业是否遵守了每一个步骤。In China today, each stage of verification is lacking. Large food processors find it difficult to verify that hogs and chickens from small farms across China are raised according to standards; restaurants like McDonald’s, KFC, Starbucks, and others aren’t doing enough to inspect those processors; and China’s food officials are so lacking in numbers that the government can’t itself verify the steps.在当今中国,每一个监督环节都存在缺失。大型食品加工商发现很难确认全国各地小农场供应的猪和鸡是否按照标准饲养;麦当劳、肯德基、星巴克(Starbucks)和其他餐厅则没有对食品加工商进行充分的监督;而中国食品监督官员人手不足,仅靠政府力量很难对所有步骤进行监督。“If food safety were simply an engineering problem, the scientific discoveries and techniques developed over the past two centuries would shield consumers of China’s food from the hazards experienced by earlier generations,” wrote H. Frederick Gale and Dinghuan Hu of the U.S. Department of Agriculture and Wageningen University Office in China, in an academic paper.来自美国农业部(U.S. Department of Agriculture)和荷兰瓦赫宁根大学中国代表处(Wageningen University Office in China)的Ho弗雷德里克o盖尔与胡定寰在一份学术论文中写道:“如果食品安全只是一个简单的工程问题,那么,过去两个世纪的科学发现和技术,足以保护中国食品消费者避免前人经历过的危险。”But food safety is about more than advanced science, say the researchers. “While China has access to advanced laboratory and sanitation equipment, organizational improvements that played an often-overlooked role in achieving food safety have been difficult to implement in China.”但两位研究者认为,食品安全不仅与先进科技有关。“虽然中国拥有先进的实验室和卫生设备,但中国很难对组织结构进行完善。在实现食品安全的过程中,完善组织结构所带来的作用,往往会被忽视。”You could chalk it all up to China’s learning curve and conclude these are painful incidents the country has to experience after only opening its economy to the world 35 years ago. Except that what goes on in China affects the world: China is the world’s largest exporter of seafood; more than 70% of apple juice imported by the U.S. comes from China; the country ranks in the world top 10 of vegetable and fruit exports. In other words, what happens in the Chinese food industry is a direct concern for consumers around the world.你可以将问题归咎于中国的学习曲线,认为这是在35年前经济对外开放之后,中国必须要经历的痛。但中国出现的问题也在影响着整个世界:中国是世界最大的海产品出口国;美国进口的苹果汁,超过70%来自中国;中国是世界十大蔬菜水果出口国之一。换言之,中国食品行业发生的问题,将直接引起全球消费者的担忧。Meanwhile, the U.S. restaurants in China face uncertain prospects.同时,美国餐厅在中国面临着不确定的前景。At a KFC in the southern city of Guangzhou this week, workers said the biggest problems had passed. They may have been right. A team leader on duty said business trailed off for a few days following the Shanghai TV report before returning to nearly normal. “Don’t worry about it,” she said. “The staff is eating the food.”本周,广州市一家肯德基的工作人员表示,最大的问题已经解决。或许他说的不错。一位值班经理表示,上海电视台曝光之后的几天,业务量大幅减少,但现在已经恢复到接近正常水平。她说:“别担心。我们的工作人员也在吃这些食品。”But she couldn’t know whether the same masses of customers would again too.但大众消费者是否会重拾信心,她可能无从得知。 /201408/317149哈尔滨医院做b超要多少钱

哈尔滨宫颈糜烂手术费用多少Malaysia#39;s reputation has taken a big hit in China since a Malaysia Airlines flight disappeared earlier this month with over 150 Chinese passengers on board. A string of missteps by the airline and the Malaysian government in the aftermath of the tragedy has only made matters worse.载有150多名中国人的马来西亚航空公司(Malaysia Airlines, 简称:马航) 370客机的失踪,使马来西亚在中国的声誉急转直下,而马航、马政府在事件过程中屡屡处置不当更是给事情雪上加霜。Now the hard feelings are starting to spill over to other areas, including that favorite sector for Chinese investors: property.如今这份不满情绪已开始波及其他领域,包括中国投资者最热衷的行业――房地产。Malaysia was once seen as a promising market for Chinese real estate developers. Following the disappearance of Malaysian Airlines Flight 370, that has changed -- at least temporarily.马来西亚曾被视为中国房地产开发商的淘金地。然而客机失踪事件已(至少暂时)使这一看法发生改变。#39;For now, marketing homes in Malaysia is going to be a bit awkward. It#39;s just like how we don#39;t market homes in Japan to Chinese customers,#39; said one Beijing-based real estate consultant, who declined to be named. She was referring to another political sore spot -- China#39;s spat with Japan over islands in the East China Sea -- which has dented interest in the Japanese market among Chinese investors.北京一位不愿透露姓名的地产咨询师说,当前要销售马来西亚的房产会有些尴尬,就好比他们不会向中国客户销售日本房产一样。中国与日本在东中国海(East China Sea, 中国称东海)的岛屿主权争端冲淡了中国投资者对日本市场的热情。#39;My family and I were considering a trip to Malaysia for a holiday, but now, I think we will look elsewhere, maybe Thailand,#39; Tang Xue, a banker who works in Shanghai, recently told China Real Time. Ms. Tang, who owns apartments in London, said buying a home in Malaysia was not something she would consider now.在上海从事业工作的唐雪(音)说,她和家人本打算去马来西亚度假,但现在要考虑去泰国等其他地方了。在伦敦拥有房产的唐雪表示她现在不打算在马来西亚买房。#39;The Malaysian authorities were dishonest from day one, why should I contribute to the Malaysian economy?#39; she asked.她反问道,马政府自事件第一天起就不说实话,她又为何要给马来西亚经济做贡献?The shift in mood has started to worry some big Chinese property developers who have aly made a substantial bet on selling homes in Malaysia to mainland Chinese investors.这种情绪的转变,使得一些此前大笔押注中国投资者在马购房的中国房企巨头感到担忧。Guangzhou-based Country Garden Holdings first invested in Johor Bahru in West Malaysia in late 2012 and said it had #39;received an overwhelming response#39; from buyers from Malaysia, Singapore and China initially .2012年末,碧桂园控股有限公司(Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd)在马来西亚西部的新山市投资建房。据公司称,该项目最初获得了马来西亚、新加坡和中国买家的热烈反响。#39;The (flight) incident has brought some negative impressions of Malaysia (and the) Malaysian government, and we do not preclude the possibility that this would also affect our projects in the Malaysian market,#39; said Country Garden in a statement. Sales in its Country Garden Danga Bay project in Johor Bahru last year reached roughly 7 billion yuan, which was the firm#39;s biggest sales contributor.碧桂园在一份声明中称,马航客机失踪事件冲击了马来西亚及该国政府的形象,公司不排除此事会影响其马来西亚项目的可能。去年碧桂园的新山金海湾项目销售额达约人民币70亿元,占公司销售收入的最大头。The company said, however, that it was still confident in its investment in the country.但碧桂园同时表示,仍对在马来西亚的投资抱有信心。#39;We believe that Chinese buyers in the choice of overseas investment are rational,#39; it said.该公司称:我们认为中国买家在选择进行海外投资时是较为理性的。Over time, analysts say, the investment climate could change, just as it did with Japanese cars following a flare up in territorial tensions between China and Japan in 2012.分析师认为,随着时间的推移,投资环境会发生变化,就好比2012年时,中日两国领土争端导致的紧张局势给日系汽车的销售造成不利影响,但后来有所改观。#39;In the long term, homebuyers will consider more fundamental issues, like education and investment prospects of buying a home in Malaysia,#39; Mr. Hu added.联昌国际券(CIMB Securities)分析师胡继中(Johnson Hu)表示,长期来看,购房者将考虑更多基本面因素,比如教育以及在马来西亚置业的投资前景等。But it#39;s difficult to tell how quickly Chinese appetite for Malaysian homes could recover. Much depends on how long the search for the missing plane drags on, according to analysts.但目前还很难说中国买家对马来西亚房产的兴趣何时会恢复。分析师认为,这在很大程度上取决于失踪客机的搜寻工作会持续多久。#39;The protests taking place in Kuala Lumpur show Malaysia still has some damage control to do,#39; said a Shanghai-based property consultant.一名驻上海的房地产顾问称,失踪客机中国乘客的家属在吉隆坡进行的抗议表明,马来西亚仍需做一些损害控制方面的工作。Strong sales registered earlier by Country Garden drew copycat projects by other developers. At least four Chinese developers announcied plans to invest a total of around .8 billion worth in projects in Malaysia in months prior to the disappearance of the flight on March 8. They have yet to launch their sales campaigns.碧桂园之前出色的销售业绩引来其他开发商的效仿。MH370航班在3月8日失踪前的几个月,至少有四家中资地产开发商宣布了在马来西亚开发项目的计划,价值总计48亿美元左右。这些公司还没有启动销售活动。Company executives say privately that any dip in appetite will be temporary and that demand will bounce back once more details about the flight emerge and Malaysia takes steps to repair its reputation.公司高管私下里都认为,投资人气降温只是暂时的,一旦更多有关失踪客机的详情被公布,而且马来西亚采取行动修复名誉后,需求就会回暖。#39;We feel sorry about the Malaysia Airlines tragedy. But the incident hasn#39;t had much impact on us so far,#39; said a spokesman from Guangzhou Ramp;F Properties, one of the developers.上述四家开发商之一的广州富力地产股份有限公司(Guangzhou Ramp;F Properties Co.简称:富力地产)发言人称:我们对马航悲剧感到遗憾,但这次事故目前还没有给公司造成太大影响。 /201404/283665 With Greece out of the spotlight, global investors have returned to worrying about a future rise in US interest rates and the volatility that could bring to markets. They appear to be supremely unconcerned by the stagnation in world trade this year. But that could turn out to be a costly mistake.随着希腊淡出人们的视野焦点,全球投资者重新开始忧虑美国何时加息及其可能给市场带来的波动。他们似乎对今年全球贸易陷入停滞无动于衷。但这可能酿成一个代价高昂的错误。The latest World Trade Monitor showed the volume of world trade falling in May, by 1.2 per cent. It has slid in four out of five months in 2015 and risen just 1.5 per cent in the past 12 months — less than the growth in global output and far below the long-term average of about 7 per cent a year.最新一期的《世界贸易监测》(World Trade Monitor)表明,今年5月全球贸易量下滑1.2%。2015年的头5个月中有4个月都出现下滑。过去12个月里全球贸易量仅增长1.5%——这不仅低于全球产出增长,也远低于7%的长期平均年增长水平。The problem has been getting worse for some time. Trade bounced back fairly well in 2010 after the global recession but it has disappointed ever since, growing by barely 3 per cent in 2012 and 2013. Now it seems the world cannot manage even that.这个问题不断恶化已经有一段时间了。全球经济衰退后,贸易在2010年出现相当不错的反弹,但此后就一直令人失望,在2012年和2013年都仅增长了3%,现在似乎连这样的增长水平都达不到了。The prevailing view is that we do not need to worry about this weakness because it is largely structural. According to this argument, exceptional forces that conspired to make growth more trade-intensive in the 1990s and 2000s are now coming to a natural end.普遍看法是,我们无需忧虑这种疲弱的状态,因为这主要是结构性问题。根据这种说法,在1990年代和2000年代促使经济增长“贸易密集度”较高的多种特殊力量正迎来自然终结。Those decades brought a historic decline in trade barriers and global transportation costs together with the dramatic entry of emerging market economies into the world trading system — notably China. All that, in turn, helped produce a much deeper division of international labour which sent different parts of a single production chain to far-flung parts of the world.在那二十年,贸易壁垒和全球运输成本出现历史性下降,同时新兴市场经济体戏剧性地进入全球贸易体系——特别是中国。这一切进而在国际间推动了更深层次的劳动分工,使单一生产链的不同环节散布于世界的不同角落。A recent study by the International Monetary Fund calculated that in the 1990s, every 1 per cent rise in global income generated a 2.5 per cent rise in global trade, much more than in the past. But not any more. Obviously, global growth could not become more trade-intensive forever. In fact, the volume of trade in services is still going up. But in manufacturing, rising costs and greater self-sufficiency in emerging markets and changing production techniques around the world have led many of those intricate global value chains to be unpicked. Since 2013 every 1 per cent of global growth has pro搀甀挀攀搀 a trade bump of just 0.7 per cent.国际货币基金组织(IMF)最近的一项研究计算出,在20世纪90年代,全球收入每增长1%,全球贸易就会增长2.5%,比以往多得多,但这样的情况不再出现了。显然,全球增长的贸易密集度不会永远增长下去。实际上,务贸易量依然在上升。但在制造业,新兴市场成本上升和自给自足程度提高,以及世界各地生产方式的变化,已导致不少复杂的全球价值链不复存在。自2013年以来,每1%的全球增长只能产生0.7%的贸易增长。China is the great case study. In the mid-1990s as much as 60 per cent of the value of the country’s goods exports came from imported parts and materials. That has now fallen to about 35 per cent. In the US, manufacturing imports have not risen at all as a share of gross domestic product since 2000. In the decade before that they nearly doubled.中国是一个很好的案例。上世纪90年代中期,中国出口的产品多达60%的价值来自于进口零部件和原材料。如今这一比例已经降至约35%。在美国,自2000年以来,制造业进口占国内生产总值(GDP)的比重一直没有上升。而在之前十年,这一比重几乎翻了一倍。For some, this is perfectly natural and nothing to be concerned about. But structural forces can explain why trade is growing more slowly — they cannot explain why it is barely growing at all.对一些人而言,这是再正常不过的了,根本无需担忧。但是,结构性力量可以解释贸易为什么增长得更慢,却解释不了贸易为什么几乎不增长。In fact, there are three more short-term explanations for the weak trade numbers, which should demand the attention of policymakers.实际上,对于贸易数据疲软,还有三个短期解释应该引起政策制定者的注意。The first is that global investment demand continues to fall short. For several years, emerging market economies bucked the trend but capital spending has now slowed in such countries as well. This translates into lower trade growth because capital goods are more trade-intensive. It matters because it does not just dampen growth today but could also limit growth in the future by further slowing growth in productivity.第一,全球投资需求持续不足。新兴市场经济体曾在数年时间里顶住这一趋势,但如今这些国家的资本出也放缓了。因为资本产品的贸易密集度较高,这就压低了贸易增长。这关系重大,因为这不仅抑制当前的增长,还会进一步减缓生产率的提高,从而抑制未来增长。Another warning from the trade data is that the recovery in domestic demand in the US and Europe this year is not being seen elsewhere. Latin America appears to have contracted between the end of March and the beginning of July, and JPMorgan estimates that Asian emerging market economies — excluding China — grew by just 1.4 per cent. China is doing better but not nearly as well as it was. This weakness is worrying at a time when many governments in such countries have less room to ease policy than they did before and are aly dealing with weak commodity prices and a stronger dollar.贸易数据发出的另一个警报是:今年以来美国和欧洲出现的国内需求复苏,并没有在其他地区出现。拉美在3月底至7月初似乎出现了萎缩,同时据根大通(JPMorgan)估计,除中国以外,亚洲新兴市场经济体仅增长1.4%。中国表现更好,但远不及过去的水平。这种疲弱令人担忧,因为这类国家中许多政府放宽政策的空间比过去更小,同时它们还正在应对疲弱的大宗商品价格和美元走强。Last weekend, Beijing announced new measures to revive demand through stronger exports — including a slightly more flexible currency. I doubt the Chinese authorities are about to engineer a big depreciation in the renminbi when they are also trying to develop its role as a reserve currency, and Chinese companies have borrowed so much in dollars. But the pressures are clearly there.最近北京宣布多项新举措,通过加强出口来重振需求——其中包括采用略微提高人民币汇率弹性。考虑到中国政府正努力推动人民币成为一种储备货币,且中国企业借入了许多美元,我认为中国当局应该不会策划让人民币大幅贬值。但压力显然是摆在那里的。That highlights the final lesson: in today’s global economy, governments should not be trying to reflate their economies on the back of a weak currency alone. Since coming to power in 2012, Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister, has done much to help his country’s economy, but one thing Abenomics has not accomplished is to increase exports. Many European policy洀愀欀攀爀猀 think the weak euro has been the making of the eurozone recovery. But it has not yet. Net trade made a negative contribution to eurozone growth in the first three months of 2015 and trade’s contribution is likely to be barely positive for the rest of 2015.这就凸显了最后一个教训:在当今的全球经济中,政府不应仅靠货币贬值来推动本国经济再膨胀。自2012年执政以来,日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)为促进日本经济做了很多工作,但安倍经济学没有做到的一点就是增加出口。很多欧洲政策制定者认为,欧元走软推动了欧元区复苏。但实际情况并不是这样。2015年头3个月,净贸易对欧元区增长的贡献为负,而在2015年余下时间里,贸易对增长的贡献也很可能只能勉强达到正数。For all the talk about the euro, the single most encouraging aspect of Europe’s recovery since the turn of the year has been the strength of domestic demand. But private capital investment in the eurozone is still flat and has been even weaker than in the US since 2010.尽管各方对欧元念念不忘,但今年以来欧洲复苏最鼓舞人心的一个方面是国内需求强劲。但是欧元区私人部门资本投资依然表现平平,而且自2010年以来一直比美国更加疲软。If consumption and investment firm up on both sides of the Atlantic, we should start to see global trade pick up as well. But policymakers should not kid themselves that trade is going to rescue them from their domestic economic travails as in the past.如果大西洋两岸的消费与投资都上升,我们应该能开始看到全球贸易的回暖。但政策制定者不应自欺欺人地认为,贸易能像过去那样让他们从国内经济的阵痛中解脱出来。 /201508/389958方正县做无痛人流哈尔滨市第一医院做人流怎么样

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