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2019年07月23日 17:16:40来源:赶集分享

  • China#39;s problem with bloated production is ricocheting around the world.中国产能过剩的影响正在波及全球。China is producing too much steel, plate glass, chemicals, solar panels and other goods for the domestic market, and usually exports the excess at cut-rate prices. That creates big problems for China#39;s competitors, who have to cut their prices to compete, slashing profits for everyone. Back in China, producers find cheap loans to keep producing and exporting. That risks inflating China#39;s credit bubble further -- making China#39;s economy ever-more vulnerable to downturns -- and adds even more manufacturing capacity.中国目前的钢铁、平板玻璃、化学、太阳能电池板以及其他产品的产能已超出国内市场需求,而过剩的产品通常会以更低的价格向海外出口。这给海外的竞争者们带来了巨大的麻烦,他们也不得不通过降价来提高竞争力,这导致所有厂商的利润下降。而在中国,这些生产商可以获得廉价的贷款来继续生产和出口。这种模式带来的一个风险是中国的信贷泡沫进一步扩大,从而使得中国经济更加容易受到增长势头下滑的影响,并且会导致产能进一步扩大。There are winners here, of course: consumers, like car and appliance buyers, who may benefit from the lower costs of steel, glass and chemicals used to build consumer goods. But for producers and policymakers, it means tough decisions about how to keep the pain from sping and putting more companies -- and free trade -- at risk.当然也有赢家,那就是消费者,例如汽车和家用电器的消费者。用于生产消费品的钢铁、玻璃和化工产品成本的降低可能令他们受益。但对于制造商和决策者而言,这意味着艰难的抉择,如何来防止由此造成的负面影响进一步扩散、如何避免更多公司、甚至是自由贸易受到威胁都成为他们必须考虑的问题。#39;China is creating a glut of supply and hurting the profitability of the global industry,#39; says Anthony DeCarvalho, a senior economist at the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, referring to the global steel industry. #39;It also may be displacing more efficient producers#39; outside China who can#39;t compete with subsidized Chinese production, he adds, and go bust.经济合作与发展组织(Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, 简称OECD)高级经济学家Anthony DeCarvalho称,中国正在制造大量过剩产品,并损害全球行业的盈利能力,他指的是全球钢铁行业。他表示,中国产品供应过剩可能正造成中国以外的更多高效生产商被淘汰,这些企业无法与获得政府补贴的中国产品竞争,这导致这些企业走向破产。Faced with such a challenge, many nations resort to trade sanctions, tacking huge charges on Chinese imports.面对这样的挑战,许多国家选择了贸易制裁,向中国进口商品征收高额关税。China#39;s vast excess capacity makes it the biggest target of such sanctions. Global Trade Alert, a trade research group headquartered in London, looked for The Wall Street Journal at six sectors marked by excess capacity in China: steel, aluminum, cement, plate glass, wind turbines and solar energy components. Of all the trade sanctions cases brought since Jan. 2009 in these industries, China was the sanctions-target 75% of the time.中国严重的过剩产能使自己成为这种贸易制裁的第一大目标。据总部位于伦敦的贸易研究机构全球贸易预警组织(Global Trade Alert)向《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)表示,在钢铁、铝、水泥、平板玻璃、风力发电机和太阳能组件这六个中国存在过剩产能的行业,自2009年1月份以来的所有贸易制裁案例中,有75%的制裁目标是中国。Overall, China was the target of global sanctions about 46% of the time during the same period, Global Trade Alert found. The U.S. was dinged 34% of the time and the European Union 43%. (The numbers add up to more than 100% because trade sanctions often target multiple countries.)OECD发现,总体来看,中国在同期有大约46%的时间被列为国际制裁目标。美国的比例为34%,欧盟为43%(数字之和大于100%,因制裁措施通常针对多个国家)。Trade restrictions deepen tensions among trading partners and can, in some cases, lead to trade wars. In the U.S. and other democracies, such restrictions help turn China into the sinister face of globalization, at least in the court of public opinion.贸易限制措施加深了贸易伙伴之间的紧张关系,在某些情况下还会引发贸易战。在美国和其他民主国家,这种限制措施使得中国变为经济全球化的负面典型,至少在公众的观念中是如此。#39;China continually seeks to evade the trade laws and identify new opportunities to ship dumped and subsidized products into the U.S.,#39; charges Michael Wessel, a member of Congress#39;s U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, and a consultant to the U.S. steel industry.美中经济安全审查委员会委员(U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission)、美国钢铁业顾问韦赛尔(MIchael Wessel)指责称,中国不断试图规避贸易法,不断寻找新的机会将倾销及补贴产品运入美国。In a statement to The Wall Street Journal, China#39;s Ministry of Information and Industry Technology said China#39;s steel exports, including those to the U.S., abide by the World Trade Organization rules. China#39;s steel overwhelmingly feeds the domestic market, the ministry said, with only 8% of China#39;s crude steel shipped overseas. #39;There is no dumping taking place,#39; the ministry said. (#39;Dumping#39; is selling at below-market prices.)中国工业和信息化部在发给《华尔街日报》的一份声明中称,中国的钢铁出口(包括出口至美国的钢铁)遵守世界贸易组织(WTO)的规则。该部表示,中国钢铁绝大部分供给国内市场,只有8%的粗钢出口海外,不存在倾销行为。(“倾销”即以低于市场价格出售商品。)Steel is especially politicized, in part because there are few large multinational steel producers to temper nationalist sentiments in individual countries. According to Global Trade Alert, between 1995 and 2013, 28.5% of all anti-dumping trade cases brought globally involved steel, by far the largest sector hit by such suits. China was the target of 35% of the cases, making it number one by a wide margin.钢铁是一种尤其具有政治意义的商品,在一定程度上是因为大型跨国钢铁生产商屈指可数,难以缓和各国内部的民族主义情绪。根据OECD,1995至2013年间全球范围内的所有反倾销贸易案中,有28.5%的案件与钢铁有关,这是到目前为止诉讼最多的行业。这其中,中国被定为诉讼目标的案件占35%,位居榜首,数量远超第二位。#39;Steel is at the center of trade controversy,#39; says Scott Kennedy, a China specialist at Indiana University.印第安那大学(Indiana University)大学中国问题专家肯尼迪(Scott Kennedy)称,钢铁处在贸易争议的中心。According to OECD data, the global steel industry can produce 555 million more tons of steel than consumers need. Of that, China accounts for about 37% of the excess capacity.根据OECD的数据,全球钢铁行业的产能比消费需求高出5.55亿吨。其中大约37%的过剩产能来自中国。With so many of the world#39;s factories running at low, inefficient rates of production, prices and profits have dropped. In China, the average price of steel fell by one-fourth between 2011 and Feb. 2014, according Chinese government statistics, about the same percentage decline as import prices for steel in the U.S.由于全球有太多低效运转的工厂,钢铁价格和利润出现下降。中国政府统计数据显示,2011年至2014年2月,中国钢铁平均价格下降四分之一,与美国进口钢铁价格降幅基本一致。If anything, the global glut may get deeper. That#39;s because other nations, including India, Vietnam, Iran and Saudi Arabia have followed China#39;s example of trying to build big national steel industries.全球产能过剩问题可能愈演愈烈,因为包括印度、越南、伊朗和沙特在内的其他国家也在效仿中国,试图建立大规模的国有钢铁产业。Even so, China#39;s production increases still dwarf any other nation. Between 2012 and 2015, China should account for about 40% of the world#39;s increased steel-making capacity, the OECD estimates, despite Beijing#39;s efforts to scale back excess production.尽管如此,中国的钢铁产量增幅仍明显高于其他国家。OECD估计,2012至2015年,中国将占到全球新增钢铁产能的40%左右,尽管中国政府正在努力收缩过剩产能。The OECD is trying to get a handle on the overcapacity issue, especially in defining more precisely what counts as excess. But the OECD can#39;t force nations to make adjustments to their industrial production.OECD试图找到产能过剩问题的症结,尤其是更准确地定义过剩产能。但OECD不能强迫各国调整其工业生产。That likely means more frustration ahead.这可能意味着未来将有更多麻烦。#39;A lot of policy makers and steel producers say China doesn#39;t have any competitive advantage in the raw materials#39; used to make steel, says Mr. DeCarvalho, the OECD economist. #39;Their companies aren#39;t making money. So why do we see more investment in plans in China?#39;OECD经济学家DeCarvalho表示,很多决策者和钢铁生产商认为中国在钢铁生产的原材料方面不具备任何竞争优势;既然中国企业没有盈利,为何中国要增加投资呢? /201407/312747。
  • Belgium#39;s new Waterloo coin比利时新滑铁卢硬币Belgium was forced to abandon the idea of issuing a two-euro commemorative coin marking the bicentennial of the Battle of Waterloo after France objected to the move in March.今年3月,因法国反对,比利时不得不放弃了铸造2欧元硬币纪念滑铁卢之战200周年的计划,不过比利时还是找到了发行滑铁卢纪念硬币的办法。But Belgium has come up with a way to get its Waterloo euro coins after all.本周,比利时决定援引一条鲜为人知的欧盟规定,从而绕开法国的阻挠。This week, Belgium decided to circumvent French resistance by invoking a little-known European Union rule that allows countries to issue euro coins of their choice, provided they are in an irregular denomination.根据这条规定,欧盟成员国可自行选择发行欧元硬币,只要面值不常见即可。That led to the unveiling of a EUR2.50 coin - a first in Belgium - and 70,000 of them have now been minted.于是,比利时推出了面值为2.5欧元的硬币——这在比利时历史上是头一遭——并已铸造了7万枚。The coins can only be spent inside Belgium.这些硬币只能在比利时境内使用。 /201506/380225。
  • Belgium#39;s new Waterloo coin比利时新滑铁卢硬币Belgium was forced to abandon the idea of issuing a two-euro commemorative coin marking the bicentennial of the Battle of Waterloo after France objected to the move in March.今年3月,因法国反对,比利时不得不放弃了铸造2欧元硬币纪念滑铁卢之战200周年的计划,不过比利时还是找到了发行滑铁卢纪念硬币的办法。But Belgium has come up with a way to get its Waterloo euro coins after all.本周,比利时决定援引一条鲜为人知的欧盟规定,从而绕开法国的阻挠。This week, Belgium decided to circumvent French resistance by invoking a little-known European Union rule that allows countries to issue euro coins of their choice, provided they are in an irregular denomination.根据这条规定,欧盟成员国可自行选择发行欧元硬币,只要面值不常见即可。That led to the unveiling of a EUR2.50 coin - a first in Belgium - and 70,000 of them have now been minted.于是,比利时推出了面值为2.5欧元的硬币——这在比利时历史上是头一遭——并已铸造了7万枚。The coins can only be spent inside Belgium.这些硬币只能在比利时境内使用。 /201506/380225。
  • More than 25 million years ago, India, once a separate island on a quickly sliding piece of the Earth’s crust, crashed into Asia. The two land masses are still colliding, pushed together at a speed of 1.5 to 2 inches a year. The forces have pushed up the highest mountains in the world, in the Himalayas, and have set off devastating earthquakes.2500多万年前,印度还是一个快速滑动的板块上的独立岛屿,它与亚洲大陆发生了碰撞。这两个板块仍在继续相撞,每年以1.5到2英寸(约合3.81厘米)的速度相互挤压。这些力量令喜马拉雅山脉形成世界最高的山峰,并引发灾难性的地震。Experts had warned of the danger to the people of Katmandu for decades. The death toll in Nepal on Saturday was practically inevitable given the tectonics, the local geology that made the shaking worse and the lax construction of buildings that could not withstand the shaking.数十年来,专家一直警告加德满都人民要注意这种危险。鉴于地质构造、令地震震动加剧的地质情况,以及建筑物的构造不严谨、抗震能力差,尼泊尔在周六出现的惨重伤亡实际上是不可避免的。GeoHazards International, a nonprofit organization in Menlo Park, Calif., that tries to help poorer, more vulnerable regions like Nepal prepare for disasters, had noted that major earthquakes struck that region about every 75 years.设在加州门洛帕克的非营利组织国际地质灾难协会(GeoHazards International)是一家试图帮尼泊尔等较为贫穷、脆弱的地区为应对灾难做准备的机构。该机构指出,每隔75年,这里就会发生一次大地震。In 1934 — 81 years ago — more than 10,000 people died in a magnitude 8.1 earthquake in eastern Nepal, about six miles south of Mount Everest. A smaller quake in 1988 with a magnitude of 6.8 killed more than 1,000 people.81年前的1934年,在尼泊尔东部距离珠峰大约6英里(约合10公里)的地方发生8.1级地震,共有1万余人丧生。1988年,共有逾1000人在一次规模较小的6.8级地震中丧生。Brian Tucker, president and founder of GeoHazards, said that in the 1990s, his organization predicted that if the 1934 quake were to happen again, 40,000 people would die because of migration to the city where tall, flimsily built buildings would collapse.国际地质灾难协会的总裁兼创始人布莱恩·塔克(Brian Tucker)说,上世纪90年代,他所在的组织曾预测,倘若1934年的地震再次发生,就会造成4万人死亡——这是因为人口在向这座城市迁移,高大而脆弱的建筑物将会坍塌。In an update just this month, GeoHazards wrote, “With an annual population growth rate of 6.5 percent and one of the highest urban densities in the world, the 1.5 million people living in the Katmandu Valley were clearly facing a serious and growing earthquake risk.”国际地质灾难协会在本月的更新信息中写道,“这里的年均人口增长率为6.5%,而且城市密度位于世界最高之列;在这种情况下,住在加德满都谷的150万人明显面临着严重而且越来越大的地震风险。”The organization helped set up a local nonprofit to continue preparations, including the reinforcement of schools and hospitals.该组织协助成立了一个本地非营利组织,以继续进行准备工作,其中包括学校和医院的加固。Saturday’s earthquake occurred to the northwest of Katmandu at a relatively shallow depth, about nine miles, which caused greater shaking at the surface, but at magnitude 7.8, it released less energy than the 1934 quake.周六的地震发生在加德满都西北地区,震源相对较浅,约为9英里,所以地表的震动更加强烈。但是由于震级为7.8级,所以释放的能量比1934年的少。Roger Bilham, a professor of geological sciences at the University of Colorado who has studied the history of earthquakes in that region, said that the shaking lasted one to two minutes, and the fault slipped about 10 feet along the rupture zone, which stretched 75 miles, passing under Katmandu.科罗拉多大学(University of Colorado)地质学教授罗杰·比尔汉姆(Roger Bilham)曾研究过该地区的地震历史,他说,震动持续了一到两分钟,断层沿着断裂带滑动了约10英尺,断裂带长达75英里,从加德满都穿过。The earthquake “translated the whole city southward by 10 feet,” Dr. Bilham said.这场地震“让整个城市向南移动了10英尺”,比尔汉姆士说。Aftershocks as large as magnitude 6.6 have occurred mostly to the northeast of Katmandu.最高达6.6级的余震多数发生在加德满都的东北部。It is possible that the Saturday quake is a preface to an even larger one, but Dr. Bilham said that was unlikely.周六的地震有可能只是更大地震的前奏,但比尔汉姆说可能性并不大。Katmandu and the surrounding valley sit on an ancient dried-up lake bed, which contributed to the devastation. “Very, very soft soil, and the soft soil amplifies seismic motion,” Dr. Tucker said.加德满都和周围的山谷坐落在一个古老而干涸的湖床上,这也是该地区在地震中受到严重损毁的原因之一。“非常非常软的土壤,松软的土壤放大了震动,”塔克士说。Steep slopes in the area are also prone to avalanches like the one that the quake triggered on Mount Everest on Saturday.该地区的陡峭山坡也很容易发生雪崩,就像周六的地震在珠穆朗玛峰上引发的雪崩一样。Katmandu is not the only place where a deadly earthquake has been expected.并非只有加德满都预计会发生致人死亡的地震。Dr. Tucker said Tehran; Haiti; Lima, Peru; and Padang, Indonesia, were similarly vulnerable. In those places, nearby tectonic faults are under strain, and building standards and disaster preparations are seen as inadequate.塔克说,德黑兰、海地、秘鲁利马,以及印度尼西亚巴东同样容易发生地震。这些地方附近的构造断层都处在紧张状态,但建筑标准和灾难预防则似乎不够充分。But not everywhere has been complacent. Over the past 76 years, many earthquakes have occurred along a fault in northern Turkey, starting in the eastern part of the country and progressing west, toward Istanbul. An earthquake in 1999 killed more than 17,000 people, mostly in the city of Izmit, east of Istanbul. The expectation is that the epicenter of the next big earthquake will be in or around Istanbul.不过,并非所有地方都这样麻痹大意。过去76年,土耳其北部的一个断层附近发生了许多地震,该断层从该国的东部开始,朝着伊斯坦布尔的方向,向西部延伸。1999年的一场地震曾导致超过1.7万人遇难,多数遇难者位于伊斯坦布尔东部的伊兹米特市。人们的预期是,下一次大地震的震中将在伊斯坦布尔或其周围。“Istanbul is the place that has been most aggressive in enforcing building codes,” Dr. Tucker said. “I think Istanbul has been doing a good job.”“伊斯坦布尔是执行建筑规范最积极的地方,”塔克说。“我认为伊斯坦布尔做得很不错。” /201504/372169。
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