原标题: 黑龙江省阳光妇儿医院做人流要多久放心活动
The US economy appears to have entered a period of “self-sustaining” growth but governments in other major economies must do more to stimulate demand, US Treasury secretary Jack Lew warned yesterday.美国财政部长杰克#8226;卢(Jack Lew)昨日警告称,美国经济似乎已进入“可自我持续”增长期,但其他主要经济体的政府必须采取更多行动刺激需求。Mr Lew said, in evidence to Congress, that 2.5 per cent growth last year and robust forecasts for this year indicated that the US was set to expand “substantially faster than all of the other advanced economies combined” in 2015. But he added: “While the recovery in the US economy has helped to drive global growth, the rest of the world cannot depend on the ed States to be the sole engine of growth.” Mr Lew cited a pledge last year from the G20 group of leading economies for more to be done to stimulate domestic demand around the world but hinted at US frustration that other major economies were not living up to that promise.卢在接受美国国会质询时表示,去年2.5%的增长率、以及今年预计的强劲增长,显示美国2015年增长“速度将显著高于其他所有发达经济体”。但他补充称,“尽管美国经济复苏帮助推动了全球增长,但世界不能依赖美国做唯一的增长引擎。”卢提到去年20国集团(G20)的呼吁,即世界各国领先经济体应采取更多行动刺激内需,然后暗示,美国对其他主要经济体未能兑现这一承诺感到失望。“Our strength allows us to maintain our leadership in the global community and while we must lead by example, we cannot do it alone,” he told the hearing.他在国会听会上表示:“我们的实力允许我们维持在国际社会的领导地位,然而,尽管我们必须以实际行动来领导,但我们孤掌难鸣。”The US was the only major economy apart from Spain to have its growth outlook upgraded last month by the International Monetary Fund .在国际货币基金组织(IMF)上月上调增长预测的国家中,美国是除西班牙以外唯一的主要经济体。While the US economy decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2014, expanding at an annualised 2.6 per cent pace, compared with 5 per cent a year ago, its growth rate was still faster than the average set in the first 21 quarters of the recovery. This contrasts sharply with other major economies, including notably the eurozone, which has been heading into deflation.尽管美国经济2014年4季度增长有所减速,年化增长率为2.6%,低于上年同期的5%,但该季度增长率仍高于此轮复苏21个季度以来的平均水平。这与其他主要经济体形成鲜明对比,尤其是欧元区,后者在滑向通缩。The IMF expects the US to grow at three times the rate of the euro area this year.IMF预计今年美国的增长率将为欧元区的3倍。Mr Lew gave voice to broader fears among US officials that the rebound in the US could be curtailed by sluggish demand overseas. That worry was flagged up by the US Federal Reserve last week when it added “international developments” to a list of swing factors informing its interest rate policy.卢表达了美国官员的普遍担忧,即海外需求疲软可能削弱美国经济反弹。上周,美联储(Fed)指出了这一担忧,将“国际动态”加入了影响其利率政策的因素清单。 /201502/358430

LUCAS DO RIO VERDE, Brazil — The ambitions are dizzying, some of the grandest in Latin America since thousands of laborers perished building railways through the forbidding jungles of Brazil more than a century ago.巴西贝尔德河畔卢卡斯——它们堪称逾一个世纪前成千上万的铁路建设劳工丧生于险恶的巴西丛林以来拉丁美洲最宏大的一些项目,其中的万丈雄心令人目眩。China has sought to build a “dry canal” in the form of a railway across Colombia, linking the Caribbean to the Pacific. Chinese investors announced another huge venture in Honduras, two ports and a 375-mile railroad from sea to sea. Then this June, China announced yet another megarailway — nearly 10 times as long — across Brazil and Peru, stretching from one coast of South America to the other.中国希望打造一条“陆上通道”,通过穿越哥伦比亚的铁路线来把加勒比海和太平洋连接起来。中国投资者还宣布将在洪都拉斯进行大型工程,用两座港口和一条375英里长(约合600公里)的铁路线将这两片海域打通。到了今年6月,中国宣布了又一个超级铁路项目,是前述长度的近10倍。它将穿越巴西和秘鲁,贯通南美的东西海岸。But across the region, one large Chinese rail venture after another has come crashing against the hard realities of Latin American politics, resistance from environmental groups, and a growing wariness toward China. While China boasts of its rail initiatives around the world, it has often been stymied here in Latin America, reflecting how even China’s formidable ambitions have limits.然而,在这片大陆的各个地方,中国一个接一个的大型铁路项目开始遭遇拉丁美洲冰冷的政治现实、环境团体的抵制,以及对中国越来越深的警惕。尽管中国总是夸耀它在世界各地的铁路项目,但在拉丁美洲却频繁受阻,由此折射出,即便是中国的勃勃雄心也会面临限制。Now, new worries over China’s economic growth are raising more doubts about the blitz of what China calls its “railroad diplomacy,” as parts of Latin America reel from their dependence on China.眼下,在拉丁美洲的不少地区头疼于自身对中国的依赖之际,对中国经济增长状况的新担忧令其口中的“铁路外交”攻势遭受了更多的质疑。The enormous twin-ocean railroad across Brazil and Peru, in particular, “will be a crucial test of China’s mettle as a global power and the potential for greater acquiescence in South America to the designs that China has on our resources,” said José Eustáquio Diniz Alves, a Brazilian scholar.尤其是规模庞大的穿越巴西和秘鲁的两大洋铁路计划,“将成为一次关键的考验,衡量的是中国作为一个全球大国的本事,以及中国对南美资源的筹谋会得到我们更大接受度的可能性,”巴西学者若泽·欧斯塔基奥·迪尼兹·阿尔维斯(José Eustáquio Diniz Alves)表示。“We’re experiencing the downside of our overreliance on China now that the opaque Chinese economy is in flux,” he added. “Imagine what will happen if this railway somehow advances, bringing with it environmental devastation and even more leverage for China in our affairs.”“鉴于扑朔迷离的中国经济目前处于不稳定状态,我们正在经历对它过度依赖的负面影响,”他还说。“假如这条铁路得以推进,会对环境带来毁灭,给中国送上插手我们事务的更大筹码。想象一下,那会是怎样一番情形?”More than 100 years ago, Americans were among the foreigners who rolled into the heart of South America with ambitious plans to build railways. The ruins of their grand designs for the Brazilian Amazon, called the Devil’s Railway because of the thousands of workers who died building it, are a testament to the dangers of relying too heavily on commodity exports.一百多年前,美国等外部势力怀着修建铁路的雄心开进了南美腹地。他们对巴西亚马孙丛林的这一宏伟蓝图被称为“魔鬼铁路”(Devil’s Railway),得名于因此消逝的成千上万条生命。它的遗迹说明了过于依赖大宗商品出口的危险性。Officials slowly abandoned the railroad, parts of which are now swallowed by jungle, after rubber prices collapsed generations ago. These days, China is the one suffering an array of setbacks in railroad projects across the region, at a time when the demand for Latin America’s commodities — like soybeans, iron ore, copper and oil — has slowed.数十年前橡胶价格崩盘之后,官方逐渐遗弃了这条铁路,部分路段如今隐没在了丛林里。到了现在,当拉丁美洲大宗商品——大豆、铁矿石、铜和石油等——面临需求放缓之时,在穿越该地区的铁路项目上遭遇重挫的变成了中国。Last November, Mexico abruptly canceled a Chinese-led bid to build a .3 billion high-speed rail system after accusations that the Mexican government had favored contractors who were part of the consortium.去年11月,墨西哥突然取消了中国中标的高铁建设项目,此前,有人指控该国政府偏袒了中标方当中的承包商。该项目涉及43亿美元的投资。In Honduras, two years have passed since Chinese investors announced the railway linking the Caribbean Sea to the Pacific. Yet Miguel Servellón, an official with the state agency promoting the project, said it was “still a long way from happening,” listing obstacles like a complex environmental approval process.在洪都拉斯,中国投资者两年前就宣布要修建一条连接加勒比海和太平洋的铁路。但在负责促进该项目的官方机构任职的官员米格尔·塞韦利翁(Miguel Servellón)称,“离动工还有很长的路要走”,并列举了面临的障碍,如复杂的环境审批程序。In another project aimed at finding an alternative to the Panama Canal, the Colombian president, Juan Manuel Santos, said four years ago that Colombia and China had a plan that was “quite advanced” to build a railway linking the Pacific to the Caribbean. But the mood has changed considerably since then.四年前,哥伦比亚总统胡安·曼努埃尔·桑托斯(Juan Manuel Santos)称,哥伦比亚和中国制定了一个“相当成熟”的计划,打算修建一条连接太平洋和加勒比海的铁路。该项目意在找到一条替代巴拿马运河的通道。但时至今日,人们的情绪已经有了很大的改变。“It’s a subject that was mentioned in 2011 and subsequently had minimal relevance,” said Daniela Sánchez, the director of the Colombia-China Chamber of Commerce.“那是2011年提到的事情,后来几乎销声匿迹,”哥伦比亚-中国商会(Colombia-China Chamber of Commerce)会长达妮埃拉·桑切斯(Daniela Sánchez)说。In Venezuela, Chinese companies actually broke ground on a 290-mile high-speed railway, part of a grandiose plan by President Hugo Chávez, to “rebalance” the population away from the coast.在委内瑞拉,中国公司修建一条290英里长的高铁的项目的确动工了。该项目是委内瑞拉总统乌戈·查韦斯(Hugo Chávez)为将人口从沿海地区“转移”而制定的宏伟计划的一部分。But while Venezuela’s government boasted that passenger service would start in 2012, the project has been fraught for years with work stoppages and money shortfalls on the Venezuelan side. The Chinese authorities say that more than half of the railway has been built, though Venezuelan news media reported in June that work camps on the route had been abandoned.委内瑞拉政府曾夸口称,将在2012开通客运务,但多年来,该项目一直深受停工和委内瑞拉资金不足的困扰。中国当局称项目已完工过半,而委内瑞拉新闻媒体6月报道称,沿线的工地已被废弃。“The process would be faster if we had abundant capital,” Liang Enguang, deputy general manager of the China Railway Engineering Corporation’s Venezuelan unit, told reporters.“如果我们有充足的资金,进程就会更快,”中国铁路工程总公司委内瑞拉分公司副总经理梁恩广(音)对记者表示。An even bigger project floated by a Chinese telecommunications tycoon, a 172-mile canal across Nicaragua, intended as a rival to the Panama Canal, has been met with broad skepticism about its feasibility as well as protests by farmers living along the proposed route.中国的一家电信巨头还提出了一个更大的项目,即修一条172英里长的运河贯穿尼加拉瓜,使其与巴拿马运河竞争。但该项目遭到了生活在规划线路沿线的农民的抗议,其可行性也广受质疑。Despite the obstacles, China has pressed ahead with the twin-ocean railway across Brazil and Peru, building on trade between China and Latin America that surged to 5 billion in 2014, from billion in 2000, according to figures from the International Monetary Fund.尽管面临阻碍,中国仍在以中国与拉美的贸易为基础,推进贯通巴西和秘鲁的两洋铁路项目。来自国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)的数据显示,中国与拉美之间的贸易额已从2000年的120亿美元,增至2014年的2850亿美元。Lucas do Rio Verde, a farming outpost of 70,000 people, could find itself almost in the middle of the proposed 3,300-mile route, raising hopes that it could be transformed into a major agricultural shipping hub.贝尔德河畔卢卡斯是一个偏远的农业城镇,有7万人。它可能会发现自己几乎处在这条3300英里长的规划线路的中间位置。这激起了一些人的希望,以为这座城市可能会变成一个主要的农产品运输中心。But in the shadows of the grain silos towering over soybean fields and the meat-processing plant here, the responses have often involved more shrugging than jumping for joy.但在耸立在大豆田旁边的粮仓及肉制品加工厂投下的阴影里,人们的反应往往更多的是满不在乎,而非欢欣雀跃。“I don’t doubt that China has the money and know-how to make this happen,” said Ricardo Tomczyk, the president of an industry group representing soybean farmers. But “we know that Brazil’s bureaucracy is more formidable than building a railway across the peaks of the Andes.”“我不怀疑中国有做成这件事所需要的资金和技术,”一个代表大豆种植者的行业组织的负责人里卡多·托姆奇克(Ricardo Tomczyk)说。但“我们知道,巴西的官僚主义,比在安第斯山脉的丛山峻林中修铁路更棘手”。More enthusiastic supporters of the venture argue that the recent flux in the Chinese economy is merely a blip in China’s rise in Latin America. Though some economists have noted the steady decline in China’s foreign currency reserves, Chinese banks and engineering companies are still expected to have ample funds for the billion project, they say, despite the recent drop in China’s currency, the renminbi.更热情一些的持者则表示,中国经济最近出现的动荡,只是让该国在拉美崛起的趋势暂时回落。一些经济学家提到了中国外汇储备的稳步下滑,但他们表示,中国的和工程公司依然有望为涉及100亿美元的这一项目提供充足的资金,即便最近中国的货币人民币出现贬值。In fact, some political analysts say that the decline in commodity prices and Brazil’s stumbling economy could actually enhance China’s bargaining power, helping it to persuade the local authorities to accept Chinese terms for the railway.事实上,一些政治分析人士称,大宗商品价格的下跌和巴西经济面临的困境,实际上可能会增加中国讨价还价的能力,帮助中国说地方政府接受中方给修建铁路开出的条件。“Barring a more intense crisis in China, Chinese investors still wield enormous financial clout, far more than the strained players in the Brazilian market,” said André Nassif, an economist at Funda漀 Getúlio Vargas, an elite university in Rio de Janeiro.“除非国内出现更严峻的危机,中国投资者拥有的巨大金融实力,依然大幅压倒巴西市场上那些承受着压力的参与者,”里约热内卢的精英学府瓦加斯商学院(Funda漀 Getúlio Vargas)的经济学者安德烈·纳西夫(André Nassif)说。Still, political leaders, farmers and environmental activists are eyeing China’s difficulties in completing railroads elsewhere in Latin America. They point out Brazil’s particularly nettlesome bureaucracy, its laws prohibiting China from hiring its own laborers, a web of auditing courts, and the capacity of dozens of different prosecutors to cripple megaprojects with lawsuits.然而,政治领袖、农场主和环保活动人士正观察着中国在完成拉美其他地方的铁路时面临的困难。他们指出了巴西特别恼人的官僚体系、禁止中国雇佣自己的工人的法律、错综复杂的审计法庭以及可以通过诉讼打击大型项目的数十名各类检察官。“On top of all that, we have a very fragile government,” said Otaviano Pivetta, the mayor of Lucas do Rio Verde, noting the push to impeach President Dilma Rousseff, who supports the Chinese railway project. “Sure, I’d like this to happen, but we cannot ignore the obstacles.”“除此之外,我们的政府非常脆弱,”贝尔德河畔卢卡斯市长奥塔维亚诺·皮韦塔(Otaviano Pivetta)说。他提到了弹劾持中国铁路项目的总统迪尔玛·罗塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)的行动。“当然,我希望这个项目能做成,但我们不能忽视那些障碍。”China aly outranks the ed States as Brazil’s largest trading partner. But while Chinese demand for commodities fueled the growth of farming cities like Lucas do Rio Verde, exports of soybeans and corn are still largely taken to ports on deplorable public roads like BR-163, a 1,097-mile route cutting across the Amazon.中国已经超越美国,成为巴西最大的贸易伙伴。尽管中国对大宗商品的需求推动了贝尔德河畔卢卡斯等农业城镇的增长,但出口的大豆和玉米,依然主要通过BR-163等路况糟糕的公路运往港口。BR-163是一条穿越亚马孙雨林的线路,长1097英里。Stretches of the road remain unpaved, raising freight costs. When it rains, some truckers along muddy stretches simply find themselves stuck for days.这条路的部分路段仍是土路,这增加了货运成本。下雨天,一些行驶在泥泞路段的货车司机会发现,自己要被困数天。Scholars of China’s ties to Latin America say the proposed railway would go well beyond cutting shipping costs, reflecting Beijing’s efforts to secure raw materials, improve its food security and find new markets for Chinese engineering and rail firms at a time when the nation’s economic growth is slowing.研究中国与拉美的关系的学者称,提议的铁路远不止会削减运输成本,它还反映了中国在国内经济增长放缓之际,为获得原料、增强粮食安全并为中国的工程和铁路公司寻找新市场而采取的行动。“The Chinese don’t fully trust that the U.S. won’t try to restrict them at certain strategic choke points,” said R. Evan Ellis, a professor of Latin American studies at the ed States Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, pointing to China’s reliance on shipping lanes like the Panama Canal.“中国不完全相信美国不会在某些战略要冲上试图限制他们,”美国陆军战争学院战略研究院(ed States Army War College Strategic Studies Institute)的拉美研究教授R·埃文·埃利斯(R. Evan Ellis)说。他指出了中国对巴拿马运河等运输通道的依赖。Some political leaders in both Brazil and Peru have welcomed the Chinese proposal, gauging its seriousness by the fact that Li Keqiang, the Chinese prime minister, personally promoted the project while visiting both countries in May. Chinese officials agreed to deliver a feasibility report in about a year.在巴西和秘鲁,一些政治领袖对中国的提议表示欢迎。他们是根据中国总理李克强在5月访问两国期间亲自促进该项目这个事实,来判断中方的认真程度的。中国官员同意在大约一年后拿出一份可行性报告。The governors of three states in the Brazilian Amazon that the railroad would traverse are voicing support for the railway. But even some who stand to benefit from it acknowledge the vexing array of challenges.铁路将贯穿巴西亚马孙地区的三个州。这三个州的州长均表示持该项目。但就连一些很可能会从中受益的人也承认,存在诸多令人心烦的挑战。“I don’t want to be pessimistic about their railroad, but it will be very hard,” said Marino Franz, a former mayor of Lucas do Rio Verde.“对他们这条铁路,我不想表现得悲观,但这件事的确会很难,”前贝尔德河畔卢卡斯市长马里诺·弗朗茨(Marino Franz)说。Powerful political and business figures, whose river ports and soybean processing centers could be threatened by the railway, are aly blasting the Chinese venture.一些有权势的政界和商界人物已经在炮轰中国这个项目了。他们的河港和大豆加工中心可能会受到铁路的威胁。“I don’t believe in it,” Senator Blairo Maggi, a soybean farmer and former governor of Mato Grosso State told his counterparts in the Senate.“我不相信这个项目,”参议员布莱罗·马吉(Blairo Maggi)在参议院对自己的同僚说。他是一名大豆农场主,曾担任马托格罗索州的州长。Of course, other Chinese infrastructure projects have made progress in Latin America, helping reshape the region. In Argentina, where Chinese companies are upgrading a dilapidated cargo network, imports of railroad materials and trains from China reached around 0 million in 2014, up from million in 2011. In Ecuador, state-owned Chinese banks have aly put nearly billion into the country, building a dam, roads, highways, bridges, and hospitals.当然,中国在拉美的其他基础设施项目已取得进展,帮助重塑了该地区。在阿根廷,中国公司正在对破败的货运网络进行升级,从中国进口铁路材料和火车的贸易额,从2011年的5000万美元,增加到了2014年的约7亿美元。在厄瓜多尔,中国的国有已向该国投入近110亿美元,用于修建大坝、高速公路、桥梁和医院。Some in Brazil argue that Chinese companies are learning from their successes and setbacks. Here in Brazil, Sinopec, the Chinese energy producer, built a .3 billion gas pipeline. Now Brazilian officials are investigating claims of gross overbilling in its construction.一些巴西人称,中国公司正在吸取经验和教训。在巴西,中国能源生产商中国石化投资13亿美元,修建了一条输气管道。眼下,巴西官员正在调查施工过程中存在严重的虚开账单现象的说法。With Brazil’s economy ailing, some powerful officials are signaling that they may be willing to accept China’s proposal, while also suggesting that the railway could be pursued with a less ambitious, piecemeal approach.在巴西经济不景气的情况下,一些有影响力的官员释放的信号表明,他们可能愿意接受中国的提议。但他们也表示,可以用不那么野心勃勃的、循序渐进的方式对待该铁路项目。“The Twin-Ocean Railway could be done in parts,” Nelson Barbosa, Brazil’s planning minister, said in testimony before the Senate, emphasizing in particular two stretches where farming groups have clamored for railroads.“两洋铁路可以分部分进行,”巴西规划部长尼尔森·巴萨(Nelson Barbosa)在参议院作时说。他特别强调了两个路段。在那两个地区,农业团体极力持修建铁路。Mr. Gallagher said the railway ranks among the largest infrastructure projects in Latin America in the last century.加拉格尔称,这个铁路项目可谓是过去一个世纪里拉美地区最大的基础设施项目之一。“China will have to race up the learning curve for this to succeed,” he said. “If the Chinese can’t make this happen, then no one can.”“要想成功,中国必须加快学习步伐,”他说。“如果中国做不成,那就没人能做成了。” /201510/402412

China is becoming an ageing society. But, unlike other ageing societies such as Japan and Germany, it is getting old when its income is still relatively low. In terms of the share of old people in the population, China today looks like Japan at the end of 1980s, but in terms of per-capita gross domestic product, it has just reached the level of Japan in the early 1970s. Japan started more than 20 years of stagnation in the early 1990s, and many people fear that China will follow its footsteps in the next 10 to 20 years.中国正步入老龄化社会。但和日本和德国等其他老龄化社会不同,中国在收入还相对较低的时候就开始老龄化了。就老年人占总人口比例而言,当下的中国就像是上世纪80年代末的日本,但就人均国内生产总值(GDP)而言,中国才刚刚达到日本在上世纪70年代初的水平。日本在上世纪90年代初开始了持续20多年的停滞,许多人担忧中国将在接下来的10到20年里重蹈日本的覆辙。China’s demographic structure was almost the same as India’s until late 1970s when China started to enforce a stringent family planning policy. Since then its demographic transition has been very abrupt. The proportion of people over 60 years old is now more than 12 per cent of the population and those of working-age, between 16 and 65 years old, has begun to decline by 2.5m a year. Furthermore, labour movement from the countryside to the city, which used to be a major source of growth in China, is drying up. According to the official numbers, agriculture still employs 30 per cent of China’s total labour force. But most economists, such as Cai Fang, one of the most prominent economists on labour issues, believe that the real number is much smaller. The average farm is tiny — only about one hectare — so most farmers have to take additional jobs outside the farming sector to sustain a decent living.过去中国的人口结构几乎和印度相同——直到中国在上世纪70年代后期开始推行严格的计划生育政策。其后中国的人口结构转变非常剧烈。现在60岁以上人口已经超过了总人口的12%,而劳动年龄人口,也就是16到65岁之间的人口每年下降250万人。此外,曾经推动中国经济增长的从农村到城市的劳动力流动,正在逐渐枯竭。根据官方数据,农业依然雇佣了中国30%的劳动力。但大多数经济学家(包括劳动力问题研究方面最知名的经济学家之一蔡昉)相信真正的比例要小得多。一般的农地很小,大概一公顷左右,因此大多数农民不得不在务农以外从事额外的工作,才能维持像样的生活。The official data on urbanisation are also problematic. These figures only count people living in government-designated cities as urban dwellers. So, while many villages in coastal provinces have become industrial towns, their inhabitants are still counted as rural dwellers. In recent years, employment growth in coastal provinces has been stagnant. The number of migrant workers has even declined in 2015. Although rural-to-urban labour movement will continue in inland provinces, thanks to the government’s policy aim to move 100m people into the city, it is unlikely to be a major driver for China’s overall growth.官方的城镇化数据也问题重重。这些数据只将在政府指定城市居住的人算作城市居民。因此,尽管许多沿海省份的村子已变成工业城镇,但那里的居民依然被算作农村居民。近年来,沿海省份的就业增长陷入停滞。农民工的数量在2015年甚至还下降了。尽管受政府促进约1亿农业转移人口落户城镇的政策目标推动,内陆省份从农村到城市的劳动力流动将会持续,但这种流动不太可能成为中国总体增长的主要驱动力。The first is to postpone retirement. The current retirement ages were set in the early 1950s. They allow blue-collar female workers to retire at 50, and blue-collar male workers at 55. This means that most women can enjoy a pension for 30 years, probably longer than they have worked for. The sixth National Census (these happen every ten years) conducted in 2010 shows that women’s labour-force participation rate dropped by 20 percentage points at 50. A sensible policy is gradually to raise the retirement ages until they uniformly reach 60.中国能够采取的第一项措施是延迟退休。目前的退休年龄是在上世纪50年代初设定的,允许蓝领女性劳动者在50岁时退休,蓝领男性劳动者在55岁时退休。这意味着大多数女性可以领取30年的养老金,很可能比她们的工作时间还长。2010年的第六次全国人口普查(每十年一次)表明,到50岁时,女性的劳动力参与率会下降20个百分点。明智的政策是逐步提高退休年龄,直到将男女退休年龄统一为60岁。The second thing China can do is continue to raise the educational level of its young people. Currently, less than 40 per cent of young people go to college. While an average young adult in the city can almost always finish high school (having had 12 years of education), his rural counterpart — including migrant workers in the city — barely finishes middle school (nine years of education). The return on education is quite high; one more year of formal education can raise a person’s wage by 10 per cent. On average, people in their 20s have had 4.3 more years of education than people in their 50s.第二项措施是继续提高年轻人的教育水平。目前只有不到40%的年轻人上大学。尽管城市的一般年轻人几乎都能完成高中学业(12年教育),但农村年轻人(包括进城务工的农民工)能完成初中学业(9年教育)就算不错了。教育的回报很高:一个人每多接受一年的正规教育,薪资就能提高10%。平均而言,20多岁的人比50多岁的人多接受4.3年的教育。The third thing is to strengthen research and development. Both Japan and South Korea became world technology leaders after they reached China’s per-capita income of today. This, of course, does not guarantee that China can do the same, but the signs are that it is on the right track. Thanks to its miraculous growth, China has accumulated a huge amount of wealth. As a result, it can afford to increase its Ramp;D spending -and fast. Last year, Ramp;D spending reached 2.1 per cent of GDP; by 2020, it will certainly reach 2.5 per cent, higher than in many advanced countries.第三项措施是加强研究和开发。日本和韩国在人均收入达到当今中国的水平后成为了世界技术领袖。当然,这并不能保中国也能做到同样的事情,但有迹象表明,中国已经走上了正确的轨道。得益于奇迹般的增长,中国积累了大量财富。因此,中国能够快速提高研发出。去年,中国的研发出达到了GDP的2.1%;到2020年,中国的研发出肯定能达到GDP的2.5%,高于许多发达国家。The reforms initiated by Premier Li Keqiang have created a vibrant financial sector that channels money to support innovation; private equity and venture capital companies are flourishing. As a result, private Ramp;D spending is now higher than that by the government.中国总理李克强发起的改革,已建立了一个富有活力的金融业,引导资金持创新;私人股本和风险投资公司正在蓬勃发展。其结果是,私人部门的研发出如今高于政府投入。So, while ageing is taking a toll on China’s growth, it will be balanced in the next 10-15 years by improvements in education and technological capacity as well as policy adjustment on retirement ages. China’s real demographic challenge will only come between 2025 and 2030, when there will be little room left for improvement in education, Ramp;D spending will be likely to plateau, and the baby boomers of the 1960s will have all left the labour force — even if retirement ages are pushed back.因此,尽管老龄化正在损害中国的增长,但在接下来的10到15年,教育程度和技术能力的提高,以及退休年龄的政策调整,将平衡老龄化带来的影响。中国真正的人口结构挑战将在2025到2030年间来临,到那个时候,教育已没有多少改善空间,研发出已进入平台期,上世纪60年代婴儿潮时期出生的人已全部离开劳动力队伍——即使退休年龄推后也是如此。To better prepare for that period, it is probably time for China to give up its family planning policy. The one-child policy was introduced in 1979: the birth rate in the country was 25m in 1987, 20m in 1997 – and 16m last year.要更好地为那个时期做准备,现在很可能是时候放弃计划生育政策了。一胎化政策1979年出台:1987年中国的出生人口为2500万,1997年为2000万,而去年已降至1600万。 /201506/378736The UK will simplify visa applications for Chinese visitors through a new partnership with Belgium which allows travels permits for Britain and the European Schengen area countries to be processed in the same centre.英国将通过与比利时缔结新的合作伙伴关系,简化中国游客的签申请。相关安排将让中国公民在同一个中心申请英国和欧洲申根区国家的签。The move follows lobbying from UK retailers and business groups who complain that London is missing out on high-spending Chinese visitors who can shop in Paris, Milan and Berlin using just one visa covering the 26 nations of Europe’s border-free Schengen zone. Britain is not part of Schengen.此举出台之前,英国零售商和商业团体进行了游说,它们抱怨称,伦敦与花钱豪爽的中国游客擦肩而过,这些游客只需一个覆盖欧洲申根区26个国家的签,即可在巴黎、米兰和柏林购物。英国不是申根协议的一部分。The new UK-Belgium agreement means that Chinese tourists and business people will be able to obtain a visa for Britain and the Schengen area through a single visit to one of three joint application hubs in Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai.新的英国/比利时协议意味着,中国游客和商务人士只需跑一趟北京、广州或上海的联合申请中心,就能获得英国和申根区签。Last summer Theresa May, home secretary, streamlined the system by allowing Chinese visitors to use the same website to apply for a British and a Schengen visa. However, this still fell short of a true joint application system, since those requiring a UK permit were still required to visit a dedicated British visa centre in person to process their biometric data.去年夏天,英国内政大臣特里萨#8226;梅(Theresa May)精简了手续,允许中国游客使用同一个网站申请英国和申根签。然而,这仍算不上真正的联合申请系统,因为需要英国签的人士仍必须亲自跑一趟专门的英国签中心,以便处理他们的生物特征数据。Under the pilot programme, which will open on July 1, Chinese travellers will be able to apply and pay for both UK and Belgian visas online using just one set of supporting documents, then book a single visa appointment to complete the process.根据7月1日启动的试点方案,中国游客将可以在网上申请英国和比利时签并缴费,使用一套明文件,然后获得一个签预约以完成整个过程。Despite the current obstacles, the number of UK visitor visas issued to Chinese tourists and business people increased by 10 per cent in the year to March. The benefits of collaboration with Belgium may be relatively slim, given that relatively few Chinese visitors travel there.尽管目前存在种种障碍,但在截至今年3月的一年里,英国发放给中国游客和商务人士的旅游签数量增加了10%。与比利时合作的好处可能相对较小,因为前往该国的中国游客相对较少。In 2013, France admitted 335,961 Chinese visitors, while the figure for Italy was 333,705, and for Germany 268,404. The UK issued 291,919 Chinese visitor visas that year, compared to Belgium’s 14,223.2013年,法国迎来33.5961万中国游客,而意大利的这个数字是33.3705万,德国是26.8404万。英国在那一年向中国公民发放了29.1919万个旅游签,而比利时只发放了1.4223万个签。 /201506/382359

The shadows covered my ball like giant trash bags, and the subtle breaks in the green blended together as if coated in paint. I didn’t care — how could I? I was playing golf at night.阴影像巨大的垃圾袋笼罩了我的球。这片果岭上的细小转折都混在了一起,像刷上了油漆。但我不在乎——在乎又能怎样?我正在晚上打着高尔夫呢。For many casual golfers, this would qualify as the Holy Grail. After all, one of the most difficult things about being a golfer is the time required to complete 18 holes, and while finishing a round in about four hours generally inspires feelings of sheer giddiness among players, those emotions are not typically shared by the player’s waiting spouse or family members. A “quick round” on a weekend often occupies at least half of that day’s daylight hours — a reality that can be especially infuriating if, say, a family is on vacation at the time.对许多休闲高尔夫玩家而言,这就像圣杯(Holy Grail)那么可望而不可及。毕竟,要成为一名高尔夫玩家,最困难的一件事莫过于必须在限定的时间内打完全部的18个洞,虽然在四小时左右打完一场高尔夫,一般会让玩家们高兴得晕头转向,不过这样的情感往往不会感染到那些在苦苦守候他们打完高尔夫的爱人或家人。即便周末“速战速决”地打一场高尔夫,通常也会占用那个白天一大半的时间,这足以让一家人都勃然大怒了,如果那时候他们正好在度假的话。Given that perpetual obstacle, let me offer this suggestion to those golfers who also happen to enjoy spending time with their loved ones: Get yourself to Dubai.考虑到这个一直都存在的问题,请允许我给那些刚好也喜欢和爱人们待在一起的高尔夫玩家们提供一个建议吧:到迪拜去。This may seem incongruous; certainly no one would argue that Dubai, a city that sometimes feels as if it is being built one (oversized) Lego at a time, has the golf cachet of Pebble Beach, Calif., or Pinehurst, N.C. But then, where else can you go on a winter jaunt that will allow you to spend a day at the beach or in a bustling array of old-town markets or atop the observation deck of the world’s tallest skyscraper before having an early dinner with the family, putting the kids to bed and then, with tourist responsibilities fully completed, grabbing your clubs and playing 18 holes with a sky full of stars along for the ride?这话听起来像是乱扯一气;当然没人会说,迪拜这座有时像是用巨型乐高积木一次一块地搭建起来的城市,能像加州的卵石滩、或北卡罗莱纳州的派恩赫斯特(Pinehurst)那样,是最优秀的高尔夫球场。但转念一想,你去哪儿做个冬季的短途旅行能让你像在迪拜一样,白天去海滩上躺一躺,或在熙熙攘攘的闹市区逛一逛,或在那座世界最高的天大楼的观景台上看一看,然后和家人提前吃个晚餐,再把孩子们都哄着上床睡觉,等到作为旅行者的责任都圆满完成后,你再抓起自己的高尔夫球杆,去打一场18个洞的高尔夫球,一路有满天的繁星陪伴着你呢?I was in Dubai late last year to report a few stories for The New York Times but, as I teed off on the Faldo Course at the Emirates Golf Club shortly before 8 one night, it did not escape me that I was beginning my round at roughly the same time as my children would be going to sleep back home. It was a liberating feeling and, also, wholly unfamiliar; after all, so many rounds played by so many golfers around the world involve a mental countdown clock, a harried feeling of needing to hustle so as to be done in time for a soccer practice/baseball game/dance recital/trip to Home Depot.去年下半年,我在迪拜为《纽约时报》做几篇报道,有天晚上快到8点钟的时候,我在阿联酋高尔夫俱乐部的福尔多球场上挥起了球杆,但我忽然想到,开始打这场高尔夫的时间,也正是我的孩子们要回家睡觉的时间。我立刻有了一种自由自在的感觉,不过也是一种非常陌生的感觉,毕竟,世界各地的许多高尔夫玩家在打高尔夫球时,心里都在倒计时,总觉得要动作快一点,匆匆忙忙地把球打完,以便能赶上一次足球训练,或一场棒球比赛,或一次舞蹈表演,又或一次去家得宝(Home Depot)的购物。This was different. At night, the pace of play is quick but the emotions are gloriously slower and dreamier. Like everything else in Dubai, there is construction all around the course at Emirates, but the whirring of the cranes and the backfiring of the ubiquitous trucks quiet to a hum after dark and the skyline that rises above the course, topped, of course, by the spindly Burj Khalifa, makes golfers feel as if they are tiptoeing (or, really, gliding in electric carts) among a cadre of neon giants.这种感觉大不一样。在夜间打球,虽然速度一样很快,心里却一点儿也不急,而且还有一种优哉游哉的感觉。与迪拜的其他地方一样,阿联酋高尔夫球场的周围也在大兴土木,但入夜之后,那些起重机的嗡嗡声和随处可见的卡车所发出的噪音都沉寂了下来,而球场上空的城市天际线,还有其中最高的哈利法塔(Burj Khalifa),会让那些高尔夫玩家们觉得,他们似乎在踮着脚尖(实际上是乘坐着电动车)穿梭于一群霓虹巨人之间。In many ways, a fully floodlit golf course is typical Dubai. There are other places around the world where one can, technically, play golf at night, but these are often tiny tracks, a course of short holes where one might need only a few clubs and an hour’s time to get around. Paying to install bright lights all over a course that can stretch more than 7,000 yards and aly requires a pricey maintenance that includes one million gallons of water per day in the heat of the desert summer is both lavish and ostentatious. But then, those are two adjectives that are not used infrequently in these parts.全灯光照明的高尔夫球场,从各个方面来看都是典型的迪拜特色。世界上还有一些别的地方从技术上说也能在夜间打高尔夫球,但那些地方通常不大,球洞的距离较短,所以你可能只需要几球杆和一个小时的时间就能打完一场高尔夫。花钱给一个绵延7000多码(约6400米)的高尔夫球场装上明亮的灯光设备不但奢侈而且招摇,这样一座球场已经需要一笔不菲的维护费用了,其中包括在沙漠中心地带酷热难当的夏季,每天都要供应100万加仑(440万升)的水。但另一方面,奢侈和招摇本来就是在迪拜常用的形容词。From a design standpoint, the Faldo Course itself is not breathtaking; its sister layout at Emirates, the Majlis, is generally regarded as superior and hosts professional events throughout the year. But while one can certainly choose to play either course during the day, the true allure here is obvious: Why wouldn’t the casual golfer find something else to do in the morning — consider this an enthusiastic plug for visiting the local camel racing track, where the action begins at sunrise — while saving the joy (and pain) of golf for evening?从设计的角度来看,福尔多球场本身并不十分惊人;人们通常认为福尔多的球场——阿联酋的Majlis级别更高,而且那里一年举办多场专业的高尔夫比赛。但是,虽然你在白天可以任意选择去哪座球场,但真正能诱惑你的地方还是显而易见的:为什么休闲高尔夫玩家早上不能去找点别的事情做——考虑到这时候可以兴致勃勃地去看当地的骆驼赛跑,这项活动总是在黎明的时候开始——而把打高尔夫的快乐(与痛苦)都留待晚上呢?All the perks of playing a luxury club remain the same. On my visit, I enjoyed a tasty dinner in the clubhouse restaurant after arriving at the course and changed my shoes in the plush locker room (complete with sauna and steam room) before warming up at the capacious driving range with a set of rental clubs that were top-of-the-line. There were even birds chirping and flying about, their internal body clocks apparently so altered by the bright lights that dusk and dawn have become malleable concepts.豪华高尔夫球场提供的福利都是一样的。我那次去打球的时候,到了球场,在舒适的更衣间(带桑拿与蒸汽房,一应俱全)里换了鞋子之后,就在这家俱乐部的餐厅里享用了一顿美味的晚餐,再来到宽敞的练习场内,用一套租来的顶级球杆热了热身。这里甚至有小鸟叽叽喳喳,飞来飞去,它们的生物钟显然已经受到了明亮灯光的干扰,以至于把晨昏当成了一种可控的概念。Yes, there is some acclimatizing required for night golf: Constantly hitting out of my own (long) shadow took some getting used to, and budding Rory McIlroys who like to analyze every nook and cranny of a green’s tilt will suffer eye strain if they try to identify whether a putt has precisely two inches of break. Tracking the ball’s flight, too, can be a challenge, particularly for shots that fly far from the target line (though that is a problem that is not, shall we say, exclusive to the nighttime). One gentleman I came across recommended switching to a pink ball for greater visibility.当然,要在夜间打高尔夫,还有一些抵抗水土不的要求:我总是要在自己(长长的)影子里打球,这得花些时间来习惯,还有那些刚崭露头角、喜欢仔细分析果岭倾斜处的每个角落与缝隙的罗里·麦克罗伊(Rory McIlroys)之流,如果要去判断一次推杆是否丝毫不差地有两英寸的转折,他们很快就会产生视觉疲劳。追踪球的飞行轨迹可能也是个挑战,尤其是那些打偏了的球(虽然我们说,那个问题并非夜间打高尔夫球所独有的)。我遇见过的一位绅士曾建议,为了看得更清楚一些,可以改用粉红色的球。Golf, like many sports in the ed Arab Emirates, is not a particularly big draw for locals, so the majority of players at Emirates are visitors or expatriates. I played with a Welshman during my visit and as we made our way down the 14th hole sometime after 10 o’clock, we couldn’t help but pause for a moment.高尔夫正如阿联酋的许多运动项目一样,对当地人并不是特别有吸引力,所以这里大部分的高尔夫玩家都是游客或移民。我那次去是与一位威尔士人一起打球,到晚上10点钟时,我们一路打到了第14个球洞,于是都忍不住休息了一会儿。It was the quietest part of the course, tucked away from the croaks and moans of the construction. There were no other golfers around. No cars alongside. No cellphone buzzing in the cart with a text message asking how much longer we would be.这里是这片高尔夫球场中最安静的地方,远离了建筑施工轰轰隆隆的噪音。周围再没有其他的高尔夫玩家了。旁边也没有球车。更没有手机的短信提醒震动——询问我们还要玩多久。There was only a willowy tree canopy looming behind the green and us, two golfers playing a daytime sport, chasing our shots toward a flagstick lit up beneath the moon.这里只有一棵树,那稀疏的树冠笼罩在我们和这片果岭的后面,两名高尔夫玩家正在进行一项白天的运动,追逐着我们打出去的球,迈向一根在月光下闪闪发亮的旗杆。If You Go如果你去的话The Emirates Golf Club (Emirates Hills 2, Dubai, ed Arab Emirates; 971-4-417-9800; dubaigolf#173;.com) is about 30 minutes from the Dubai airport and roughly 25 minutes from Jumeirah Beach. Hotel options, of varying prices, are plentiful in the surrounding area. Greens fees for night golf on the Faldo Course are 425 dirhams, about 8, at 3.60 dirhams to the dollar. Fees for rental clubs are 195 dirhams.阿联酋高尔夫俱乐部(地址在阿联酋的迪拜,阿联酋山2号;971-4-417-9800;dubaigolf-.com)距迪拜机场大约30分钟,距卓美亚海滩(Jumeirah Beach)约25分钟。该区域周围有许多各种价格的酒店可供选择。福尔多夜间高尔夫球场的费用为425迪拉姆,按照1美元兑3.6迪拉姆的汇率,约为118美元(约合人民币732元)。球杆的租赁费用为195迪拉姆(约合人民币335元)。 /201506/378539Survey on youth netizens青少年网民调查By December 2014, the number of Chinese youth netizens amounted to 277m, or 79.6% of Chinese youth population, according to a report released by China Internet Network Information Center.中国互联网络信息中心近日发布的报告显示,截至2014年12月,中国青少年网民规模达到2.77亿,占中国青少年人口总数的79.6%。Virtual music, game, and online literature were all more frequently used by young Internet users than other online groups generally, the report said.报告显示,青少年网民使用网络音乐、网络游戏、网络视频和网络文学这四类应用的比例均高于网民总体水平。Young Internet users also have high credibility for and deep dependence on the Web world, but hold low awareness of network security.同时,青少年对互联网信任度高、依赖性强,网络安全意识弱。 /201506/379575Sales of Chinese-branded passenger vehicles have collapsed in the world’s largest car market, sharpening a debate about whether the sector should be opened further to foreign investors.中国国产品牌的乘用车在国内市场(全球最大汽车市场)销量大幅下跌,激化了有关汽车行业是否应当进一步对外国投资者开放的辩论。The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said yesterday that domestic carmakers had sold 457,000 own-brand passenger saloons in January and February, a 21 per cent decline from the same period last year.中国汽车工业协会(China Association of Automobile Manufacturers)昨日宣布,国内汽车生产商今年1至2月共售出自有品牌乘用轿车45.7万辆,较去年同期下降了21%。Their market share fell from 27 per cent at the end of last year to less than 23 per cent.国内汽车生产商的市场份额从去年年底的27%降至不足23%。This contrasted with a 5 per cent year-on-year increase in overall saloon sales during the period, to 2m units.而同期中国乘用轿车的销售总量较上年增长了5%,达到200万辆。Including a surge in sales of SUVs, passenger car sales in China increased more than 11 per cent year on year to 2.6m units. Most of the market was captured by joint ventures between Chinese and multinational carmakers, which are not allowed to take more than a 50 per cent stake in operations.若计入运动型多功能车(SUV)的销量增长,今年1至2月中国的乘用车销量同比增长超过11%,达到了260万辆。主导中国乘用车市场的是由中国国内企业和跨国汽车生产商组建的合资企业,外资在合资企业中的持股比例不能超过50%的上限。Suggestions by government officials that the ceiling on foreign investment should be raised have sparked an intense debate about the future of Chinese brands, which have struggled to compete with their foreign-invested rivals and imports.政府官员有关外资上限应当调高的提议,激起了有关中国国产汽车品牌未来发展的一场激烈辩论,国产品牌在与外资竞争对手以及进口汽车的竞争中处境艰难。A CAAM official said last month that Chinese brands would be “killed in the cradle” if the restriction was relaxed.中国汽车工业协会的一位官员上月表示,如果持股上限放松,中国国产汽车品牌可能“被扼杀在摇篮里”。The overall strength of China’s car market contrasted sharply with India’s. Car sales in Asia’s third-largest economy rose slightly in February, ending a long period of decline.中国汽车市场的整体强劲状况与印度形成鲜明对比。作为亚洲第三大经济体,印度2月份的汽车销售量略微增长,结束了长时期的下降趋势。 /201403/279311

Malaysian authorities say they ;remain puzzled; about the disappearance of a Malaysia Airlines flight, saying there has been no confirmation that debris has been found.马来西亚当局表示他们对马航客机MH370失联“仍然困惑”,并表示目前还无法确认残骸已找到。Earlier today there were reports that possible debrisfrom the plane had been found in the sea off Vietnam#39;s south coast.今天早些时候有报道称,在越南南部海岸发现了疑似失联飞机的残骸。But today Malaysia#39;s chief investigator said Vietnamese authorities had not confirmed sighting any wreckage, and said authorities ;remained puzzled; about the disappearance.但是马来西亚的首席调查官表示,越南当局并没有实找到残骸这一消息,他们对飞机的失踪也感到“困惑不解”。;We are looking at every possible aspect of what could have happened,; said Azharuddin Abdul Rahman.“我们正在寻找一切可能导致飞机失踪的原因”,调查官阿扎鲁迪·阿卜杜勒·拉赫曼说道。;We have to find the aircraft; we are intensifying our efforts to locate the aircraft.“我们必须要找到飞机;为此我们加强了搜寻力度。”;We understand you want answers from us, you want details ... we are equally eager as you are to find details and parts of the aircraft.“我们理解你们想从我们这儿得到,你们想知道细节的情况……我们也跟你们一样非常迫切地希望找到飞机的残骸或者一些细节信息。”;Every hour, every second we are looking at every inch of the sea.;“每一小时,每一秒钟,我们无时不刻在搜索着每一寸海域。”Mr Azharuddin said hijacking has not been ruled outand investigators are looking at all possibilities.阿札鲁迪先生称不排除空中劫持的可能性,另外调查人员正在排查一切可能的原因。The plane last had contact with air traffic controllers 120 nautical miles off the east coast of the Malaysian town of Kota Bharu on Saturday.周六,失联飞机与空中管制台进行最后一次的联络的地点是距马来西亚哥达巴鲁东海岸120海里处。No distress signals were received from the Boeing 777-200ER before its disappearance.在失联之前,这架波音777-200ER飞机并没有发出任何求救信号。 /201403/279576

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