原标题: 襄樊职业技术学院附属医院割包皮手术价格康泰乐园
Inflated Chinese export data are back.中国再度出现虚报出口数据现象。The ruse of puffed-up export invoices to convert extra foreign currency into renminbi is on the rise again, casting doubt on recent strong export data.虚报出口发票、以把更多外币兑换成人民币的手法再次盛行,令中国近来强劲的出口数据招致怀疑。Chinese exports hit a high of 4bn in September, well ahead of forecasts. Growth of 15.3 per cent from a year earlier was also the swiftest pace in 20 months.今年9月,中国出口额达到2140亿美元,远胜预期,同比增速达15.3%,也是20个月内最快的一次。That looked like good news for an economy where fixed-asset investment, traditionally the biggest growth driver, is slowing on the back of a weak property market.这对中国经济来说似乎是好消息。在房地产市场疲弱的背景下,传统上最强大的增长推动因素——固定资产投资已开始放缓。But economists warn that true export demand may be weaker than meets the eye.但经济学家们警告称,真实出口需求可能比人们眼中看到的更为疲弱。The gap between Chinese exports to Hong Kong and Hong Kong imports from China – theoretically two sides of the same coin and based on customs data from the two jurisdictions – rose sharply in September.9月,中国内地对香港出口与香港从中国内地进口之间的差距大幅升高。在理论上,这两者是同一枚硬币的正反两面,是基于两地的海关数据得出的。For analysts, that suggests Chinese exporters are again using phantom exports to Hong Kong as a means to skirt the country’s strict capital controls and bring in foreign money.在分析师看来,这说明中国出口商又开始通过虚构对香港出口,来绕开该国严格的资本管制、把外国资金带入境内。“The apparent re-emergence of over-invoicing strengthens our view that China’s September export data do not herald strong sustained actual export growth,” wrote Louis Kujis, chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland.“虚构出口发票做法明显再度增多,让我们更坚定地认识到,中国9月的出口数据并不预示该国实际出口会保持强劲增速,”苏格兰皇家(RBS)首席经济学家高路易(Louis Kuijs)写道。Inflated export invoices has long been an issue in China. The Chinese currency is freely convertible for trade purposes, but investment flows remain tightly controlled. The lure of higher interest rates, as well as a steadily rising currency, creates an incentive to circumvent these controls. Disguising hot money inflows as trade has long been the most common technique.虚报出口发票是中国的一个老问题。中国货币仅在用于贸易时才可以自由兑换,但用作投资时仍受到严格管制。人民币利率更高且处于稳步升值通道,吸引一些人逃过这些管制,最常用的办法就是把热钱伪装成出口收入、带入中国境内。Such activity died down earlier this year, as the central bank engineered a weakening of the Chinese currency and the foreign exchange regulator launched a crackdown on illicit flows今年早些时候,中国央行策划了一次人民币贬值,外汇管理机构也发起了打击非法资金流的行动,使得这一做法逐渐减少。But the renminbi has come storming back in recent months, hitting an eight-month high on Wednesday. The world-beating performance of the Shanghai equity market in recent months has provided an additional enticement.但近几个月来,人民币汇率有所反弹,周三曾创下8个月高点。近几个月上海股市行情好过其它全球股市,也使人民币产生了额外的吸引力。Economists say that this time companies seem to be using new methods to skirt capital controls. Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics notes that Chinese imports also appeared inflated in September, judging by the gap between Chinese and South Korean data on Chinese imports from South Korea.经济学家表示,这一次,企业似乎开始用新办法绕开资本管制。凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的朱利安#8226;埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)指出,9月中国的进口额似乎也有虚报,从中韩两国各自公布的中国从韩国进口数据的差距中可以看出这一点。“That both imports and exports surged in tandem suggests firms are ‘round-tripping’ – importing a good and then re-exporting it to a related party at a mark-up to bring money into the country,” Mr Evans-Pritchard wrote this week.“中国进口与出口同时猛增,表明企业在使用‘往返套利’手法——即进口一种商品,然后标高价格、把它出口给一个关联方,由此把资金带入境内,”埃文斯-普里查德本周写道。“We … don’t have a strong explanation for why firms are going to the trouble of importing from Korea rather than Hong Kong. Our best guess is that, as authorities have cracked down on fake invoicing, firms have had to become more creative in how they game the system.”“我们……对于企业为何舍近求远地从韩国而不是香港进口,找不到有说力的理由。我们最合理的猜测是,由于当局一直打击虚报出口发票,企业不得不在如何利用体制漏洞上变得更有想象力。”Wang Tao of UBS estimates that after correcting for over-invoicing, trade growth in the third quarter was only 11 per cent, compared with 13 per cent growth shown in official Chinese data.瑞银(UBS)的汪涛估计,对发票虚报部分调整之后,中国三季度的贸易增幅仅为11%,而不是官方数据中所显示的13%。That suggests that much like consumption, Chinese exports are in decent shape but will not be enough to arrest China’s investment-led slowdown.这表明,跟消费大体相似,中国出口虽然不错,但将不足以阻止中国投资导致的增长放缓趋势。 /201410/339238The US imported more tea than the UK last year for the first time, as an increasing number of young American consumers are choosing the brew over coffee.随着越来越多的美国年轻消费者选择喝茶而不是咖啡,去年美国的茶叶进口量首次超过英国。US imports of tea have risen 30 per cent by volume in the past decade, according to data from the International Trade Centre. Imports totalled 129,166 tonnes in 2014, compared with the UK’s 126,512 tonnes.国际贸易中心(International Trade Centre)的数据显示,过去十年美国茶叶进口量增长了30%。2014年,美国总共进口了129166吨茶叶,英国则进口了126512吨。In the UK — still one of the leading tea consuming nations — sales are declining, with imports falling 20 per cent in the past decade.虽然英国仍是领先的茶叶消费国之一,但在英国,茶叶销量却在下降。过去十年,英国茶叶进口量下降了20%。Peter Goggi, president of the Tea Association of the USA, said the increase in tea consumption was most pronounced among those aged between 16 and 26. “What we’re seeing is the message that tea is good for your health has really permeated,” he said.美国茶叶协会(Tea Association)主席彼得#8226;戈吉(Peter Goggi)表示,茶叶消费量增长在16岁到26岁人群当中体现得最明显。他说:“我们发现,喝茶有益健康的理念确实已被广泛接受。”A survey by pollster YouGov in the US also highlighted the rising popularity of tea among younger consumers. It found that coffee and tea were equally popular among 18 to 29-year-old people but 62 per cent of 45 to 64-year-old people and 70 per cent of over-65s preferred coffee.民意调查公司YouGov在美国开展的一项调查也突显出,茶叶在较年轻消费者当中越来越受欢迎。该公司发现,在18岁到29岁人群当中,咖啡与茶的受欢迎度是相等的。但在45岁到64岁人群当中,62%的人更喜欢喝咖啡。在65岁以上人群当中,选择咖啡的比例达到70%。Iced tea has always dominated the tea category in the US but anecdotal evidence suggests consumption of hot tea is on the rise.在美国茶类饮料中,冰茶一直占主导地位。不过坊间据显示,热茶消费量正在增长。Tea shops are popping up nationwide, with the drink emerging as a low-fat beverage of choice. Starbucks moved into tea by buying Teavana, a speciality company, in 2012.随着茶饮日益成为一种低脂饮料选择,茶店正在美国各地迅速涌现。2012年,星巴克(Starbuck)通过收购专营茶饮的公司Teavana进入了茶饮市场。The rise in tea consumption in the US comes as coffee drinking is on the wane. According to the National Coffee Association’s latest annual survey, 59 per cent of Americans said they drank a cup of coffee a day, down from 61 per cent in 2014 and 63 per cent in 2013.在美国茶叶消费量增长之际,咖啡消费量却在减少。美国国家咖啡协会(National Coffee Association)最新年度调查报告显示,59%的美国人表示他们每天会喝一杯咖啡,这一比例低于2014年的61%,也低于2013年的63%。This is bad news for coffee traders aly fretting about the fall in arabica bean prices.对于已经在为阿拉比卡咖啡豆价格下跌感到担忧的咖啡交易商来说,这可是个坏消息。In the UK more people are turning to coffee. Tea consumption has fallen steadily from 1.6kg per person in 2009 to 1.4kg in 2014, compared with a rise in coffee usage from 0.9kg per person to 1.2kg over the same period.而在英国,更多的人则在转向咖啡。2009年到2014年,英国年人均茶叶消费量已从1.6公斤稳步降至1.4公斤;同一时期,年人均咖啡消费量却从0.9公斤升至1.2公斤。 /201503/364783

Twitter Inc. Chief Executive Dick Costolo is in Shanghai for a few days, but that doesn#39;t mean Twitter will follow.推特(Twitter)首席执行长科斯特罗(Dick Costolo)人在上海,他将在这里小住几日,但这不意味这推特也会跟随他的脚步进入中国。The U.S. social media network confirmed Monday that Mr. Costolo was in China to #39;learn more about Chinese culture and the country#39;s thriving technology sector.#39;推特周一确认,科斯特罗人在上海,他到中国来是为了更多地了解中国文化和中国正在蓬勃发展的科技业。Mr. Costolo will be meeting with professors and students from Shanghai#39;s famed Fudan University as well as government officials and business leaders, according to a person familiar with the visit.据了解科斯特罗这次访问的人说,他将与上海复旦大学的一些教授和学生见面,同时参加的还包括政府官员和商界领袖。Though it might be tempting to assume Mr. Costolo is in fact feeling out the possibility getting Twitter into China, it#39;s unlikely that#39;s the case. In its statement, Twitter also said that it has #39;no plans to change anything about our service in order to enter the market.#39;尽管有人或许会推论,科斯特罗来中国实际上是为推特进入中国的可能性做一番探查,但实际情况可能并非如此。推特在声明中还说,没有计划为了进入这一市场对我们的务做出任何改变。In China, most Internet companies are tasked with monitoring and censoring their social networks. Were Twitter to set up in China, it would almost certainly have to cooperate with the Chinese government#39;s censorship demands -- something it is signaling it will not do.在中国,大多数互联网公司都会承担监督和审查其社交网络的任务。如果推特进入中国,几乎可以肯定,它也要配合中国政府的审查要求,而推特发出的信号则表明它不会这么做。Even if Twitter were to try to cooperate with the Chinese government, it would be unlikely to get a stamp of approval.即便推特是要试图与中国政府合作,也不大可能得到批准。The service has been blocked in China since 2009, due to government concerns it could be used to organize protests like those that were helping topple regimes in the Middle East at the time, according to analysts. Fears that social media could be used to coordinate protests against the government are alive and well in China, which is in the midst of a sustained government crackdown on online discourse.分析人士说,自从2009年开始,推特在中国的务就被封了,原因是政府担心它可能被用来组织抗议(当时,类似的抗议在推翻一些中东国家政府方面发挥了作用)。在中国,有关社交媒体可以被用来协调反对政府的抗议者的担忧大有市场,正因如此,政府才对互联网言论进行持续不断的打击。Instead of trying to get Twitter into China, Mr. Costolo may simply be seeking to understand the world#39;s largest and most isolated Internet market. Though many products on China#39;s Internet remain copies of products coming out in the U.S., intense local competition and specific demands of local users are slowly leading Chinese companies to push in directions not anticipated by Silicon Valley.科斯特罗并非试图让推特进入中国,他可能只是希望了解中国这个全球最大、但也最封闭的互联网市场。尽管中国互联网上的许多产品仍是美国产品的复制,但本地竞争的加剧和本地用户的特殊需求正逐渐促使中国企业在硅谷预料之外的道路上推进。Beijing Momo Technology Co., a dating app that had about 35 million monthly active users at the end of 2013, pre-dated its U.S. equivalent, Tinder. Another example that likely hits closer to home for Mr. Costolo is Sina Corp.#39;s Weibo, which popularized a number of features that would eventually make it into Twitter. Though Weibo still looks and feels very complicated to a U.S. Internet user, it pre-dated Twitter in allowing embedded comments and replies to a post and also to giving photos a prominent presence in a users#39; stream.北京陌陌科技有限公司(Beijing Momo Technology Co.)旗下有一款约会应用,2013年年底的月度活跃用户数约为3,500万。早在美国市场推出同类产品Tinder之前,这款应用就已经推出了。对于科斯特罗,另外一个例子可能更有参考价值,这就是新浪公司(Sina Corp.)旗下的微(Weibo)。新浪微推广了一些功能,而这些功能将最终使它媲美推特。尽管对于美国互联网用户来说,新浪微在外观和感觉上都还非常复杂,但新浪微早在推特之前就允许用户对发布的内容进行嵌入式和回复,同时还在用户数据流中给照片提供了一个重要地位。For years now, China#39;s start-ups have been studying how Silicon Valley works. Valley executives give talks at a proliferating number of start-up accelerators and cafes where entrepreneurs hang out. Some companies, like app search engine Wandoujia, even send employees on yearly trips to northern California to learn more about the culture, and visit the headquarters of the most iconic U.S. Internet firms.多年来,中国初创企业一直在学习硅谷模式。在数量不断增多的创业加速器以及企业家喜欢去的咖啡厅内,硅谷高管们会发表演讲。应用搜索引擎豌豆荚(Wandoujia)等公司甚至每年都会派员工前往加州北部,以便更深入地学习硅谷文化并访问最有代表性的美国互联网公司的总部。Mr. Costolo may well be the first wave of Americans doing the reverse, coming to China to look for new features, business models and even products that could do well if brought back to the U.S. Even if the trip isn#39;t as pointed as that, it still shows that China#39;s Internet market, though isolated from much of the world, has a gravity all its own that has an increasing pull to those thousands of miles away in the U.S.科斯特罗很可能是第一批反其道而行的美国人,到中国来寻找新的特色和商业模式,甚至寻找那些带回美国就可能有良好表现的产品。即便这种访问并不那么有目的性,但这仍表明,尽管中国互联网市场与世界大部分地区相对孤立,但这一市场本身就是非常重要的,对那些远在千里之外的美国人产生了越来越大的吸引力。 /201403/280480

China may have recorded its worst annual growth rate in nearly a quarter of a century but the country’s leadership does not appear too worried.中国也许出现了近四分之一个世纪以来最低的年度增长率,但这个国家的领导层似乎不太担心。“The national economy has been running steadily under the ‘new normal’, showing good momentum of stable growth, optimised structure, enhanced quality and improved livelihoods,” Ma Jiantang, head of China’s National Bureau of Statistics, said on Tuesday as he revealed the economy had grown 7.4 per cent last year, the slowest pace since 1990.“国民经济在新常态下保持平稳运行,呈现出增长平稳、结构优化、质量提升、民生改善的良好态势,”中国国家统计局(NBS)局长马建堂周二表示。他公布中国经济去年增长7.4%,这是自1990年以来最慢的增长步伐。The main reason for the nonchalance is the fact that job creation and wage growth in China are both chugging along steadily, even as the economy slowed from 7.7 per cent growth in both 2012 and 2013.这种不担心的主要原因是中国的就业创造和工资上涨都在稳步推进,即便经济增速从2012年和2013年7.7%的水平有所放缓。China created 13.22m jobs last year and this, combined with the fact the slowdown has so far been gradual, has convinced the Communist party it can allow growth to slow further.去年中国创造了1322万就业岗位,而且经济增长放缓迄今是逐渐的。这些情况使共产党确信,它可以允许增长进一步放缓。Overall employment pressure is also fading because China’s working-age population peaked in 2011 and is expected to fall at an accelerating rate in the coming years, thanks largely to the decades-old one-child policy.总体就业压力也在减轻,因为中国的劳动年龄人口已经在2011年见顶,预计将在未来几年加快下降——这归因于实行几十年的一胎化政策。China’s working-age population fell 3.71m last year, after falling 2.44m in 2013.中国的劳动年龄人口去年下降了371万,此前在2013年下降了244万。But China’s official unemployment statistics are the worst of a notoriously unreliable set, raising a worrying question over whether Beijing’s sang-froid is misguided.不过,中国官方的失业统计数字以不可靠出名,这就带来一个令人担忧的问题:中国高层的镇定是不是受到误导的?The country’s official jobless rate has remained unchanged, at 4.1 per cent, for the past five years.过去五年来,中国的官方失业率一直保持在4.1%不变。It has fluctuated in a tiny band between 4.0 per cent and 4.3 per cent for the past 13 years, a period in which the quarterly year-on-year GDP growth rate was as high as 14 per cent and as low as 6 per cent.过去13年里,这个数字在4.0%至4.3%的狭窄区间里波动,即便在此期间季度同比GDP增长率最高为14%,最低为6%。The government itself acknowledges this number is not credible and has for many years gathered its own internal data, which it periodically announces but does not regularly publish.政府自己也承认这个数字是不可信的,并已多年采集自己的内部数据,后者不定期宣布,但没有定期发布。On Tuesday, in response to a question from the Financial Times, Mr Ma said these internal “non-published” data put the real jobless rate in China at 5.1 per cent last year.周二,在回答英国《金融时报》提出的问题时,马建堂表示,根据这些“没有正式发布”的内部数据,中国去年的实际失业率为5.1%。The debate over China’s real unemployment rate is not just academic.围绕中国实际失业率的辩论不仅仅是学术性的。Since at least 1989, Beijing’s top priority has been to create enough jobs to maintain social stability and head off popular uprisings that could overthrow the authoritarian state.至少自1989年以来,中国高层的首要任务一直是创造足够的就业机会,以维护社会稳定,阻止可能推翻威权政府的群体性事件。As recently as 2011, the government regarded 8 per cent annual growth as a quasi-mystical threshold, below which Chinese society would descend into chaos and the Communist dynasty would implode.就在2011年,政府还把每年增长8%当作某种近乎神奇的门槛,仿佛达不到这个门槛中国社会就会陷入混乱,共产党王朝就会发生内爆。Thanks to a much larger base, less pressure from demographics and a gradual shift in the economy away from heavy industry towards labour-intensive services, the government’s new growth threshold is somewhere between 6.5 per cent and 7 per cent.由于基数扩大了许多、人口压力减轻,以及中国经济从重工业向劳动力密集的务业逐渐转型,政府设定的新增长门槛介于6.5%和7%之间。“The [official, published] unemployment rate is based on the number of people who register as unemployed but most people who lose their jobs in China have no incentive to register,” says Ding Dajian, associate professor at People’s University School of Labor and Human Resources. “In the worst years, the government was not willing to publish the [more accurate internal] unemployment rate, which scholars estimated as high as 20 per cent. Now pressure in the labour market has really moderated so it is a very good time to announce the real unemployment rate.”“(官方发布的)失业率是基于登记失业的人数,但中国大多数失业者没有登记的动力,”中国人民大学劳动人事学院副教授丁大建表示。“在最糟糕的年份,政府不愿意发布(更精确的内部)失业率,学者们估计该数字可能高达20%。现在,劳动力市场的压力确实减轻了,所以这是一个宣布实际失业率的很好时机。”Some analysts believe the internal figure revealed by Mr Ma on Tuesday is still too low.一些分析师认为,马建堂周二透露的内部数字仍然偏低。The Economist Intelligence released a report last week, based on research conducted with the IMF and the International Labour Organization, in which it estimated China’s real unemployment rate in 2014 was actually 6.3 per cent.经济学人信息部(EIU)根据其与国际货币基金组织(IMF)和国际劳工组织(ILO)联合进行的研究,上周发表了一份报告。报告估计,中国2014年的实际失业率达到6.3%。That was higher than both the UK, which the EIU estimated had an unemployment rate last year of 6 per cent, and the US, at 6.2 per cent.这比英国和美国都更高。EIU估计,去年英国失业率为6%,美国为6.2%。The picture is complicated further by the 274m rural migrant workers who power China’s economy but are almost entirely ignored by unemployment statistics.若考虑到为中国经济发展立下汗马功劳、但几乎完全被失业统计忽略的2.74亿农民工,情况就更加复杂了。When most migrant workers lose their jobs they return to their homes in the countryside.多数农民工在失去工作后,都会回到自己在农村的家。Since these people can generally grow enough food to survive, this serves as a safety net in the case of mass unemployment of the kind China saw in late 2008 and early 2009.这些人一般都能生产足够的食物维生,对于中国在2008年末2009年初出现的那种大规模失业,这形成了某种安全网。On the other hand, these people are severely underemployed and returning to the farms often pushes them back into abject poverty.在另一方面,这些人严重就业不足,而且回到农村往往使他们再度陷入赤贫。China’s slowdown is expected to continue this year, with problems particularly concentrated in the real estate construction, manufacturing and heavy industrial sectors, all of which are suffering from chronic overcapacity.中国经济放缓预计将在今年持续下去,问题特别集中在房地产建筑业、制造业和重工业,这些产业都存在长期产能过剩。“As the property downturn persists and further weighs on growth in 2015, employment will likely come under pressure,” says Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS. “We expect job losses to be less severe in scale, though more protracted in length, relative to 2008-2009.”“由于房地产持续低迷,进一步拖累2015年增长,就业将很可能承受压力,”瑞银(UBS)中国首席经济学家汪涛表示。“相对于2008-2009年,我们预计这一次的裁员在规模上不那么严重,但会持续更久。”For now, China’s leaders appear relatively sanguine about the potential for massive lay-offs and accompanying social unrest.就目前而言,中国领导人似乎对大规模裁员和与之相伴的社会动荡的可能性比较乐观。But if the government’s own internal unemployment figures are not accurate then the risks of miscalculation amid the slowdown only increase.但是,如果政府自身的内部失业数字是不准确的,那么在经济增长放缓期间,误判的风险只会增加。 /201501/355992

The digital revolution will ultimately strengthen journalism, but so far public relations has managed the web far better.数字革命最终会加强新闻业,但目前为止更擅长经营web的是公共关系行业。In the century in which PR has been an organised trade, the case for its importance in business has been the establishment of reputation. Now, the speed and ubiquity of digital communications both makes reputation more fragile — they can make a chief executive history with a tweet — and allows corporations and their leaders to develop their own channels, direct to consumers, without the intermediation of pesky reporters.一个世纪以来,公关一直是个有组织的行当,其在商界的重要性在于建立声誉。如今,数字通信的快速和无所不在既令声誉更加脆弱(发条推文就能让一位首席执行官成为历史),也让企业及其领导人开辟直接面向消费者的传播渠道,跳过记者这一恼人的中间环节。The power balance has shifted. “Brand journalism”, produced by corporations and institutions and beamed direct to audiences through social media, is on the rise.实力平衡发生了转变。由企业和机构制作,通过社交媒体直接发送给受众的“品牌导向型新闻”正在兴起。Public relations people, often former journalists, now supply much more copy to cash-strapped, slimmed down newspapers. “Native advertising”, designed to look and like the publication into which it is inserted (with a discreet notice that it is sponsored), is a growing trend: papers are now taking on teams of writers to craft the copy the advertisers want in their outlet’s style.公关人员往往从事过记者这行,如今他们向资金拮据、瘦身后的报纸输送的新闻稿比以往多得多。“原生广告”成为一种日益盛行的趋势,这种广告的版面设计和内容跟所要插入的出版物风格一致(只是在不显眼的地方声明其为赞助内容)。报纸现在聘用写作团队,根据各自的风格为广告商精心打造文稿。Business leaders, especially the more visible ones, are being groomed to join “the conversation” — a 24-hour digital commons where corporate and institutional voices must be heard and seen — without the intercession of a journalist.商界领袖,尤其是那些露面较多的领导者正接受专业培训,以便参加没有记者干扰的“对话”——一个24小时的数字公地,企业和机构的声音必须被听到、看到。Some, such as Paul Polman, chief executive of Unilever, are public figures on issues (the environment in his case) beyond his corporation. In political communication as in corporate PR, the use of big data banks allow the identification of issues, concerns, habits and intentions right down to an individual level. Campaigns are increasingly run through social media, in which leaders as diverse as Barack Obama (re-elected in 2012) and India’s Narendra Modi (elected in 2014) built and retained an apparently “personal” connection with their voter base.有些企业领导,比如联合利华首席执行官保罗#8226;波尔曼(Paul Polman),已成为某些议题上的公众人物(波尔曼关注的是环境问题),其影响超出自己的公司。搞政治传播与经营企业公关一样,利用大数据库可以识别议题、关切、习惯和意向,一直细化到个体层面。竞选活动对社交媒体的运用越来越多,各国领导人都在与自己的基础选民建立并保持貌似“个人”的联系,包括2012年获得连任的巴拉克#8226;奥巴马(Barack Obama),以及2014年当选的印度总理纳伦德拉#8226;莫迪(Narendra Modi)。 /201503/363508The world faces an unprecedented challenge: to change the high-carbon energy DNA of the global economy in the next three decades to low carbon. This requires directed technological change on a historic scale.世界面临史无前例的挑战:在未来30年将全球经济的能源DNA从高碳转变为低碳。这需要一种历史性的有控技术革新。It could well fail, and with failure will come a planet wrecked by climate change. At Tuesday’s UN climate summit, nations began the negotiations to last through 2015 that are our last chance to change course.这一变革很可能失败,如果失败的话,气候变化将给地球带来巨大的破坏。在上周二的联合国(UN)气候峰会上,各国开始了将持续至2015年的谈判,这是我们做出改变的最后机会。The reasons we need to change course on the economy, energy and environment are diverse and interconnected. They include persistence of extreme poverty and rising inequality; human-induced climate change; the destruction of biodiversity; and, most generally, the many challenges of a large and growing world economy and population that press far too hard on the earth’s fragile ecosystems and resources.我们需要在经济、能源和环境方面做出改变,改变的理由是多样化的、彼此关联的。这些理由包括:难以根除的极度贫困,日益加重的不平等;人为导致的气候变化;生物多样性遭到破坏;而最主要的理由是,庞大并日益增长的世界经济和人口带来了许多挑战,这对地球脆弱的生态系统和资源造成了极大的压力。The question is not the need for change but how to achieve it. The challenges of global-scale social and economic change are profound, not least high levels of inertia visible in the world’s economic and technological systems – industry, energy, transport, production, trade and investment.问题不在于是否有必要改变,而是如何做出改变。要在全球范围内从社会和经济方面做出改变,挑战是艰巨的,尤其是全球经济和技术体系——工业、能源、交通、生产、贸易和投资——存在显而易见的巨大惰性。The inertia of the global economy results from several powerful factors: long-term infrastructure, vested interests (perhaps no lobby is more powerful than Big Oil), geopolitical competition, short-termism and massive technological uncertainties and challenges. The world needs to chart a new low-carbon energy trajectory, but what will it be? Of course, different countries will make different choices and should be supported to do so.全球经济的惰性源于多个强有力的因素:长期基础设施建设、既得利益者(或许没有比大型石油公司更强大的游说集团了)、地缘政治竞争、短期主义和巨大的技术不确定性和挑战。世界需要绘制新的低碳能源轨迹,但这种轨迹是什么样子?当然,不同的国家将会做出不同的选择,而且我们也应该持他们的选择。For the politicians, the issue of climate change is deeply unpleasant. It is filled with uncertainty and technical complexity; it involves time horizons far beyond election cycles; it requires patient long-term investments; and it requires new public-private institutions that are no joy to design and implement over the din of lobbyists. And these issues involve counterintuitive choices, such as stranding fossil fuel reserves that have been discovered but cannot safely be burned because of the need to limit carbon emissions.对政客们来说,气候变化问题令人头疼。它充斥着不确定性,技术上也非常复杂;它的时间跨度远远长过选举周期;它需要耐心的长期投资;而且它需要建立新型的公私合作机制——在游说者的吵吵嚷嚷中,这种机制是很难成功设计和实施的。这些问题还涉及一些违反直觉的选择,比如停止开采已被发现、但由于需要限制碳排放而无法安全燃烧的化石燃料储藏。These considerations have so far caused 22 years of inaction since the signing of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. So how to move forward? Here’s my take. First, we should hold on for dear life to the globally agreed commitment to keep the rise in mean temperature below 2C. This is not meant to be a target, mind you; it is meant to be an upper limit. By all accounts, right now we are on a 4C-6C trajectory instead.基于上述问题,世界在自签署《联合国气候变化框架公约》(UNFCCC)以来的22年间无所作为。那么应该如何推进进展?我的建议有如下几点。首先,我们应该坚持全球达成一致的承诺,让平均气温升幅低于2摄氏度。提醒人们注意的是,这并不是目标,而是上限。人人都说,我们现在实际上已经处于气温上升4至6摄氏度的轨迹当中。Second, each of the countries that is a big emitter (and many other high-income and smaller middle-income countries) should agree to design – and present to the world – a country-specific pathway to deep decarbonisation by 2050 that is consistent with the 2C limit. Such deep decarbonisation pathways would provide country-level scenarios of how each of the world’s leading economies proposes to cut emissions to 1-1.5 tons a head by 2050, implying a reduction of about 90 per cent in the US, and about 80 per cent in China and Europe.其次,每个温室气体排放大国(以及其他许多高收入国家和规模较小的中等收入国家),都应该同意设计(并向世界展示)本国到2050年深度脱碳的路径规划,该规划要与气温升幅不超过2摄氏度的上限相符。此类深度脱碳规划应让我们从国家层面上看到,所有全球主要经济体计划如何到2050年将人均排放削减到1-1.5吨——这意味着美国减排约90%,中国和欧洲减排约80%。Third, the world’s governments and leading businesses (especially in energy, transport, industry and construction) need to undertake a massive and co-operative programme of research, development, demonstration and diffusion of low-carbon technologies. A clear, predictable carbon tax would help those technologies by giving a market-based incentive to shift from carbon; but carbon pricing is not enough to generate the rapid development and uptake of new technologies, or the network infrastructure to deploy them.第三,世界各国政府和大型企业(尤其是在能源、交通、工业和建筑领域)需要大规模地开展合作项目,对低碳技术进行研发、论和传播。明确而可预测的碳税将对放弃高碳提供市场激励,从而有助于这些技术的发展,但现在的碳价还不足以让新技术迅速发展和实施,也不足以促进用于实施这些技术的网络基础设施的发展。Such public-private partnerships in low-carbon technologies are not a new type of co-operation. They are familiar from the military sector, informatics, computing, space science, genomics and physics (as in the government-backed hunt for the Higgs boson). Several leading economies are indeed very good at directed technological change. But when it comes to low-carbon energy, we just haven’t really tried.低碳技术上的此类公私合作并非新的合作模式。它们常见于军事部门、信息学、计算科学、空间科学、基因组学和物理学领域——寻找希格斯玻色子(Higgs boson)的政府持项目就是这样。多个主要经济体实际上非常擅长于有针对性的技术变革。但就低碳能源来说,我们甚至没有真正尝试过。There is a narrow path up to climate safety. It involves holding on to a clear goal, in this case the 2C limit. It involves finding practical pathways to success for each of the big emitting countries. And it requires a well-funded, generation-long effort to develop the low-carbon technologies that we will need.通往气候安全的道路狭窄。它包括坚持明确的目标,也就是2摄氏度的升温上限。它还包括为每个排放大国成功减排找到切实可行的道路。它需要资金充裕、长达一代人之久的努力来开发我们需要的低碳技术。As the politicians met at the UN this week, they had not yet decided on such a bold, co-operative, generation-long effort. Yet our survival depends on it. Tuesday’s gathering will have mattered if its pushes political and business leaders in the direction of survival. We can save our planet and ourselves if we decide to do it. With crucial negotiations ahead in 2015, next year will be the year of decision.当政客们上周在联合国会晤之际,他们还没有就如此大胆、需要一代人之久的合作努力做出决定。然而,这关系到我们的生死存亡。如果上周二的峰会把政界和商界领导人推向为人类存活而努力的方向,那么峰会将是具有重要意义的。如果我们决定这么做,就可以挽救我们的星球和我们自己。2015年将举行关键的谈判,那将是决定性的一年。 /201410/332609

Hong Kong#39;s Disney theme park is set to post its second profitable year since opening in 2005, people with direct knowledge of the data said Monday, with attendance hitting a record of over 7.5 million people thanks to strong demand from mainland Chinese visitors.据消息人士透露,香港迪士尼乐园(Hong Kong Disneyland)自2005年开园以来,将迎来第二个盈利的年头。由于中国大陆游客纷纷到访,迪士尼乐园接待游客数量创出新高,超过750万人次。Hong Kong Disneyland, which is -owned by the city#39;s government, while Walt Disney Co. owns the rest, will announce financial results for the fiscal year ended September 2013 later Monday.香港迪士尼乐园将于周一晚些时候公布截至2013年9月这一财年的业绩。香港政府持有该主题公园52%的股份,其余为华特-迪士尼公司(Walt Disney Co., DIS)持有。The park reported its first-ever annual profit in fiscal 2012, totaling US.06 million, while attendance rose 13% to 6.7 million visitors. Tourists from mainland China and Southeast Asia are helping drive the continued growth in visitor numbers, park executives said earlier.香港迪士尼乐园在2012财年首次实现年度盈利,净利润总额1,406万美元,期间接待游客数量增加13%,至670万人次。该主题公园的管理人士早些时候称,中国大陆和东南亚游客推动到访游客数量持续增长。Hong Kong Disneyland had previously been unprofitable, partly because early attendance was lower than expected. Critics have cited its size and a lack of attractions that appeal to Chinese visitors. Hong Kong Disneyland remains the smallest of all Disney theme parks world-wide.香港迪士尼乐园在此之前一直未实现盈利,部分原因是最初的到访游客数量低于预期。批评者认为该主题公园规模小,缺乏吸引中国大陆游客的亮点。香港迪士尼乐园仍是全球面积最小的迪士尼主题公园。To boost attendance, the park was expanded from 2009 to add major attractions, with the last of those additions having opened last year.?了吸引游客,该公园从2009年开始扩建,增加大型游乐景观设施。去年最后一批新景观已经开始迎客。But competition from Shanghai Disneyland, scheduled to open by the end of 2015, could undermine attendance at Hong Kong#39;s compact park. Hong Kong Disneyland has said that the park#39;s investors are discussing plans to build new hotels at the resort in hopes of drawing more international tourists.但2015年底,上海迪士尼主题公园(Shanghai Disneyland)将开业,届时这一竞争将令香港迪士尼游客减少。香港迪士尼的投资者正讨论在度假村建设新酒店,以便吸引更多国际游客。As the opening of Shanghai#39;s park looms, Disney in October unveiled plans to build an Iron Man attraction, the first-ever for a Marvel-based character at a Disney park. The Iron Man attraction will open in 2016, one year after the launch of Shanghai Disneyland.随着上海迪士尼开园的临近,香港迪士尼去年10月份推出了建设“铁甲奇侠”(Iron Man, 又称:钢铁侠)游乐设施的计划,这将是钢铁侠人物首次出现在迪士尼主题公园里。“铁甲奇侠”游乐区将于2016年开业,比上海迪士尼开业的时间晚一年。Unlike many of Disney#39;s other stars, Iron Man has become a hit in China following the success of its movie franchise, and an attraction based on the character of Tony Stark has the potential to be a huge draw for Chinese tourists.与许多迪士尼的其他明星不同,电影《钢铁侠》在中国获得成功后,钢铁侠在中国大热。根据史塔克(Tony Stark)人物原型建造的区对中国大陆游客具有潜在的巨大吸引力。 /201402/276468The northern Chinese city that has pinned its hopes on the solar power industry tops China’s “most-polluted” list.对太阳能发电产业寄予厚望的华北城市,在中国“污染最严重城市”榜单上位居首位。Baoding, home to Yingli Solar, the world’s second-largest solar panel maker, was the most polluted among the 74 cities on an environment ministry list published on Monday.全球第二大太阳能电池板制造商英利集团(Yingli Solar)总部所在的保定,在中国环保部周一发表的74个城市空气质量状况报告中,被列为空气污染最严重的城市。Six others in the top 10 are in Hebei, the industrialised province that rings Beijing, where the government is struggling to cut the smog that envelops the capital routinely.除保定外,空气污染最严重的前10位城市中,还有6个来自于环绕北京的河北省。北京市政府正竭力驱散经常笼罩中国首都的雾霾。In 2010, Baoding, 150km southwest of Beijing, was designated a low-carbon pilot, targeting urban growth without reliance on coal-fuelled heavy industry. Its roads are lined with solar-powered street lights, reflecting the importance to the local economy of the panel manufacturing industry.2010年,地处北京西南方向150公里外的保定,被指定开展低碳试点项目,力求做到在不依赖需要燃煤的重工业的情况下推进城市发展。该市的路灯是太阳能供电的,反映出太阳能电池板制造业对当地经济的重要性。Overall, 90 per cent of the cities surveyed fell short of pollution targets, the ministry said. Eight managed to do so, an improvement on last year, when three hit the targets.中国环保部表示,总体而言,被调查的城市有90%空气质量不达标。8个城市达标,比上一年度只有3个城市达标的“成绩”好一些。The smog that blankets Chinese cities is becoming a source of public discontent, and the government has announced a series of targets and policies to reduce industrial and vehicle pollution in the most populous and prosperous centres. But orders to curb heavy industry are countered by strong government support for companies that are often the biggest local taxpayers and employers.覆盖中国城市的雾霾正成为公众不满情绪的源头之一,政府已宣布了一系列目标和政策,力求在最繁荣、人口最多的中心城市减少工业和机动车污染。但是,遏制重工业的指令,在一定程度上被政府对此类企业(它们往往是当地最大的纳税人和雇主)的大力扶持所抵消。Average levels of PM2.5, or fine particulate matter, stood at 93 micrograms per cubic metre last year in the region covering Hebei and Beijing, the ministry said. That level is “good” in the Chinese air quality grading system, although it is well above the national target of 35 micrograms. The US Environmental Protection Agency target is an annual average of 15 micrograms, with the level in any 24 hours averaging no more than 35 micrograms.中国环保部称,京津冀区域去年PM2.5(即细颗粒物)年均浓度为每立方米93微克。按照中国的空气质量分级制度,这一水平属于“良好”,尽管它远高于35微克的国家指标。美国环保局(EPA)的指标是年均15微克,而且在任一24小时期间的平均浓度均不超过35微克。Spurred by the US embassy’s decision to tweet the ings of an air quality monitor on its roof, China now publishes data for most of its largest cities but is sensitive about poor results.在美国驻华大使馆决定通过Twitter发布其楼顶上的空气质量监测器读数的推动下,中国目前发布多数大城市的空气质量数据,但对于糟糕的结果比较敏感。The developers of a popular smartphone app that compares ings from the US embassy with government data were ordered to stop including the embassy figures in the lead-up to November’s Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation meeting. They have not been allowed to resume the comparison.在去年11月北京举行亚太经合组织(APEC)会议前夕,一个比较美国大使馆读数与中国官方数据的热门智能手机应用的开发商,被勒令停止囊括美国大使馆的读数。他们至今没有获准恢复上述比较。Ironically, US embassy ings were often lower than the city’s official ings during the Apec meeting.讽刺的是,在APEC会议期间,美国大使馆的读数常常低于北京市的官方数据。Baoding’s new status is bad news for the think-tanks and secondary government institutions the central government plans to relocate there to reduce congestion and pollution in Beijing.保定的新地位对中国中央政府计划迁至该市的智库和二级政府机构来说是个坏消息。该计划的目的是减轻北京的交通拥堵和污染。 /201502/358208

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