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安庆包皮包茎手术哪个医院好安庆龟头炎怎么缓解ANKARA, Turkey As tensions in the Mideast and Ukraine rose in recent years, Turkey had moved to jointly manufacture a sophisticated missile defense system. 土耳其安卡拉——随着中东和乌克兰紧张局势在近几年升温,土耳其曾着手与人合作建造一个尖端的导弹防御系统。But Turkey abruptly abandoned the plan just weeks ago in the face of strong opposition from its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.但是在遭到北约盟国的强烈反对后,土耳其几周前突然放弃了这项计划。Their main objection: Turkey’s partner, a state-backed Chinese company. Western countries feared a loss of military secrets if Chinese technology were incorporated into Turkey’s air defenses.他们的主要理由是:土耳其的合作伙伴,一家有政府背景的中国企业。西方国家担心,如果土耳其的防空系统采用中国技术,他们的军事机密可能泄露。As one of its highest economic and foreign policy goals, China has laid out an extensive vision for close relations with Turkey and dozens of countries that were loosely connected along the Silk Road more than 1,000 years ago by land and seaborne trade.作为经济和外交政策的最高目标之一,中国规划了一个广泛的愿景,想通过开展陆地和海上贸易,来与土耳其和上千年前“丝绸之路”上的几十个国家建立紧密关系。But Beijing’s effort to revive ancient trade routes, a plan known as the Belt and Road Initiative, is causing geopolitical strains, with countries increasingly worried about becoming too dependent on China.不过,北京试图重启这条古老贸易路线的“一带一路”计划正在制造地缘政治压力,这些国家越来越担心会变得过度依赖中国。Kazakhstan has limited Chinese investment and immigration for fear of being overwhelmed. Kyrgyzstan has pursued warmer relations with Moscow as a balance to Beijing.哈萨克斯坦担心自己难以招架,对中国投资和移民进行了限制。吉尔吉斯斯坦希望增进与俄罗斯的关系,用来平衡北京的影响力。With the missile deal, Turkey was turning toward China partly to reduce its reliance on NATO. “Our national interest and NATO’s may not be the same for some actions,said Ismail Demir, Turkey’s under secretary for national defense.通过该导弹协议,土耳其是在转向中国。这在一定程度上是为了减少对北约的依赖。“在一些行动上,我们的国家利益和北约的利益可能不一致,”土耳其国防部副部长伊斯梅尔·德米Ismail Demir)说。But the deal immediately raised red flags in the West. 但协议立即遭到了西方的反对。Besides the technology issues, the Chinese supplier, the China National Precision Machinery Import and Export Corporation, was the target of Western sanctions for providing ballistic missile technology to Iran, North Korea, Pakistan and Syria. So Turkish exports based on a partnership with China National Precision could have also been subject to sanctions.除了技术问题,因向伊朗、朝鲜、巴基斯坦和叙利亚提供弹道导弹技术,这家名为中国精密机械进出口有限公司的供应商是西方的制裁对象。因此,在和该公司合作的基础上进行的土耳其出口可能也会受到制裁。Complicating matters, China and Russia are close allies on many issues. Russia is especially distrusted here because of its military intervention in Syria and its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine. And Turkey had been a close American ally ever since it sent a large contingent of troops to fight North Korea and China during the Korean War.让情况愈发复杂的是,中国在很多问题上都是俄罗斯的亲密盟友。但在这里,因为入侵叙利亚并从乌克兰夺去了克里米亚,俄罗斯特别不得土耳其的信任。而且自从在朝鲜战争期间派遣一庞大的军队同朝鲜和中国作战之后,土耳其一直是美国的亲密盟友。The Chinese missile project “was one of the things that really made people say ‘Turkey is shifting, wow,’said Mehmet Soylemez, an Asian studies specialist at the Institute for Social and Political Researches, an independent research group in Ankara. “China wants to remake the global financial and economic structure.”涉及中国的导弹项目“确实是一件让人惊呼‘土耳其在转变’的事情”,位于安卡拉的独立研究机构社会政治研究所(Institute for Social and Political Researches)亚洲问题专家穆罕默德·索伊莱梅Mehmet Soylemez)说。“中国想重塑全球金融和经济结构。”With its wealth and markets, China is a tantalizing partner.凭借其财富和市场,中国是一个令人垂涎的合作伙伴。Many countries along the former Silk Road are frustrated by the difficulty of developing closer economic ties to the European Union. And they are alarmed that the American-led Trans-Pacific Partnership, a major regional trade deal, could give an edge to Malaysia and Vietnam.丝绸之路沿途的很多国家,都恼于难以同欧盟发展更紧密的经济往来。而且它们担心,美国主导的大型地区性贸易协议“跨太平洋伙伴关系协定”(Trans Pacific Partnership,简称TPP)可能会让马来西亚和越南占据优势。“So many years, we have been kept waiting at the edge of the E.U., and people are losing hope,said Sahin Saylik, the general manager of Kirpart Otomotiv, a large Turkish auto parts manufacturer. “Turkey is not in the Trans-Pacific Partnership and problems in the Arab world are pushing Turkey to have other alternatives.”“这么多年了,我们一直徘徊在欧盟大门口,大家都快不抱希望了,”沙欣·塞利克(Sahin Saylik) 说。他是土耳其大型汽车配件生产商科派公Kirpart Otomotiv)的总经理。“土耳其没有加入TPP,阿拉伯世界的各种问题又迫使土耳其做出其他选择。”But the relationship with China is lopsided. Turkey imports billion a year worth of goods from China, while exporting only billion there.然而,与中国的关系是一边倒的。土耳其每年从中国进口价50亿美元的商品,而出口却仅有30亿美元。In Turkey, stores are full of Chinese goods, from vacuum cleaners to tableware. Chinese companies have purchased coal and marble mines, as well as a 65 percent stake in Turkey’s third-largest container port. China is helping build nearly a dozen rail lines, and it is aly a military supplier, selling lower-tech battlefield rockets to Turkey.在土耳其,商店里充满了从吸尘器到餐具在内的各种中国商品。中国公司购买了土耳其的多座煤矿和大理石矿,并且拥有土耳其第三大集装箱码头65%的股什?中国在帮助建设十几条铁路,并且已是土耳其的军火供应商,在向其出售技术含量较低的火箭弹。Companies are increasingly turning to China for cost reasons, buying components or importing fully assembled products. Arzum, one of Turkey’s best-known appliance manufacturers, did the engineering and marketing for its popular new Okka single-cup Turkish coffee brewers locally. But the brewers are manufactured in southeastern China.出于成本方面的考虑,越来越多的公司转向中国购买零部件或进口成品。Arzum是土耳其著名的家电生产商,它在本地设计和推广其热销的新款Okka单杯土耳其咖啡机。但是,这些咖啡机是在中国华南地区制造的。“Ten years ago, Turkey didn’t exactly see the threat of China for manufacturing,said T. Murat Kolbasi, Arzum’s chairman. “The threat has to be changed to the opportunity.”“十年前,土耳其并没有看到中国制造业的威胁。”Arzum董事长T·穆拉特·科尔巴T. Murat Kolbasi)说。“威胁必须转变成机遇。”Chinese companies can quickly sever ties as well.中国公司也可能会迅速地断绝关系。The state-controlled China Machinery Engineering Corporation abruptly backed out of a 4.6 million deal to buy a 75 percent stake in the electricity grid of Eskisehir and nearby provinces in Turkey. It happened days after national elections in Turkey last June cast uncertainty on the future of the industry’s regulations.国有企业中国机械设备工程股份有限公司突然退出了一8.46亿美元的交易,不再购买土耳其埃斯基谢希尔及周边几个省份电5%的股什?土耳其今年6月的全国选举对电力行业未来的监管带来了不确定性,而退出一事就发生在选举之后几天之内。China Machinery provided no official reason to Turkish Electricity for canceling the deal. The Chinese company declined to comment.这家中国公司没有向土耳其电力(Turkish Electricity)提供取消交易的官方原因,并拒绝就此事置评。The Turkish Electricity Distribution Company, a nationwide grid company, is suing the Chinese company in an effort to collect a breakup fee. Mukremin Cepni, chief executive of Turkish Electricity, said that he had worked 18 months on the Eskisehir deal and was unenthusiastic about any more tie-ups with China.全国性的电网企业“土耳其配电公司Turkish Electricity Distribution Company)正起诉这家中国公司,以期获得违约赔偿。土耳其电力公司首席执行官穆克雷米·塞帕尼(Mukremin Cepni)表示,他为埃斯基谢希尔的项目工作8个月,如今对与中国的合作不再抱有热情。“I won’t think well of them, because personally I struggled a lot, and their going away without giving any reason exhausted us,said Mr. Cepni.“我不会对他们有好感,因为我个人投入了很多,他们的不告而别耗尽了我们的热情,”塞帕尼说。Ethnic issues have further complicated China’s relations. Many countries in the region are Muslim, and versions of Turkish are spoken in more than a dozen countries, partly a legacy of the Ottoman Empire.民族问题使得与中国的关系进一步复杂化。该地区的许多国家信奉伊斯兰教,有十几个国家说不同版本的土耳其语言,有一部分是因为受到当年奥斯曼帝国的影响。That history has fanned regional tensions over Beijing’s stringent policies toward the Uighurs, Muslims in China’s Xinjiang Province who speak a Turkic language. Beijing has blamed Uighurs for a series of attacks on Han Chinese from eastern China.在这种历史背景下,北京当局对新疆说突厥语族语言的维吾尔穆斯林执行的严苛政策加剧了该地区的紧张局势。北京谴责维吾尔人对中国腹地的汉人进行了一系列攻击。When China suppressed Uighur protests in , Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish prime minister at the time, condemned the actions as “a kind of genocide.Last July, Turks and Uighurs held two rounds of protests in Istanbul and Ankara.年中国镇压维吾尔人的抗议活动时,当时任土耳其总理的雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多Recep Tayyip Erdogan)谴责了这些行动,称之为“一种种族灭绝”。今月,土耳其人和维吾尔人在伊斯坦布尔和安卡拉进行了两轮抗议活动。Now the president of Turkey, Mr. Erdogan is prioritizing ties with China. He calmed the anti-Chinese protests last summer by urging his countrymen to be wary of rumors on social media about China’s treatment of the Uighurs.而现在,作为土耳其总统的埃尔多安却将与中国的关系视作重中之重。他平息了今夏的反华抗议,呼吁国人警惕社交媒体上有关中国如何对待维吾尔人的传闻。Nationalistic Turkish groups like Anatolia Youth, previously outspoken about the Uighurs, have responded by softening their stance toward China. Mahmut Temelli, the chairman of Anatolia Youth’s foreign relations council, said that he believed that on missiles, “the bid should have remained with China.”之前曾力挺维吾尔人的一些土耳其民族主义团体,比如安纳托利亚青年A北约lia Youth),做出了响应,软化了对中国的立场。该团体的外交关系委员会主席马哈茂德 泰梅尔利(Mahmut Temelli)表示,他认为,在导弹问题上,“应该保持与中国的合作。”The missiles became an international issue two years ago, when Turkey’s defense ministry announced it favored a Chinese bid. It beat out an American offer to sell fully built Patriot missiles, as well as similar deals with Western Europe and Russia.两年前,导弹一事成为了国际议题,当时土耳其国防部宣布倾向于接受中国的投标。这击败了来自美国的出售成套爱国者导弹的投标,以及西欧和俄罗斯的类似提议。Turkey wanted to churn out missiles, potentially for export in a few years, and to stop relying on NATO’s occasional deployments of Patriots. “You cannot protect a 911-kilometer border just with Patriots,said Merve Seren, a security specialist at the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a pro-government public policy group in Ankara.土耳其希望大量生产导弹,也许几年后还能出口,不再依赖北约偶尔部署的爱国者。“只用爱国者导弹保卫不11公里的边界线,”梅尔韦·塞伦(Merve Seren)说。他是安卡拉一家亲政府的公共政策团体“政治、经济与社会研究基金会Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research)的安全专家。And F-16 fighters, like the two that shot down the Russian warplane, cannot be on patrol continuously, Mr. Demir, the defense undersecretary, said. Missile systems can be y around the clock.土耳其国防部副部长德米尔认为,F-16战斗机——像击落俄罗斯战机的那两架——无法连续巡逻,而导弹系统可以全天待呀?As the Syrian conflict worsened, NATO’s limited supply of Patriot missiles meant that it sent only enough to protect three Turkish cities. NATO had begun to withdraw them when the Russian warplane was shot down.随着叙利亚冲突的恶化,北约有限的爱国者导弹供应意味着,这些部署的导弹仅够保护三座土耳其城市。而且,在俄罗斯战机被击落后,北约还开始撤回这些导弹“NATO’s deployment of air defense systems is on and off,Mr. Demir said, just hours after the the episode with the Russian warplane, s of which played on the television in the background. “I don’t know if it if gives a message that your partners can rely on.”“北约的防空系统部署变化无常,”德米尔说,仅在土耳其与俄罗斯战机事件之后的几个小时,视频在电视上播放,充当背景。“我不知道它是否在给出伙伴可以依靠的讯息。”But Turkey had a huge blind spot with the missile project.不过,土耳其的导弹计划中有一个巨大的盲点。Turkish military analysts compared on a long list of variables, like missile range and the willingness to share technology and manufacturing. The analysis was approved by a committee including the defense minister, generals and Mr. Erdogan, Mr. Demir said.土耳其的军事分析师比较了一系列变量,如导弹射程以及分享技术和合作制造的意愿等。德米尔称,该分析报告获得了由国防部长、军队将领和总统本人组成的一个委员会的批准。But nobody consulted the foreign ministry on how Turkey’s allies would react, partly because NATO had aly tolerated Greece’s acquisition of Russian air defense missiles from Cyprus. “They were informed after the process was completed,Mr. Demir said. “It was not treated as a special project that will have a lot of political results.”但是,没有人向外交部咨询土耳其的盟友会有什么反应,其中部分原因是,北约容忍了希腊通过塞浦路斯购买俄罗斯的防空导弹。德米尔说,“他们在事情完成后才得到通知。此事并没有被当成会有诸多政治后果的特殊计划。”Within days of the announcement about China’s leading bid, NATO organized a campaign to overturn the decision. President Obama, Western European heads of state and top NATO commanders contacted Turkish leaders.在宣布中国在竞标中领先后,几天之内,北约便组织了意在推翻该决定的行动。美国总统奥巴马、西欧各国领导人以及北约的主要指挥官轮番与土耳其领导人接触。NATO officials have been cautious, saying any country has a right to choose its own equipment. But they have publicly expressed concern that Chinese missiles might not be compatible with NATO equipment and privately that they were loath to share technical details to make compatibility possible.北约官员一直出言谨慎,声称任何国家都有权选择自己的装备。但是,在公开场合,他们表示担心中国的导弹可能与北约的装备不兼容——而在私下里,他们也不愿分享技术细节以实现这种兼容。Last month, Turkey opted to go ahead on its own. It will probably subcontract some components to foreign manufacturers, possibly China National Precision.上月,土耳其选择了自行完成部署计划。它很可能会将一些零部件转包给海外生产商,其中或许就包括中国精密机械进出口有限公司。An engraved metal plate from China National Precision in a polished rosewood box still sat on a shelf outside Mr. Demir’s office the morning the Russian warplane was shot down. Hours of negotiating with Chinese arms makers has forged a relationship that will make future military cooperation easier, Mr. Demir said.在俄罗斯战机被击落的那个上午,在德米尔办公室外面的书架上,放着一块雕刻的金属板。这块装在精美的黄檀木盒中的金属板就来自这家中国精密机械公司。德米尔表示,经过与中国军火商无数个小时的谈判,双方缔结的关系将使今后的军事合作变得更加方便。“There is a value,he said, “in the time we have spent with these companies.”“我们花时间与这些公司交涉是有价值的,”他说。来 /201512/419096安庆市宜城医院男科专家 安庆男科健康如何检查

安庆市立医院阳痿早泄价格BAMAKO, Mali The cash filled three suitcases: 5 million euros.马里巴马科——三个手提箱里装满了500万欧元。The German official charged with delivering this cargo arrived here aboard a nearly empty military plane and was whisked away to a secret meeting with the president of Mali, who had offered Europe a face-saving solution to a vexing problem.负责送钱的德国官员乘坐空荡荡的军机抵达巴马科,然后匆匆奔赴与马里总统的秘密会议。在这个棘手问题上,马里总统为欧洲提供了一个保全颜面的解决方法。Officially, Germany had budgeted the money as humanitarian aid for the poor, landlocked nation of Mali.表面上,德国打算将这笔钱划归为人道主义援助,帮助内陆国家马里的穷人。瑞典人伊克勒保留的2003年遭绑架54天期间的物品。他在德国生活,在阿尔及利亚进行探险之旅时被圣战分子绑架。Gordon Welters for The New York Times瑞典人伊克勒保留003年遭绑架54天期间的物品。他在德国生活,在阿尔及利亚进行探险之旅时被圣战分子绑架。In truth, all sides understood that the cash was bound for an obscure group of Islamic extremists who were holding 32 European hostages, according to six senior diplomats directly involved in the exchange.事实上,据六名直接参与交换人质的高级外交官透露,各方都知道这些钱是给一个鲜为人知的伊斯兰极端组织的。他们控制着32名欧洲人质。The suitcases were loaded onto pickup trucks and driven hundreds of miles north into the Sahara, where the bearded fighters, who would soon become an official arm of Al Qaeda, counted the money on a blanket thrown on the sand. The 2003 episode was a learning experience for both sides. Eleven years later, the handoff in Bamako has become a well-rehearsed ritual, one of dozens of such transactions repeated all over the world.小货车运载着三个手提箱,向北行驶数百英里到撒哈拉沙漠。一群蓄着胡须的武装分子将毯子扔到沙地上,并在上面数钱。不久之后,他们就成了基地组Al Qaeda)的正式分003年的事件对于双方来说都是一次学习的经历1年后,巴马科的这种交换活动已经成了一种轻车熟路的仪式,是世界范围内上演的几十桩类似交易中的一个。Kidnapping Europeans for ransom has become a global business for Al Qaeda, bankrolling its operations across the globe.为了获得赎金绑架欧洲人已经成为基地组织的一项全球业务,为其在世界各地的行动提供资金。While European governments deny paying ransoms, an investigation by The New York Times found that Al Qaeda and its direct affiliates have taken in at least 5 million in revenue from kidnappings since 2008, of which million was paid just in the past year.虽然欧洲国家的政府否认付赎金,但《纽约时报》的调查发现,自2008年起,基地组织及其直属分机构通过绑架至少获得.25亿美元(约合7.7亿元人民币)的收入,其中单是去年就有6600万美元进账。In various news releases and statements, the ed States Treasury Department has cited ransom amounts that, taken together, put the total at around 5 million over the same period.将各种新闻稿和声明中美国财政部援引的数据合起来,这一时期的赎金总额约为1.65亿美元。These payments were made almost exclusively by European governments, who funnel the money through a network of proxies, sometimes masking it as development aid, according to interviews conducted for this article with former hostages, negotiators, diplomats and government officials in 10 countries in Europe, Africa and the Middle East. The inner workings of the kidnapping business were also revealed in thousands of pages of internal Qaeda documents found by this reporter while on assignment for The Associated Press in northern Mali last year.我们采访了来自欧洲、非洲和中东地区10个国家的前人质、谈判者、外交官及政府官员。据他们透露,这些赎金几乎都是由欧洲国家的政府通过代理人网络付的,有时会以发展援助款项的名义进行掩饰。去年在马里北部为美联社(The Associated Press)工作时,记者找到了基地组织的内部相关文件。数千页的资料披露了绑架活动的内部运作情况。In its early years Al Qaeda received most of its money from deep-pocketed donors, but counterterrorism officials now believe the group finances the bulk of its recruitment, training and arms purchases from ransoms paid to free Europeans.基地组织早期接收的大部分资金来自慷慨的捐助者,但是反恐官员现在认为,该组织招募、培训成员及购买武器所需的大部分费用,如今源自释放欧洲人质获得的赎金。Put more bluntly, Europe has become an inadvertent underwriter of Al Qaeda.说白了,欧洲无意中成为了基地组织的资助方。The foreign ministries of France, Switzerland, Austria, Italy and Germany denied in emails or telephone interviews that they had paid the terrorists. “The French authorities have repeatedly stated that France does not pay ransoms,said Vincent Floreani, deputy director of communication for Frances Ministry of Foreign Affairs.法国、瑞士、奥地利、意大利及德国的外交部均在邮件或电话采访中否认曾付钱给恐怖分子。法国外交部负责通讯联络的副主管樊尚·弗洛雷亚(Vincent Floreani)表示,“法国政府一再重申没有缴付赎金。”Several senior diplomats involved in past negotiations have described the decision to ransom their citizens as an agonizing calculation: accede to the terroristsdemand, or allow innocent people to be killed, often in a gruesome, public way?几名曾参与谈判的高级外交官称,以赎金来拯救公民的决定是一个极其痛苦的考量:向恐怖分子屈,或者任由他们杀害无辜民众,而且往往是以恐怖而公开的方式。Yet the fact that Europe and its intermediaries continue to pay has set off a vicious cycle.然而,欧洲及其中间人持续缴纳赎金的做法引发了恶性循环;Kidnapping for ransom has become todays most significant source of terrorist financing,; said David S. Cohen, the Treasury Departments under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, in a 2012 speech. ;Each transaction encourages another transaction.;“通过绑架赚取赎金已经成为恐怖分子时下最主要的经费来源,”美国财政部负责反恐与金融情报的副部长戴维·S·科恩(David S. Cohen)012年发表讲话时说。“每一桩交易都催生了另一桩交易。”And business is booming: While in 2003 the kidnappers received around 0,000 per hostage, now they are netting up to million, money that the second in command of Al Qaedas central leadership recently described as accounting for as much as half of his operating revenue.这项业务正在迅速发展:2003年,绑匪从每名人质身上赚取约20万美元,现在的要价则可高000万美元。基地组织核心领导层的二把手最近表示,赎金收入占了运营进项的一半;Kidnapping hostages is an easy spoil,; wrote Nasser al-Wuhayshi, the leader of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, ;which I may describe as a profitable trade and a precious treasure.;“绑架人质很容易得到奖赏,”阿拉伯半岛基地组织(Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula)的头目纳赛尔·乌海什(Nasser al-Wuhayshi)写道。“我得说这是笔利润可观的生意,也是珍贵的宝藏。”The stream of income generated is so significant that internal documents show that as long as five years ago, Al Qaedas central command in Pakistan was overseeing negotiations for hostages grabbed as far afield as Africa. Moreover, the accounts of survivors held thousands of miles apart show that the three main affiliates of the terrorist group Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, in northern Africa; Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, in Yemen; and the Shabab, in Somalia are coordinating their efforts, and abiding by a common kidnapping protocol.收入源源不断,规模惊人,内部文件显示,早在五年前,基地组织设在巴基斯坦的中央指挥部就在人质的谈判工作上发号施令,涉及的人质最远在非洲遭到绑架。此外,根据关押地相隔数千英里的不同幸存者的描述,该恐怖组织的三大分——位于北非的伊斯兰马格里布基地组Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb)、位于也门的阿拉伯半岛基地组织以及位于索马里的青年党(Shabab)——共同合作,遵守通用的绑架协议。To minimize the risk to their fighters, the terror affiliates have outsourced the seizing of hostages to criminal groups who work on commission. Negotiators take a reported 10 percent of the ransom, creating an incentive on both sides of the Mediterranean to increase the overall payout, according to former hostages and senior counterterrorism officials.为了将武装分子面临的风险降至最低,这几家恐怖主义分机构把绑票的任务外包给犯罪集团,后者抽取佣金。曾被绑架的人士和高级反恐官员透露,谈判者据称会抽取10%的赎金。这样,地中海两边均有动力来增加整体金额。Their business plan includes a step-by-step process for negotiating, starting with long periods of silence aimed at creating panic back home. Hostages are then shown on s begging their government to negotiate.他们的绑架计划包括循序渐进的谈判过程,首先要长时间保持沉默,以便在相关国家引发恐慌,然后公布人质恳求本国政府谈判的录像。来 /201411/343365安徽省安庆泌尿外科 安庆有没性疾病专科医院

太湖县中医院尿科Often likened to being “between a rock and a hard place Central Asia’s relatively isolated position has required it to maintain consistent and balanced good relations with two giant neighbours, China and Russia.中亚的处境常被比作“左右为难”,其相对孤立的地位要求它必须与两大邻国——中国和俄罗斯——保持协调、平衡的良好关系。Nevertheless, its high degree of integration with Russia has jolted the region’s local economies, the result of their twin exposure to the protracted Ukrainian crisis and the slump in commodity prices, manifested through tanking local currencies and reduced inflows of remittances from workers abroad.然而,由于中亚与俄罗斯高度一体化,受旷日持久的乌克兰危机和大宗商品价格暴跌的双重影响,该地区的经济遭受重创,这一点从当地货币糟糕的表现和海外工人汇款流入的减少便可见一斑。Anxiety has further gripped post-Soviet states in recent months, with the recent 35 per cent slump in the Azerbaijan manat and a 34 per cent devaluation in Turkmenistan, often considered the economy with the least direct exposure to Russia. Concerns are sping in Kazakhstan of an additional devaluation of the tenge (following last year’s 20 per cent decline) amid calls for early presidential elections.这些前苏联共和国近几个月来愈发焦虑,阿塞拜疆货币马纳特汇率近期下5%,土库曼斯坦货币贬4%,通常认为这两个国家的经济受俄罗斯的直接影响最小。哈萨克斯坦货币坚戈继去年汇率下0%后进一步贬值,担忧情绪正在其国内蔓延,民众要求提前举行总统大选。Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan arguably face even greater pressure, with both GDP and fiscal revenue highly dependent on remittances from Russia and the transit of Chinese manufactured goods into Russia/Uzbekistan. Neither has a promising outlook; the World Bank currently forecasts remittances to decline 4.9 per cent and 17.8 per cent in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan respectively this year, while Kyrgyz export volumes to Russia slumped 33 per cent year on year last year also partly the result of a concerted crackdown on Kyrgystan’s re-export industries.吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦无疑面临更大的压力,这两国的国内生产总GDP)和财政收入高度依赖来自俄罗斯的汇款,以及中国商品进入俄罗斯或乌兹别克斯坦的过境运输费。两国的前景都不乐观,据世界(World Bank)目前预测,今年吉尔吉斯斯坦的汇款将下.9%,塔吉克斯坦将下7.8%。吉尔吉斯斯坦对俄罗斯的出口量去年同比下3%,部分原因是吉尔吉斯斯坦再出口业受到联合性打击。Uzbekistan, the region’s most densely populated country, has also seen an 11 per cent decline in its som currency over the last year, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects inflation to remain in double digit figures as a result.中亚人口最稠密的乌兹别克斯坦,其货币索姆的汇率在过去一年也出现1%的下跌。据国际货币基金组织(IMF)预计,乌兹别克斯坦的通胀率也将因此保持在两位数。Diversifying remains a challenge多元化仍然是个挑战The twin factors of low oil prices and Russian weakness have further pushed Central Asian states to diversify their economies. Nevertheless, their ability to integrate into global manufacturing supply chains remains hampered by their relative geographical isolation, problematic infrastructure and mostly low population densities.油价低迷和俄罗斯经济走弱这两个因素进一步推动中亚国家实行经济多样化。但它们融入全球制造业供应链的能力,仍受阻于它们相对偏僻的地理位置、成问题的基础设施和普遍的低人口密度。As an example, Japanese companies have not expanded manufacturing facilities into Central Asia as they have rapidly done in Southeast Asia, due to this lack of competitiveness. Accumulated financial exposure to Central Asia and the Caucasus by the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), Japan’s main policy lender, currently amounts to only #165;642bn, barely 3 per cent of its total #165;21,106bn exposure across Asia, and most of this has also gone towards energy-related services.举例来说,日本企业在东南亚迅速扩大了生产设施,但在中亚就没这么做,原因是这里缺乏竞争力。日本的主要政策性——日本国际协力银JBIC)对中亚和高加索地区的金融敞口累积到现在,才仅420亿日元,勉强为其对全亚洲211060亿日元总敞口的3%。而且JBIC在该地区的大部分敞口都投入了能源相关务。Moreover, the declining rouble itself further stymies the potential for local manufacturing, given Russia’s much larger industrial economies of scale. Car dealers in Kazakhstan, for example, have slashed retail prices by an average 30 per cent in recent months to compete with a surge in Russian imports.此外,由于俄罗斯工业的规模经济比中亚大得多,卢布汇率下跌进一步阻碍了当地制造业的发展可胀?比如哈萨克斯坦汽车经销商近几个月将零售价平均削减了30%,以与激增的俄罗斯进口汽车竞争。Separately, private sector development and local innovation are difficult to implement even in the region’s more advanced economies, due both to the dominance of the state sector in most countries and the lack of access to credit and capital markets.再有,即便是中亚发展水平较高的经济体,也难以实现私营部门的发展和地方创新。原因有两个,一是国有部门在中亚大多数国家占主导地位;二是缺乏进入信贷和资本市场的渠道。China’s role in widening the economic base中国在扩大中亚经济基础中的作用Diversification is thus largely dependent on an expected massive surge in Chinese investment into the region which, in theory, should help build local industrial capacity and manufacturing supply chains. On paper at least, China has committed to investing .3bn into multiple infrastructure projects across Central Asia.于是中亚经济的多元化很大程度上依赖于一个预期——中国对该地区投资的大量激增。这些投资在理论上应有助于提高当地工业产能,帮助当地建立制造业供应链。至少在纸面上,中国已承诺向整个中亚的多个基础设施项目投资163亿美元。Central Asian states, particularly Kazakhstan, have also embraced the idea of acting as “transit hubsfor manufactured goods between China and Europe. Kazakhstan’s vice president is known to favour Chinese investment and the Astana headquarters of Kazakhstan Temir Zholy, the state-owned railway firm, beams televised pictures of the China-Kazakhstan partnership in the sector onto the streets.中亚国家,特别是哈萨克斯坦,也接受了充当中欧之间商品“转运枢纽”的理念。众所周知,哈萨克斯坦副总理欢迎中国投资,该国国有铁路公司Kazakhstan Temir Zholy位于阿斯塔纳的总部还将中哈在该领域结成合作伙伴关系的电视画面播放到街头。In addition to collecting transit fees on transported goods, this is also expected to result in some manufacturing spillover. A recent Kazakhstan-China investment forum resulted in agreements to establish 20 JV manufacturing projects in sectors such as construction, transport, logistics, and food production.作为转运枢纽,中亚除了可以对转运商品收取过境费,或许还有望享受到中国制造业的溢出。在最近举行的哈中投资论坛的促成下,两国在建筑、交通、物流和粮食生产等领域达成了20个合资制造业项目的协议。Less-developed economies such as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which also face greater domestic political uncertainty, are seeking Chinese investment into infrastructure. One major flagship project is a mooted Kyrgyz-China rail project, although this faces both political risks in Kyrgzstan’s democratic environment, as well a clampdown on Kyrgzstan’s re-export trade. The deputy finance minister of Tajikistan, meanwhile, announced that China plans to invest bn into the Tajik economy over the next three years.吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦等欠发达经济体还面临着更大的国内政治不稳定,这些国家正在寻求中国对基础设施的投资。一个主要的旗舰项目是酝酿中吉尔吉斯斯坦-中国铁路项目,尽管该项目除了面临吉尔吉斯斯坦国内民主环境的政治风险,还要面对该国再出口贸易受到打击的风险。与此同时,塔吉克斯坦财政部副部长宣布,中国计划在未来三年向该国投资60亿美元。Turkmenistan also aims to become a regional transit hub in which China has a special investment interest. Kazakhstan in late 2014 inaugurated the first direct railway link connecting Iran with western Kazakhstan via Turkmenistan, to more fully diversify from Russian transit routes to Europe. Positioned as a halfway point, this new route also enables Turkmenistan to act as a gate for traded goods simultaneously between Russia, other post-Soviet states, and southwest Asia.土库曼斯坦也打算成为该地区的交通枢纽,而中国对此拥有特殊的投资兴趣014年底,哈萨克斯坦正式开通了首条经由土库曼斯坦直接连接伊朗与该国西部的铁路,使得交通线路在从俄罗斯到欧洲的线路的基础上,更加多样化。这条新铁路使地处线路中端的土库曼斯坦同时成为俄罗斯以及其他前苏联国家与亚洲西南部国家之间商品贸易的大门。According to Shohrat Kadyrov, a researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Science, Ashgabat is not only a major provider of gas, but also acts as an interlocutor between China and neighbouring states in the negotiation of supranational infrastructure corridors that aim to facilitate economic integration. In this regard, Turkmenistan is using the prospect of retaining its gas market share in China by investing in additional pipelines, which in turns allows it to bargain for infrastructure investments to facilitate the transit of Chinese-produced goods, arguably at Russia and Kazakhstan’s expense.俄罗斯科学院东方研究所(Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Science)研究员肖赫拉#8226;卡德罗夫(Shohrat Kadyrov)认为,土库曼斯坦不仅是天然气的主要供应国,而且还在中国与邻国间关于建设旨在促进经济一体化的跨国基础设施走廊的谈判中,扮演中间对话者的角色。在这方面,土库曼斯坦利用保持其未来在中国天然气市场份额的前景,投资额外的管道建设,并借此争取基础设施投资以便于中国产商品的运输,但这无疑将牺牲俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦的利益。The importance of Russia俄罗斯的重要性Media attention has mostly focused on the surge in aspirant Chinese investment in the region coming “at the expense of Russia with the economic downturn luring Central Asian governments towards China’s trade and investment prowess.媒体关注主要都集中在中国雄心勃勃的投资在本地区的激增(所谓“挖俄罗斯的墙角”),该地区的经济低迷使得中国的贸易和投资能力对中亚各国政府颇具吸引力。Nevertheless, it is also clear that Russia remains a crucial partner and ally not just for Central Asian states themselves, but for ensuring the stability of China’s investments in the region, in particular its energy supplies.然而,同样清楚的是,不仅对中亚各国自身,而且在确保中国对该地区(特别是能源供应领域)投资的稳定性方面,俄罗斯仍是一个至关重要的合作伙伴和盟友。Indeed, despite the recent pain caused by Central Asia’s economic alliance with Russia, countries such as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan appear to be making what amounts to a political decision to join the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), which currently includes Kazakhstan, Belarus and, most recently, Armenia. This comes despite the clear evidence in Kazakhstan’s case that its participation in the EEU has not yielded significant economic benefits, as well as the concomitant exposure to Russian domestic political cycles.事实上,尽管中亚与俄罗斯的经济联盟导致了近期的阵痛,但吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦等国似乎做出了堪称政治决策的决定——加入俄罗斯领导的欧亚经济联Eurasian Economic Union)。该联盟目前包括哈萨克斯坦、白俄罗斯以及最近加入的亚美尼亚。尽管有明确的据表明,哈萨克斯坦的加入并未产生显著的经济效益,而且还会暴露在俄罗斯国内政治周期影响之下,这些国家还是决定加入该联盟。Russia-led structures such as the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), beyond bland gestures of Sino-Russian geopolitical alliance and common interest, are acquiring real significance through the emphasis on maintaining, expanding, and modernising Russia’s network of military bases in countries such as Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Armenia. Russian bases remain strategic for the security of Central Asian governments themselves, since nearly their entire domestic military budgets go to Russia.俄罗斯领导的组织——如集体安全条约组织(CSTO)——超越了中俄地缘政治同盟和共同利益的单调表态,正在通过强调俄罗斯在吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和亚美尼亚的军事基地网络的维护、扩大和现代化,而获得真正的影响力。俄罗斯的军事基地对于中亚各国政府自身的安全仍具有战略意义,因为这些国家几乎所有的军事预算都流向了俄罗斯。In this respect, Sino-Russian co-operation is maintained out of a common interest to keep the Central Asian region stable. Chinese investment is required to buffer stagnant inward foreign direct investment flows into Central Asia from Russia.从这个角度看,中俄合作出于维护中亚地区稳定的共同利益得到维系。中亚地区需要中国的投资以缓冲来自俄罗斯的外国直接投资的停滞。However, Beijing needs Russia to provide security in a politically complex region subject to periodic unrest, as a means to ensure its massive investments into the region’s energy and infrastructure sectors. This is particularly crucial given the security imperatives in China’s own restive Xinjiang province, through which all energy supplies pass.然而,北京方面需要俄罗斯在这个政治形势复杂、受周期性动荡影响的地区提供安全保障,并以此确保中国大规模投资进入该地区的能源和基础设施领域。这种保障尤其关键,特别是考虑到中国在自身桀骜的新疆维吾尔自治区保障安全的必要——所有能源供应都要经过这一地区。This pattern of Sino-Russian cooperation is arguably being replicated elsewhere, such as in the ambitious pending construction of the Nicaragua canal, whereby China will finance the majority and Russia will provide military and other forms of security during the construction process.中俄合作的这种模式无疑正在被复制到其他地方。例如,在雄心勃勃、等待开工的尼加拉瓜运河项目中,中国负责大部分投资,而俄罗斯将在建设过程中提供军事及其他形式的安全保障。While media reports often emphasise the “historical distrustbetween China and Russia, evidenced by long-drawn and sometimes acrimonious negotiations over bilateral gas supply contracts, it is clear that China does not aspire to undermine Russia’s sociopolitical and security influence in the region, while Russia in turn is not resisting China’s economic encroachment into the region. It might be a stretch to call the relationship symbiotic, but it is certainly mutually tolerant.虽然媒体报道经常强调中俄之间“历史上的不信任”,并以两国间旷日持久、时而争吵激烈的天然气供应合同谈判为据,但很明显,中国并不想削弱俄罗斯在中亚社会政治和安全方面的影响力,而俄罗斯反过来也并不抵制中国对该地区的经济渗透。称这种关系为共生关系可能有些牵强,但它们一定相互宽容。Diana Gapak is a Russia/CIS analyst. Daniyar Kosnazarov is a head of Central Asia and Caspian Region department, Geopolitics and Regional Studies Division, The Library of the First President of Kazakhstan. Gavin Bowring is a researcher at Asean Confidential, a research service at the Financial Times.本文作者戴安娜#8226;加帕Diana Gapak)是一位专注于俄罗独联体的分析师。达尼亚#8226;科斯纳扎罗夫(Daniyar Kosnazarov)是哈萨克斯坦第一总统图书The Library of the First President of Kazakhstan)地缘政治和地区研究部(Geopolitics and Regional Studies Division)中亚和里海地区部门负责人。加#8226;鲍令(Gavin Bowring)是英囀?金融时报》旗下研究务机构《东盟投资参考Asean Confidential)研究员。来 /201503/364015 Iranian Foreign Minister Mohamad Javad Zarif waves from a balcony of the Palais Coburg where closed-door nuclear talks were held in Vienna, Austria.闭门核谈判在奥地利维也纳结束后,伊朗外长穆罕默德#8226;贾瓦#8226;扎里Mohamad Javad Zarif)在寇宝宫(Palais Coburg)阳台上挥手致意。Six world powers and Iran have agreed a breakthrough deal to wind back the country’s progress towards building a nuclear bomb in exchange for a sweeping reversal of international economic sanctions, bringing to a close nearly a decade of isolation for the Islamic Republic, according to officials involved in the talks.世界六大国与伊朗达成一项突破性协议,以逆转伊朗建造核弹的进程。与会官员表示,作为回报,国际社会将全面解除对伊朗的经济制裁,结束该国受到的将近10年的孤立。Details of the deal including the crucial timings and scope of sanctions relief for Iran and the range of access international nuclear inspectors will be granted over Iran’s sensitive nuclear sites are expected to be announced later on Tuesday.协议详细内容——包括解除对伊制裁的关键时点和范围、以及国际核查人员将被允许进入伊朗敏感核设施的哪些地方——预计将于周二晚些时候宣布。EU foreign affairs chief Federica Mogherini and Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif will hold a press conference at Vienna’s UN centre in the next couple of hours.几小时后,欧EU)外交事务负责人费代丽#8226;莫盖里尼(Federica Mogherini)和伊朗外长穆罕默#8226;贾瓦#8226;扎里夫将在维也纳的联合国中心召开记者招待会。Capping two years of protracted, difficult negotiations, the deal finally agreed on Tuesday morning in Vienna will put in place hard limits on Tehran’s nuclear activities for the next decade and, within weeks, begin to reconnect the 0bn Iranian economy with the world.周二上午达成的核协议,为两年来拖拖拉拉的艰难谈判画上了句号。该协议将为伊方未来十年的核活动设置严格的限制,并将在数周内开始让规模000亿美元的伊朗经济重新与世界对接。It will be hailed by many as one of the most significant foreign policy success of Barack Obama’s US presidency and decried by others including some of Washington’s closest Middle East allies as one of its most egregious failures.该协议将被许多人誉为巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)在美国总统任期内实现的最重要外交政策成就之一,也会被一些人(包括部分美国最亲密的中东盟友)贬斥为他在此期间的最大失败之一。Tuesday’s deal brings to a close a marathon two-week stretch of discussions between Iran and its interlocutors the US, Russia, France, China, the UK and Germany that have set precedents and broken records.周二达成的协议为伊朗与其谈判对手(美囀?俄罗斯、法囀?中囀?英国和德国)之间长达两周的马拉松谈判画上了句号。这次谈判不但创造了先例,也打破了纪录。Oil prices fell more than 2 per cent as news of the deal broke.协议达成的消息传出后,石油价格下跌了%。Since they began, the talks have involved the highest-level diplomacy seen between Iran and the US since the overthrow of the Shah in 1979 and they have demanded the highest-level of commitment. No secretary of state has dedicated as much time to a single diplomatic objective as John Kerry.这场谈判开始后,伊美两国之间的外交互动级别之高979年伊朗国王被推翻以来从未有过的,两国最高层也根据形势需要做出了一些承诺。没有哪位美国国务卿像约#8226;克里(John Kerry)这样,在某一外交目标上投入了这么多时间。Perhaps most significantly, though, if the agreement holds, it will be the first ever case in which a country subject to chapter seven sanctions by the UN Security Council has exited them through diplomacy, rather than war.但最重要的或许是,如果上述协议成立的话,将是首次有一个联合国安理UN Security Council)依据《联合国宪章》第七章对其制裁的国家,通过外交而非战争摆脱了制裁。Attention will now turn to Washington and Tehran, where hardliners have been set on trying to scupper the talks for months. In the US, Congress will now have two months to scrutinise the agreement and then vote on whether it should be upheld. In Iran, the majlis, the country’s parliament, will also vote on the text, but it does not have a fixed timetable for doing so.现在,人们的注意力将转向华盛顿和德黑兰。数月来,美伊两国的强硬派一直在固执地企图破坏谈判。美国国会现在将有两个月时间仔细审议该协议,然后投票表决是否应该持该协议。伊朗议会也将对协议文本进行投票表决,但何时投票并无固定的时间表。来 /201507/385707安庆治疗精囊炎哪家医院好安庆治疗前列腺疾病哪家医院最好

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