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2019年09月23日 13:35:47来源:光明在线

After an uncharacteristic deceleration in 2012, the world’s largest car market is again growing at a double-digit clip, writes Tom Mitchell in Beijing.在2012年增长罕见放缓之后,中国作为全球第一大汽车市场的增速再次达到了两位数的水平。LMC Automotive, a consultancy, estimates that January to September sales of passenger vehicles in China increased 15 per cent to almost 12m units. That compares with expected growth of less than 8 per cent in the US for 2013, and projected year-on-year declines in Brazil, Russia, India, Germany and Japan.市场研究咨询机构LMC Automotive估计,今年1至9月中国乘用车的销售量增长了15%,达到约1200万辆。而2013年美国市场的增幅预计不足8%,巴西、俄罗斯、印度、德国、日本市场预计将出现同比下降。China’s four richest urban centres seem to be overwhelmed with traffic congestion and related pollution issues.中国最富裕的四大城市——北京、上海、广州和深圳面对严重的交通堵塞以及相关污染问题,似乎无能为力。But Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are just at the point where car ownership traditionally begins to take off – when per capita GDP reaches ,000. According to Synergistics, another automotive consultancy, that figure in China’s “big four” regional car markets now stands at more than ,700.但它们正处在汽车保有量通常将开始快速上升的拐点,即人均国内生产总值(GDP)达到1万美元。另一家汽车行业咨询公司Synergistics指出,中国四大地区性汽车市场的人均GDP现已超过了12700美元。Moreover, manufacturers are turning their attention to the smaller cities where more than 80 per cent of the country’s 1.3bn people live and per capita GDP is only about ,000.另外,汽车制造商们开始将注意力转向中小城市,目前中国13亿人口中超过80%的人在中小城市居住,这些地区的人均GDP仅为约4000美元。,“Congestion and pollution issues might have a negative effect [on growth in China’s largest cities], but [smaller cities] still have a lot of potential,” says Ray Bierzynski, executive vice-president of General Motor’s joint venture with SAIC Motor and Wuling Auto in Guangxi province. “Our expansion has got to be in those areas.”白雷蒙(Ray Bierzynski)是通用汽车(General Motor)与上汽集团(SAIC Motor)和五菱汽车(Wuling Auto)在广西省成立合资企业的执行副总裁。他表示:“交通拥堵和污染问题或对中国一线城市的汽车销售增长带来负面影响,但中小城市仍有很大潜力。我们必须在中小城市谋求增长。”In volume terms, GM is the second most successful multinational car company operating in China. Its various joint ventures with SAIC, First Auto Works and Wuling sold more than 1.1m passenger vehicles over the first three quarters of this year, compared with Volkswagen’s almost 1.9m.按销售量计算,通用汽车在进入中国市场的跨国汽车公司中排行第二。今年前三季度,通用汽车与上汽集团、一汽 (First Auto Works)以及五菱组建的多家合资企业的乘用车销售量超过了110万辆,同期大众汽车(Volkswagen)的销量约为190万辆。Analysts attribute GM’s and VW’s success in China to aggressive localisation of production, research and development – a tactic that automakers at the luxury end of the spectrum are also adopting.分析师将通用汽车与大众汽车在中国取得的成功,归因于积极的本地化生产和研发——这一策略也被豪华汽车生产商所采用。Daimler formally opened an engine plant in Beijing in November – its first outside Germany – that will eventually export components to Europe.今年11月,戴姆勒(Daimler)正式在北京开设了一家引擎生产厂——这是其在德国以外地区设立的首家引擎厂,并且最终将向欧洲出口零部件。Yet China has yet to emerge as a significant automotive exporter as Japan and Korea did before it, especially to the US and Europe. Over the first eight months of this year, China’s vehicle exports fell three per cent over the same period in 2012 to just 500,000 units.但中国尚未像日本和韩国那样,成为举足轻重的汽车出口国,特别是面向美国和欧洲市场的出口。今年前八个月,中国的汽车出口量相对于上年同期下降了3%,仅为50万辆。 /201312/268909。

  • Apple said on Thursday it had received just nine complaints about bent iPhones since it released its newly enlarged smartphones last week, after facing an internet furore over claims that the design of its 6 Plus device was fundamentally flawed.苹果(Apple)周四表示,自从上周发布最新大屏智能手机以来,该公司仅收到9笔涉及iPhone存在弯曲问题的投诉,此前,有关iPhone6 Plus存在根本缺陷的说法在互联网中甚嚣尘上。Its unrepentant response to what pundits have dubbed “bendgate” contrasts with its swift apology for the “great inconvenience” of Wednesday’s botched iPhone software update.苹果对专家们所称的“弯曲门”(bendgate)事件做出了强硬回应,与此形成对照的是,苹果迅速对周三发布的存在问题的iPhone软件更新所导致的“巨大不便”表示了道歉。“With normal use a bend in iPhone is extremely rare and through our first six days of sale a total of nine customers have contacted Apple with a bent iPhone 6 Plus,” Apple said, highlighting the array of “rigorous” physical tests that each device is subjected to before it launched. “iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus meet or exceed all of our high quality standards to endure everyday, real life use,” it said.苹果表示:“在正常使用情况下,iPhone出现弯曲的情况极其罕见,在我们产品发布后的前6天里,共有9名客户因iPhone 6 Plus弯曲问题与苹果联络。”该公司强调所有设备在发售前须经过一系列“严格”物理性能测试。该公司表示:“iPhone 6和iPhone 6 Plus达到或超出了我们所有的高质量标准,经得起日常使用。”The complaints have marred what was by other measures a successful launch for Apple. It said on Monday that it had sold 10m of its two new iPhone 6 devices in their first three days on sale.这些抱怨和投诉让苹果新机的发布失却了往日的成功光环。苹果周一表示,上市头3天,两款最新iPhone 6的销量已达到1000万部。Earlier on Thursday, Apple’s products came in for fresh criticism from a new quarter: the Federal Bureau of Investigation.周四早些时候,苹果产品还遭到另一个领域的批评:美国联邦调查局(FBI)。FBI director James Comey told reporters in Washington DC that he objected to new encryption technology for iPhones and smartphones running Google’s Android software, which the companies say bolsters customers’ security and privacy.美国联邦调查局局长詹姆斯#8226;科米(James Comey)在华盛顿特区告诉记者,他对iPhone及安卓(Android)系统的智能手机采用的最新加密技术表示反对,虽然这些公司称该技术将加强客户安全和隐私。The encryption means that data stored on the latest iPhones, if the owner uses a security passcode to lock the device, cannot be accessed by Apple itself, even if it receives a warrant.这项加密技术意味着,如果最新版iPhone用户使用安全秘钥锁闭手机,那么苹果自己将无法访问这些手机上存储的数据,即便苹果获得授权。“What concerns me about this is companies marketing something expressly to allow people to place themselves beyond the law,” Mr Comey said.科米表示:“我担心,这些企业推向市场的是明显能让人们凌驾于法律之上的产品。”Apple analysts said that the longer-term implications of the latest bout of criticism were hard to assess. Many saw its flawed software update as a more significant problem than whether iPhones can be bent in a trouser pocket.苹果分析师表示,很难判断最近的批评声浪会造成怎样的长期影响。与iPhone能不能在裤兜里被坐弯相比,很多人认为存在缺陷的软件更新是一个更重要的问题。 /201409/332501。
  • WhatsApp famously reached 450m users around the world without spending so much as a dime on marketing. Facebook bought the instant-message service for (ahem) 190bn dimes not long afterward.众所周知,WhatsApp没在市场营销上花一分钱,就将其全球用户规模做到了4.5亿人。此后不久,Facebook就斥资(咳咳)190亿美元收购了这家即时通讯务公司。Old-fashioned valuation is scarily irrelevant in the world of chat apps. The game is conquering a world of millions of smartphone users. Such petty details as actually earning money off these users are left for the distant future by anyone buying Facebook’s stock at 50 times forward earnings.在聊天应用领域,传统估值方法几乎毫无用处。这一领域的竞争目标,在于赢得数以百万计的智能手机用户。至于如何从这些用户身上实实在在挣到钱这种细枝末节的问题,是留给很久以后以50倍预期市盈率的价格购买Facebook股票的投资者的。Still, the bet assumes barriers to entry will exist to protect future earnings in the app market. That seems weird for a business built on flighty electrons. But hope lies with the sheer network effect of lots of users. Zero marketing costs at WhatsApp feeds this hope.不过,投资者眼下仍然押注于一种假定,即市场进入门槛将持续存在,能保护应用市场的未来盈利空间。对于一项建立在更新换代频繁的电子产品基础上的业务而言,这个假定似乎有些奇怪。但投资者但从大量用户带来的网络效应就看到了希望。而WhatsApp市场营销出为零的做法,进一步强化了这种希望。The rise in marketing spend at Tencent should deflate it back a bit. China’s biggest internet company (market capitalisation: 0bn) has plenty of users on its WeChat network, too: 355m, at the end of 2013. WeChat and WhatsApp may each eventually rise to 1bn users, Macquarie reckons. While WeChat has Asia-Pacific presence aly, WhatsApp needs to dial into the region’s nearly 750m smartphones.但腾讯(Tencent)在市场营销方面的出增长,应该会让这种希望略微降温。中国第一大互联网企业(市值1400亿美元)腾讯旗下的微信(WeChat)同样网罗了庞大的用户群:截至2013年底,微信的用户人数已达到3.55亿人。麦格理(Macquarie)认为,微信和WhatsApp各自的用户数量或许最终都将达到10亿人。微信在亚太地区已颇具市场影响力,而WhatsApp则仍需向这一地区近7.5亿的智能手机用户推广自己。But when it comes to WeChat’s expansion elsewhere, the coin has turned – Tencent spent Rmb5.7bn (0m) on sales and marketing last year compared to Rmb3bn a year earlier. It partly goes on WeChat TV ads featuring Bollywood actors in India, Lionel Messi in Europe and (er) WeChat Guy elsewhere. This is not growth by network effect alone.但微信在向亚太以外的其他地区扩张时,情况就反过来了——腾讯去年在销售和市场营销方面花费了57亿元人民币(合9.2亿美元),高于上一年的30亿元人民币。部分出用于在电视上为微信打广告,包括在印度邀请宝莱坞演员主演的广告,在欧洲地区邀请利昂内尔#8226;梅西(Lionel Messi)出演的广告,以及在其他地区推出的WeChat Guy广告。这已不再是单纯依靠网络效应推动的增长。This may not matter if Tencent can monetise growth. Its gross margin remains 55 per cent. Last year’s Rmb15.5bn in net profit shows the opportunity to be had integrating WeChat with Tencent’s workhorse, online gaming.如果腾讯能将增长套现,这或许不会成为一个问题。腾讯的毛利率仍然维持在55%。去年该公司的净利润达到了155亿元人民币,表明将微信与腾讯的在线游戏业务相结合会带来巨大机遇。在线游戏业务是腾讯的盈利主力。But the shares remain priced 40 times forward earnings. They were 12 times at the start of 2012, having risen with the help of a flood of Federal Reserve liquidity since then. Tencent has trailblazed in the era of chat-app land-grabs. What if world conquest gets dearer?但目前腾讯的股票仍然保持着40倍的预期市盈率,这个数字在2012年初仅为12倍,在美联储(Federal Reserve)释放的大量流动性推动下一路走高至今。腾讯是聊天应用攻城略地时代的先驱者。但如果征世界的成本变得更加昂贵了呢? /201403/281250。
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