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2017年12月12日 06:51:36|来源:国际在线|编辑:度咨询
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte on Friday lifted a ceasefire with communist rebels, jeopardising a peace process he launched last year to end a decades-long insurgency.菲律宾总统杜特尔特周五解除了与共产党武装的停火协议,这危及了他去年发起的,旨在结束持续数十年叛乱的和平进程。The move comes two days after the Communist Party of the Philippines announced the end of its own self-declared ceasefire and claims by the military that Maoist fighters had killed six soldiers this week.这个举措发生在菲律宾共产党宣布结束其单方面停火两天之后,菲军方声称毛派武装本周杀死了六名政府军士兵。The communist insurgency in the Philippines, which began in 1968, is one of the longest running in the world and has claimed an estimated 30,000 lives, according to the military.菲律宾于1968年开始的共产党起义,是世界上持续时间最长的起义之一,军方认为造成了约三万人死亡;Because I have lost so many soldiers in just 48 hours, I think to continue with the ceasefire does not or will not produce anything,; Duterte said in a speech.“鉴于我8小时内损失了这么多士兵,我认为继续停火现在不会未来也不会有任何成果,”杜特尔特在演讲中说;I really do not want to do this but if that is what the communists want, there is nothing I can do. So lets fight. Lets give it another 50 years.;“我真的不想这样做,但是既然这是共产党想要的,那我也没办法了。那就开战吧。再来五十年。”Duterte did not say whether the fourth round of peace negotiations set to start in the Norwegian capital Oslo in April would be stopped. Talks in Italy last week ended with no deal on a permanent cessation of fighting.杜特尔特并没有说月份定于挪威首都奥斯陆召开的第四轮和平谈判是否会被终止。上周在意大利进行的关于永久性停火的谈判无果而终。A self-styled socialist, Duterte said he was disappointed by the ceasefire decision because his administration had provided a ;golden opportunity; to a reach a peace deal with the rebels.自称社会主义者,杜特尔特说他对停火谈判结果感到非常失望,因为他的班子给了叛军一个金子般的机会来达成和平。The two sides separately declared ceasefires in August, and the informal arrangement largely held as they continued discussions in Rome.双方去年八月各自宣布停火,这个非正式约定主要是为了使得双方能在罗马继续会谈。But the Communist Party said Wednesday it was ending its ceasefire and accused police and soldiers of human rights abuses in rebel-influenced rural villages.但是共产党周三说取消停火,指责警察和士兵在叛军势力范围的村庄侵犯人权。Armed Forces of the Philippines Chief of Staff, General Eduardo Ano, welcomed Dutertes announcement.菲律宾武装部队总参谋长Eduardo Ano将军欢迎总统的这一决定;We will go after the (communists armed wing) to prevent them from conducting atrocities and criminal activities against the public,; Ano said in a statement.“我们将追踪这些共产党武装分子,阻止他们对于公众犯下罪行,”Ano在一份声明中说;And we will hit them hard!;“我们将给他们沉重打击!”In his speech Duterte criticised the rebels for making ;unreasonable demands; including asking for the release of 400 jailed guerrillas before agreeing to a bilateral ceasefire.杜特尔特在演讲中批评了毛派提出了“荒唐的要求”,包括要求在双方停火前释放400名被关押的游击队员。He said he had aly ;walked the extra mile; by releasing 18 communist leaders to kick-start the peace process last year but added he also had to secure the support of his security forces.他说,他已经“做出了额外的让步”,去年释放8名共产党领导来启动和平进程。他补充说但他也必须确保武装部队对其的持;I really tried but the demands are just too huge that it is impossible to meet or even work out a compromise,; Duterte said.“我尽了最大努力,但是对方欲壑难填,难以达到甚至难以协商一个折中方案”,杜特尔特说道。The communists said Wednesday the end of the ceasefire did not mean they were pulling out of peace negotiations, adding it was possible to ;talk while fighting;.而共产党一方称,周三取消的停火并不不意味着他们将撤出和平谈判,补充说可能会“边打边谈”。来 /201702/490517

David Cameron will come under pressure at this week’s G7 summit as fellow leaders take the British prime minister to task over his role in relations with China and a global fiscal stimulus.在本周七国集G7)峰会上,戴维#8226;卡梅David Cameron)将承受压力,因为其他几个国家的领导人将会批评这位英国首相在对华关系和全球财经刺激中扮演的角色。Mr Cameron will face opposition from Barack Obama, the US President, and Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, Britain’s stance as China’s “best partner in the westand its refusal to ease austerity at a time of weak global demand.鉴于英国秉持的作中国“在西方最佳伙伴”的立场、以及其在全球需求疲弱之际拒绝放松紧缩,卡梅伦将遭遇美国总统巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)和日本首相安倍晋Shinzo Abe)的反对。European diplomats have also criticised Britain’s approach to China, although Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, will lead a large delegation there next month and France also has big commercial interests in the country.欧洲外交官也对英国的对华政策持批评态度,尽管德国总理安格#8226;默克Angela Merkel)下月将率庞大代表团访华、而法国在中国也有着巨大的商业利益。Mr Abe is set to make relations with China one of the main topics of the G7 summit, which will be held on the island resort of Kashikojima in central Japan on Thursday and Friday. The subject of “international politicswill cover Beijing’s increasingly assertive role in the region.安倍将把对华关系设定为此次G7峰会的主要议题之一。此次会议将于周四、周五两天在日本中部贤岛(Kashikojima)度假村举行。会议的“国际政治”主题将讨论中国在该地区扮演的日益强硬的角色。Japan’s premier, recognising that the summit comes as Mr Cameron seeks international support ahead of Britain’s EU referendum, is unlikely to single out his UK counterpart. But the Pacific powers of Japan and the US want to stiffen European spines when it comes to relations with Beijing.安倍明白,此次峰会是在卡梅伦于英国脱欧公投前寻求国际持之际召开的,他不大可能将矛头专门指向卡梅伦。但日本和美国这两个太平洋强国希望,欧洲在面对对华关系问题时脊梁能硬起来。According to one of his aides, MrAbe wants to build a consensus on defending the rule of law at sea, especially in regard to China’s island-building in the South China Sea. Beijing has said it will not abide by a UN tribunal’s forthcoming decision on 15 islands, reefs and shoals claimed by China, arguing that the tribunal has no jurisdiction to rule on the case.安倍的一名助手称,安倍想构建在海上捍卫法治的共识,尤其是涉及中国在南中国海的造岛行为时。中国已表示,其不会遵守联合国一仲裁庭即将对中国声称拥有主权5座岛、礁和浅滩作出的仲裁。中方辩称,该仲裁庭对此案无管辖权。Mr Abe wants world leaders to oppose attempts to change the status quo by force, such as Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea or a Chinese seizure of islands.安倍希望,世界领导人能反对以武力改变现状的努力,比014年俄罗斯吞并克里米亚,或者中国夺取某些岛屿。There will also be a push to increase transparency about infrastructure investment in developing countries, where Japan often competes with China.安倍还将要求提高在发展中国家搞基础设施投资的透明度。在这方面,日本往往与中国存在竞争关系。However, according to several people involved in preparing the summit, the South China Sea may have a low profile in the G7 communiqué. Tokyo wants to win western support, rather than antagonise Beijing publicly.然而,据几名参与峰会筹备工作的人士表示,南中国海问题或许会低调地出现在G7峰会的公报中。日本想要的是赢得西方的持,而不是公开与中国为敌。Britain’s courtship of Beijing has caused irritation in Washington last year the Obama administration warned of a “constant accommodationof China by London.英国讨好中国的举动已惹恼了美国——去年,奥巴马政府曾对英国“不断迁就”中国发出警告。George Osborne, the UK chancellor, has led Britain’s China policy, including jumping the gun to become the first main western backer of Beijing’s new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. The US and Japan have not joined.英国财政大臣乔治#8226;奥斯George Osborne)主导了英国对华政策,包括抢先一步成为西方主要国家中首个加入亚洲基础设施投资(AIIB,简称:亚投行)的国家。美国和日本并未加入中国发起的亚投行。Mr Osborne followed that up with a high-profile visit to China last September, including a trip to Xinjiang, where Beijing is accused of repressing alleged Uighur Muslim “separatists随后,奥斯本于去月高调访华,包括访问了新疆。有些人谴责中国政府在新疆压迫所谓的维吾尔族穆斯林“分离主义分子”。In an interview with the FT during that visit, Mr Osborne said he wanted “to take a bit of a risk with the China relationship, pushing it so it really brings jobs and growth to our country奥斯本在那次访问中接受英囀?金融时报》采访时称,他想“在对华关系上冒点险,促使其给我们的国家带来实实在在的就业和增长”。The British government has worked hard to try to allay US concerns. Hugo Swire, minister of state at the Foreign Office, gave a speech in Washington last month in which he praised the US role in pushing back against Beijing in the South China Sea.英国政府费了很大力气来化解美国的担忧。上月,英国外交部国务大臣雨#8226;斯怀Hugo Swire)在华盛顿发表演说,赞扬了美国在南中国海对抗中国方面发挥的作用。He said that, forBritain, freedom of navigation and overflight were “non-negotiableand added that “we recognise and support the US role in defending those principles in Asia Pacific他说,对英国来说,航行与飞越自由是“没有商量余地的”。他接着说,“我们认识到并持美国在亚太捍卫这些原则方面发挥的作用”。Mr Abe’s main goal for the summit is making the G7 more open to fiscal stimulus, which would give him international cover for a delay in raising Japan’s consumption tax from 8 to 10 per cent.安倍为此次峰会设定的主要目标是,让G7成员国以更开放的态度对待财政刺激,这将为他拖延把日本消费税率%上调0%制造一个国际借口。The US, Canada, France and Italy support this, but Germany is strongly against and Mr Cameron’s aides said he believed that “every country should design its economic policies according to its own situation美国、加拿大、法国和意大利持这一目标,但德国强烈反对。卡梅伦的助手们表示,卡梅伦认为“各国应根据本国国情设计自己的经济政策”。Mr Cameron’s support for Berlin ensures that Ms Merkel will not be isolated on the issue. Mr Cameron called on the German chancellor’s support for his recent EU renegotiation.卡梅伦对德国的持确保了默克尔不会在这个问题上受到孤立。卡梅伦呼吁这位德国总理持他近来与欧盟(EU)之间的重新谈判。At the G7 finance ministers meeting in Sendai on Friday and Saturday, Mr Osborne lined up with Wolfgang Sch#228;uble of Germany to oppose fiscal stimulus, according to people present at the discussions. Mr Osborne wants to run a budget surplus by 2020.出席有关讨论的人士表示,在上周五、周六于仙台(Sendai)举行的G7财长会议上,奥斯本与德国财长沃尔夫冈#8226;朔伊布勒(Wolfgang Sch#228;uble)一道反对财政刺激。奥斯本希望英国020年时预算为盈余状态。Following the summit, Mr Obama will make a historic trip to Hiroshima with Mr Abe, becoming the first sitting US president to visit the site of the atomic bombing.G7峰会后,奥巴马将在安倍陪同下对广岛进行历史性访问。他将成为首位访问这一核爆地的在任美国总统。来 /201605/445610

Donald Trump’s stunning electoral defeat of Hillary Clinton marks a watershed not just for American politics, but for the entire world order. 唐纳特朗Donald Trump)在选举中意外击败希拉里.克林Hillary Clinton),不仅对美国政治而言标志着一个分水岭,对整个世界秩序也是如此。We appear to be entering a new age of populist nationalism, in which the dominant liberal order that has been constructed since the 1950s has come under attack from angry and energised democratic majorities. 我们似乎正进入一个新的民粹民族主义时代。在这个时代,自上世0年代构建起的主导的自由秩序,受到了情绪激愤的民主多数的攻击。The risk of sliding into a world of competitive and equally angry nationalisms is huge, 世界陷入同样愤怒的各种民族主义相互竞争的风险巨大。and if this happens it would mark as momentous a juncture as the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989.如果这种情况发生,它将标志着一个与1989年柏林墙倒塌同样重大的关头。The manner of Trump’s victory lays bare the social basis of the movement he has mobilised. 特朗普获胜的方式暴露了他动员起的这场运动的社会基础。A look at the voting map shows Clinton’s support concentrated geographically in cities along the coasts, with swaths of rural and small-town America voting solidly for Trump. 看一看投票地图,我们可以发现,希拉里的持者集中于沿海城市,而农村和小城镇地区坚定地投票持特朗普。The most surprising shifts were his flipping of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three northern industrial states that were so solidly Democratic in recent elections that Clinton didn’t even bother to campaign in the latter one. 最令人意想不到的是他在宾夕法尼亚、密歇根和威斯康星的翻盘,这三个北部工业州在最近几次选举中曾是如此固若金汤的民主党州,以至于希拉里甚至没有去威斯康星造势。He won by being able to win over unionised workers who had been hit by deindustrialisation, promising to make America great again by restoring their lost manufacturing jobs.特朗普获胜是因为他得以争取到那些受到去工业化冲击的工会工人的持,他承诺通过恢复他们失去的制造业工作岗位,让美国再次变得伟大。We have seen this story before. 这一幕似曾相识。This is the story of Brexit, where the pro-Leave vote was similarly concentrated in rural areas and small towns and cities outside London. 英国退欧就是这种情况——持退欧的投票同样集中于农村地区、小城镇以及伦敦以外的其他城市。It is also true in France, where working-class voters whose parents and grandparents used to vote for the Communist or Socialist parties are voting for Marine Le Pen’s National Front.在法国也是如此,父辈和祖父辈曾投票给共产党或社会党的工人阶级选民,眼下正投票持马琳.勒庞(Marine Le Pen)的国民阵National Front)。But populist nationalism is a far broader phenomenon than that. 但民粹民族主义是一个远比这更广泛的现象。Vladimir Putin remains unpopular among more educated voters in big cities such as St Petersburg and Moscow, but has a huge support base in the rest of the country. 弗拉基米普京(Vladimir Putin)在圣彼得堡、莫斯科等俄罗斯大城市受教育程度较高的选民中仍旧不受欢迎,但在该国其他地区却拥有众多持者。The same is true of Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has an enthusiastic support base among the country’s conservative lower middle class, or Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orban, who is popular everywhere but in Budapest.对土耳其总统雷杰塔伊埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)或者匈牙利总理欧尔维克Viktor Orban)来说也是如此,前者在土耳其保守的中产阶级下层中受到狂热的持,而后者在除了布达佩斯的整个匈牙利都受到欢迎。Social class, defined today by one’s level of education, appears to have become the single most important social fracture in countless industrialised and emerging-market countries. 如今,由个人受教育程度界定的社会阶层,似乎已经成为很多工业化和新兴市场国家中最重要的社会分割线。This, in turn, is driven directly by globalisation and the march of technology, which has been facilitated in turn by the liberal world order created largely by the US since 1945.这种现象受到全球化和技术进步的直接推动,而促进全球化和技术进步的正是945年以来主要由美国创建的自由世界秩序。When we talk about a liberal world order, we are speaking about the rules-based system of international trade and investment that has fuelled global growth in recent years. 在我们谈论自由世界秩序时,我们说的是近年来推动全球增长的、基于规则的国际贸易和投资体系。This is the system that allows iPhones to be assembled in China and shipped to customers in the US or Europe in the week before Christmas. 正是这一体系使得苹果手机能够在中国组装、并在圣诞节前一周运至美国或欧洲的消费者手中。It has also facilitated the movement of millions of people from poorer countries to richer ones, where they can find greater opportunities for themselves and their children. 这一体系还方便了数以百万计的人口从较贫困国家迁移至较富裕国家——在那里他们可以为自己和子女找到更好的发展机会。This system has worked as advertised: between 1970 and the US financial crisis of 2008, global output of goods and services quadrupled, bringing hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, not just in China and India but in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa.这一体系如宣传的那样奏效:从1970年到2008年美国金融危机,全球商品和务产出翻了两番,让数亿人口摆脱了贫困——不仅包括生活在中国和印度的人,还包括生活在拉丁美洲和撒哈拉以南非洲地区的人。But as everyone is painfully aware now, the benefits of this system did not filter down to the whole population. 但正如现在大家都已痛苦地意识到的,该体系所带来的好处并没有层层惠及所有人群。The working classes in the developed world saw their jobs disappear as companies outsourced and squeezed efficiencies in response to a ruthlessly competitive global market.随着企业为应对竞争残酷的全球市场而进行外包并尽可能提高效率,发达国家工人阶级失去了工作。This long-term story was hugely exacerbated by the US subprime crisis of 2008, and the euro crisis that hit Europe a couple of years later. 这一长期问题008年美国次贷危机以及几年后欧洲遭遇的欧元危机而大大加剧。In both cases, systems designed by elites liberalised financial markets in the US case, and European policies such as the euro and the Schengen system of internal migration collapsed dramatically in the face of external shocks. 在这两场危机中,精英们设计的体系——美国的自由金融市场以及欧洲的欧元和管理内部人口流动的申Schengen)体系等政策——在面对外部冲击时都迅速崩溃。The costs of these failures were again much more heavily borne by ordinary workers than by the elites themselves. 这些失败的代价又一次更多地由普通工人、而非精英自身承担。Ever since, the real question should not have been why populism has emerged in 2016, but why it took so long to become manifest.从此以后,真正的问题不应再是为什么民粹主义在2016年出现,而是为什么它过了这么久才显现出来。In the US, there was a political failure insofar as the system did not adequately represent the traditional working class. 在美国,政治上出现了这样一个错误:政治体制未充分代表传统工人阶级。The Republican party was dominated by corporate America and its allies who had profited handsomely from globalisation, while the Democratic party had become the party of identity politics: a coalition of women, African-Americans, Hispanics, environmentalists, and the LGBT community, that lost its focus on economic issues.从全球化中获利颇丰的美国企业界及其盟友主导了共和党;而民主党已变成一个玩弄身份政治的政党:一个由女性、非洲裔美国人、西裔美国人、环保主义者以及LGBT(女同性恋者、男同性恋者、双性恋者与跨性别者)等群体组成的联盟,不再关注经济问题。The failure of the American left to represent the working class is mirrored in similar failures across Europe. 美国左翼未能代表工人阶级,欧洲各地的左翼也犯下同样的错误。European social democracy had made its peace with globalisation a couple of decades ago, in the form of Blairite centrism or the kind of neoliberal reformism engineered by Gerhard Schr#246;der’s Social Democrats in the 2000s.二十年前,欧洲的社会民主主义就已经同全球化和解了,和解的表现就是布莱尔中间路线,以及德国前总理格哈施罗Gerhard Schr#246;der)的社会民主党在本世纪头十年设计的新自由主义改革。But the broader failure of the left was the same one made in the lead-up to 1914 and the Great war, when, in the apt phrase of the British-Czech philosopher, Ernest Gellner, a letter sent to a mailbox marked class was mistakenly delivered to one marked nation. 但左翼的更大错误跟一战前的那个是同一个,当时的情况——借用捷克裔英国哲学家埃内斯特.格尔Ernest Gellner)形象的描述——是一封本应投进标为阶class)的邮箱的信件,被错误地投进了标为民族(nation)的邮箱。Nation almost always trumps class because it is able to tap into a powerful source of identity, the desire to connect with an organic cultural community. 民族几乎总是压倒阶级,因为它能利用一种强烈的身份认同感,那种与一个有机的文化共同体建立联系的渴望。This longing for identity is now emerging in the form of the American alt-right, a formerly ostracised collection of groups espousing white nationalism in one form or another. 这种对身份认同的渴望正以美国新右alt-right)的形式显现出来,新右翼包括各种以前受到排斥的形形色色的白人至上主义团体。But even short of these extremists, many ordinary American citizens began to wonder why their communities were filling up with immigrants, and who had authorised a system of politically correct language by which one could not even complain about the problem. 但即使没有这些极端主义者,很多普通美国公民也开始奇怪为什么他们的社区中出现越来越多的移民,又是谁授权建立了一套讲究语言的政治正确性的体制,在这个体制中人们甚至不能抱怨这一问题。This is why Donald Trump received a huge number of votes from better-educated and more well-off voters as well, who were not victims of globalisation but still felt their country was being taken from them. 这就是为什么特朗普从受教育程度更高、更富裕的选民那里也得到了不少选票,这些人不是全球化的受害者,但仍感到有人正从他们手中夺走他们的国家。Needless to say, this dynamic underlay the Brexit vote as well.不用说,英国投票退欧本质上也是因为同样的原因。So what will be the concrete consequences of the Trump victory for the international system? Contrary to his critics, Trump does have a consistent and thought-through position: he is a nationalist on economic policy, and in relation to the global political system. 那么,特朗普获胜对国际体系将带来哪些实际影响?与他的批评者相反,特朗普确实拥有始终如一、经过深思熟虑的立场:他在经济政策和全球政治体系方面是一个民族主义者。He has clearly stated that he will seek to renegotiate existing trade agreements such as Nafta and presumably the WTO, and if he doesn’t get what he wants, he is willing to contemplate exiting from them. 他明确表示,将寻求就现有贸易协议重新进行谈判,如北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA),可能还有世贸组WTO)。And he has expressed admiration for strong leaders such as Russia’s Putin who nonetheless get results through decisive action. 如果他得不到自己想要的,他愿意考虑让美国退出。He is correspondingly much less enamoured of traditional US allies such as those in Nato, or Japan and South Korea, whom he has accused of freeriding on American power. 他对普京等通过果断行动一样办成了事情的强人领袖表示了赞赏。相比之下,他对北约成员国或日本、韩国等美国的传统盟国要冷淡得多,并指责这些国家搭美国力量的便车。This suggests that support for them will also be conditional on a renegotiation of the cost-sharing arrangements now in place.这意味着,对这些盟友的持将依据对现有费用分担安排的重新谈判而定。The dangers of these positions for both the global economy and for the global security system are impossible to overstate. 这些立场对全球经济和全球安全体系的威胁,怎样往严重了说都不为过。The world today is brimming with economic nationalism. 当今世界充满经济民族主义。Traditionally, an open trade and investment regime has depended on the hegemonic power of the US to remain afloat. 一直以来,一个开放的贸易和投资体系的正常运转,依靠的都是美国的霸权。If the US begins acting unilaterally to change the terms of the contract, there are many powerful players around the world who would be happy to retaliate, and set off a downward economic spiral reminiscent of the 1930s.如果美国开始单方面采取行动修改这一契约的条款,全世界范围内有很多强大的参与者都将乐于展开报复,并引发一场上世纪30年代那样的经济螺旋式下行。The danger to the international security system is as great. 这些立场对国际安全体系的威胁同样巨大。Russia and China have emerged in the past decades as leading authoritarian great powers, both of whom have territorial ambitions. 过去几十年间,俄罗斯、中国已崛起为重要的威权主义大国,且两国都有领土野心。Trump’s position on Russia is particularly troubling: he has never uttered a critical word about Putin, and has suggested that his takeover of Crimea was perhaps justified. 特朗普对俄罗斯的立场尤其令人担忧:他从未对普京有过半句批评,还暗示后者吞并克里米亚或许是合理的。Given his general ignorance about most aspects of foreign policy, his consistent specificity with regard to Russia suggests that Putin has some hidden leverage over him, perhaps in the form of debts to Russian sources that keep his business empire afloat. 考虑到特朗普对外交政策大多数方面整体的无知,他对俄罗斯的始终如一的特殊态度暗示着,普京对特朗普拥有某种隐形的影响力,或许后者的商业帝国赖以维系的债务幕后的债主是俄罗斯人。The first victim of any Trumpist attempt to get along better with Russia will be Ukraine and Georgia, two countries that have relied on US support to retain their independence as struggling democracies.特朗普与俄罗斯改善关系的任何尝试,最先伤害的将是乌克兰和格鲁吉亚,这两个身处困境的国家一直依靠美国的持才得以保持独立的民主国家地位。More broadly, a Trump presidency will signal the end of an era in which America symbolised democracy itself to people living under corrupt authoritarian governments around the world. 更广泛地说,特朗普担任总统将标志着一个时代的终结,在那个时代,美国对世界各地生活在腐败威权政府统治之下的人们而言就是民主的象征。American influence has always depended more on its soft power rather than misguided projections of force such as the invasion of Iraq. 美国的影响力一直更多地依赖于其软实力,而非像入侵伊拉克那样的不明智的武力使用。America’s choice last Tuesday signifies a switching of sides from the liberal internationalist camp, to the populist nationalist one. 美国11日作出的选择意味着,它脱离自由国际主义阵营,改投了民粹民族主义阵营。It is no accident that Trump was strongly supported by Ukip’s Nigel Farage, and that one of the first people to congratulate him was the National Front’s Marine Le Pen.特朗普受到英国独立党(UKIP)领袖奈杰法拉Nigel Farage)如此强烈的持并非偶然,国民阵线的马勒庞是最早对特朗普获胜表示祝贺的人之一也非偶然。Over the past year, a new populist-nationalist internationale has appeared, by which like-minded groups share information and support across borders. 过去一年,一个新的民民族主义国际已经浮现,想法相同的组织通过这个新的国际跨境共享信息和持。Putin’s Russia is one of the most enthusiastic contributors to this cause, not because it cares about other people’s national identity, but simply to be disruptive. 普京领导的俄罗斯是这一事业最热心的持者之一,不是因为它关心其他民族的民族认同,而只是为了制造混乱。The information war that Russia has waged through its hacking of Democratic National Committee emails has aly had a hugely corrosive effect on American institutions, and we can expect this to continue.俄罗斯通过侵入民主党全国委员会(Democratic National Committee)邮件系统发动的信息战,已然对美国的制度造成了巨大的侵蚀,我们可以预期这种状况还将持续。There remain a number of large uncertainties with regard to this new America. 关于这个新美国,目前仍存在若干较大的不确定因素。While Trump is a consistent nationalist at heart, he is also very transactional. 虽然特朗普本质上是一个一贯的民族主义者,但他也非常善做交易。What will he do when he discovers that other countries will not renegotiate existing trade pacts or alliance arrangements on his terms? Will he settle for the best deal he can get, or simply walk away? There has been a lot of talk about the dangers of his finger on the nuclear trigger, but my sense is that he is much more isolationist at heart than someone eager to use military force around the world. 当特朗普发现其他国家不会按照他的条件,就现有贸易协定或同盟安排重新进行谈判时,他会怎么做?他会退而接受自己能得到的最好交易,还是会一走了之?对于由他来控制核按钮的危险性,人们已经谈论了很多,但我的感觉是,他内心深处更是一个孤立主义者,而非一个渴望在全世界使用武力的人。When he confronts the reality of dealing with the Syrian civil war, he may well end up taking a page from the Obama playbook and simply continue to sit this one out.在他面对处理叙利亚内战这个现实时,他最后很可能会借鉴奥巴马的剧本,继续袖手旁观。This is the point at which the matter of character will come into play. 在这一点上,性格特征将会发挥作用。Like many other Americans, I find it hard to conceive of a personality less suited to be the leader of the free world. 像许多美国人一样,我觉得很难想象有性格比特朗普更不适合担当自由世界领袖的人了。This stems only in part from his substantive policy positions, as much from his extreme vanity and sensitivity to perceived slights. 他实质性的政策立场只是部分原因,其他原因还包括他极端的虚荣心以及敏感的自尊心。Last week, when on a stage with Medal of Honor winners, he blurted out that he too was brave, financially brave. 不久前,在与荣誉勋章(Medal of Honor)获得者同台时,他脱口而出,称自己也很勇敢——在财务上很大胆。He has asserted that he wants payback against all his enemies and critics. 他声称要对自己所有的敌人和批评者进行报复。When faced with other world leaders who will slight him, will he react like a challenged Mafia boss, or like a transactional businessman?当面对轻视他的其他世界领导人时,他的反应是会像一个受到挑战的黑手党老大,还是会像一个善做交易的商人?Today, the greatest challenge to liberal democracy comes not so much from overtly authoritarian powers such as China, as from within. 如今,对自由民主的最大挑战,与其说来自中国等公开实行威权主义的国家,不如说来自于自由民主世界内部。In the US, Britain, Europe, and a host of other countries, the democratic part of the political system is rising up against the liberal part, and threatening to use its apparent legitimacy to rip apart the rules that have heretofore constrained behaviour, anchoring an open and tolerant world. 在美囀?英囀?欧洲以及其他许多国家,政治体制中民主的部分正在反抗自由的部分,并有可能利用其表面上的合法性来撕毁现行的一些规则,正是那些规则一直以来约束了行为,撑起一个开放、包容的世界。The liberal elites that have created the system need to listen to the angry voices outside the gates and think about social equality and identity as top-drawer issues they must address. 创造了这一体系的自由主义精英们需要倾听门外愤怒的声音,把社会平等和身份认同作为他们必须解决的最重要问题来思考。One way or the other, we are going to be in for a rough ride over the next few years.不管怎样,我们在未来几年都免不了经历一段艰难旅程。来 /201611/479506

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