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2019年10月19日 12:29:03

Finance and Economics;Man and machine;财经;投资人与经济机器;The economic ideas of the worlds most successful hedge-fund boss;世界最成功的对冲基金经理的经济思想;“The most beautiful deleveraging yet seen” is how Ray Dalio describes what is now going on in Americas economy. As America has gone through the necessary process of reducing its debt-to-income ratio since the financial crash of 2008, he reckons its policymakers have done well in mixing painful stuff like debt restructuring with injections of cash to keep demand growing. Europes deleveraging, by contrast, is “ugly”.“这是我所见过的最美丽的去杠杆化”Ray Daio如此描述美国的经济现状。2008年经济危机以来,美国经历了为降低负债收入比而必须的的过程,他认为美国的政策制定者们在均衡棘手事务如债务重调和资金注入从而保持需求的持续上升方面做得可圈可点。相比之下,欧洲的去杠杆化显得“丑陋不堪”。Mr Dalios views are taken seriously. He made a fortune betting before the crash that the world had taken on too much debt and would need to slash it. Last year alone, his Bridgewater Pure Alpha fund earned its investors 13.8 billion Dollor, taking its total gains since it opened in 1975 to 35.8 billion Dollor, more than any other hedge fund ever, including the previous record-holder, George Soross Quantum Endowment Fund.Dalio的观点备受界内关注。在经济危机产生之前,他曾对经济局势做了一个断言,即世界经济需要大幅度地削减过重的负债。只去年一年,他的Bridgewater Pure Alpha基金就给投资者带来了138亿美元的回报,这也使得该基金达到自开创以来的358亿美元,并超过了包括以前的纪录保持者George Soros的 Quantum Endownment基金在内的任何一项对冲基金。Mr Dalio, an intense 62-year-old, is following in the footsteps of Mr Soros in other ways, too. Mr Soros has published several books on his theories, and is funding an institute to get mainstream economists to take alternative ideas seriously. Mr Dalio, too, is now trying to improve the public understanding of how the economy works. His economic model “is not very orthodox but gives him a pretty good sense of where the economy is,” says Paul Volcker, a former chairman of Americas Federal Reserve and one of Mr Dalios growing number of influential fans.在其他方面,现如今富有的已62岁的Dalio也在紧跟Soros的步伐。Soros至今已经出版了多本有关其理论的书籍,并正在资助一个机构,以便促使主流经济学家对另类思想加以重视。Dalio也在努力促进公众对经济运作过程的理解。美联储前主席Paul Volcker,作为Dalio日益增多且颇具影响力的粉丝之一,称其经济模式“并非绝对正统,但带给了他相当敏感的经济趋势把握能力”。Whereas Mr Soros credits the influence of Karl Popper, a philosopher who taught him as a student, Mr Dalio says his ideas are entirely the product of his own reflections on his life as a trader and his study of economic history. He has little academic economics (though his work has echoes of Hyman Minsky, an American economist, and of best-selling recent work on downturns by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff) but has conducted in-depth analysis of past periods of economic upheaval, such as the Depression in America, post-war Britain and the hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic. He has even simulated being an investor in markets in those periods by ing daily papers from these eras, receiving data and “trading” as if in real time.不同的是,Soros把他的成功归于其学生时代的哲学家老师Karl Popper的影响。Dalio则说他的思想完全是自己作为一个交易商的生活感悟和对经济学历史研究的产物。他几乎没有读过正统的学术经济学(虽然他的著作得到了美国经济学家Hyman Minsky以及Carmen Reinhart和Kenneth Rogoff最近有关经济低迷的畅销书的回应),但是他对过去的经济剧变时期的情况作了深入分析,其中包括美国的经济大萧条,战后的英国和魏玛共和国的恶性通货膨胀。他甚至曾假装自己是当时的投资者,通过阅读当时的日报来获得数据信息,并进行现实般的“交易”。In the early 1980s Mr Dalio started writing down rules that would guide his investing. He would later amend these rules depending on how well they predicted what actually happened. The process is now computerised, so that combinations of scores of decision-rules are applied to the 100 or so liquid-asset classes in which Bridgewater invests. These rules led him to hold both government bonds and gold last year, for example, because the deleveraging process was at a point where, unusually, those two assets would rise at the same time. He was right.在20世纪80年代早期,Dalio就开始积累决策规律以备引导他日后的投资。以后的日子里,他会根据这些规律预测事实的准确度来修改它们。现在这项工作已由计算机来处理,从而得出大量决策规律的组合并将其应用于Bridgewater投资的约100项流动资产中。比如在去年,因为不同寻常的是,在去杠杆化进程中政府债券和黄金会同时涨价,这些决策规律指导他同时握有二者。果不其然,他是正确的。What Mr Dalio calls the “timeless and universal” core of his economic ideas is set out in a 20-page “Template for Understanding” that he wrote shortly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and recently updated. The document begins: “The economy is like a machine.” This machine may look complex but is, he insists, relatively simple even if it is “not well understood”. Mr Dalio models the macroeconomy from the bottom up, by focusing on the individual transactions that are the machines moving parts. Conventional economics does not pay enough attention to the individual components of supply and, above all, demand, he says. To understand demand properly, you must know whether it is funded by the buyers own money or by credit from others.Dalio所谓的“不受时间限制,放之四海而皆准”的经济思想核心陈述于20页的《用于理解的模板》中。他写于2008年雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破产后不久并于近日更新。该文件以“经济就像一台机器”开始,他坚信,这台机器可能看起来复杂,但实际上它是相对简单的,即使是在它“不被很好地理解”的情况下。Dalio通过对经济机器的移动组成部分——个体交易,来自下而上地模拟宏观经济。他说,传统经济学对个体组成的供应尤其是他们的需求关注不够。要恰当地了解需求,你就必须知道为它提供资金的钱是来自购买者自己还是从他人的借贷。A huge amount of Bridgewaters efforts goes into gathering data on credit and equity, and understanding how that affects demand from individual market participants, such as a bank, or from a group of participants (such as subprime-mortgage borrowers). Bridgewater predicted the euro-zone debt crisis by totting up how much debt would need to be refinanced and when; and by examining all the potential buyers of that debt and their ability to buy it. Mr Volcker describes the degree of detail in Mr Dalios work as “mind-blowing” and admits to feeling sometimes that “he has a bigger staff, and produces more relevant statistics and analyses, than the Federal Reserve.”Bridgewater公司花了大力气来收集有关信贷和普通股的数据,并分析其是如何影响单个市场参与者比如一家和一群参与者(比如次级抵押贷款者)的需求的。该公司通过对需要再贷款的债务总值的合计,以及对欧元区债务潜在购买者的数量和他们的购买能力的研究,成功预测了欧元区的债务危机和其发生的时间。Volcker如此描述Dalio工作的细节详细程度——“叹为观止”,他也承认,在有些时候“他(Dalio)有更强大的团队,并能给出比美联储更中肯的统计数据和分析”。Two sorts of credit cycle are at the heart of Mr Dalios economic model: the business cycle, which typically lasts five to eight years, and a long-term (“long wave”) debt cycle, which can last 50-70 years. A business cycle usually ends in a recession, because the central bank raises the interest rate, reducing borrowing and demand. The debt cycle ends in deleveraging because there is a “shortage of capable providers of capital and/or a shortage of capable recipients of capital( borrowers and sellers of equity) that cannot be rectified by the central bank changing the cost of money.” Business cycles happen often, they are well understood and policymakers are fairly adept at managing them. A debt cycle tends to come along in a country once in a lifetime, tends to be poorly understood and is often mishandled by policymakers.Dalio的经济模式中有两种核心的信贷周期:通常持续5-8年的商业周期和长期的(“长波”)债务周期,后者长达50-70年。一次商业周期一般在经济衰退中结束,因为在经济衰退期,中央会提高利率,以降低贷款和需求。债务周期结束于去杠杆化过程中,此时“缺乏有能力的资金提供者或资金接收者(股权的贷方和卖方),而中央却无法通过改变资金成本来加以调节。”。商业周期时常产生,它们易于理解,也是政策制定者们善于控制的;然而,对某个国家而言,债务周期往往在人一生中只发生一次,所以他们对此不甚了解且往往处理不当。An ordinary recession can be ended by the central bank lowering the interest rate again. A deleveraging is much harder to end. According to Mr Dalio, it usually requires some combination of debt restructurings and write-offs, austerity, wealth transfers from rich to poor and money-printing. A “beautiful deleveraging” is one in which all these elements combine to keep the economy growing at a nominal rate that is higher than the nominal interest rate. (Beauty is in the eye of the beholder: Mr Dalio expects Americas GDP growth to average only 2% over a 15-year period.)中央通过降低利率来解决一般情况下的经济衰退。而去杠杆化远非如此简单,据Dalio称,它通常需要均衡债务重调与销账、财政紧缩、财富由富有阶层到贫困阶层的转移以及钞票印刷之间的关系。所谓“美丽的去杠杆化”是指能综合所有提及的因素从而保持经济的名义增长率高于名义利率。(所说的美丽是在旁观者眼中的:Dalio预期在为期15年的时间里,美国的GDP平均增长率仅为2%)Print too little money and the result is an ugly, deflationary deleveraging (see Greece); print too much and the deleveraging may become inflationary, as in Weimar Germany. Although Mr Dalio says he fears being misunderstood as saying “print a lot of money and everything will be OK, which I dont believe, all deleveragings have ended with the printing of significant amounts of money. But it has to be in balance with other policies.”印制过少货币的结果是“丑陋”的、通货紧缩的去杠杆化(比如希腊);印制过多则会导致类似德国魏玛的通货膨胀的去杠杆化。Dalio说“我并不同意所有去杠杆化都要大量地印制货币,那么只要印制钞票就会万事大吉的观点。但是这(货币的印制)确实需要和其他政策均衡作用”。即使他说自己担心被人误解。Mr Dalio admits to being wrong roughly a third of the time; indeed, he attributes a big part of his success to managing the risk of bad calls. And the years ahead are likely to provide a serious test of whether the economic machine is as simple as he says. For now, he is in a more optimistic mood thanks to the European Central Banks recent moves, in effect, to print money. Although he still expects debt restructuring in Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland, on top of that in Greece, he says that the “risk of chaos has been reduced and we are now calming ourselves down.”Heres hoping he is right again.Dalio承认他可能在犯第三次错误,而事实上,他把自己成功的大部分归功于对错误预测的风险的把握上。而且,过去的几年似乎是对他严峻的考验——验经济机器是否同他说的一样简单。就现在来说,因为今日欧洲中央正实行的货币印刷举措,他处于较乐观的心态。即使他仍希望西班牙、葡萄牙、意大利和爱尔兰尤其是希腊的债务重组。他说“混乱的风险已被降低,我们正在逐步安定下来”。这一次,我们希望它仍然是对的。 /201302/226337福建厦门市第一人民医院挂号;THE freedom to marry;, wrote Earl Warren, chief justice of the ed States Supreme Court,;has long been recognised as one of the vital personal rights essential to the orderly pursuit of happiness by free men.; Warren wrotethat sentence in 1967, by way of explaining why he and his colleagues unanimously ruled that laws banning interracial marriages violated both theequal protection and due process clauses of the fourteenth amendment. Supporters of gay marriage would like to see that same court apply that same reasoning to their cause. On February 7th a federal court in California brought them one step closer.;婚姻自由,长久以来都乃自由之人追求幸福不可或缺之至高无上人权之一。;美国最高法院的首席大法官Earl Warren在1967年时和他的同僚们一致通过裁定,认为禁止不同种族通婚的禁令违反了第十四修正案的平等保护条款和正当程序条款,为了解释这一裁定,他写下了上面这句话。同性恋婚姻的持者们希望看到这同一法庭也将同一理由适用于他们的案件。而加州联邦法庭在2月7日的判决让他们离自己的目标更近了一步。The ed States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit ruled that Proposition 8, a ballot initiative passed by Californiarsquo;s voters in November 2008 amending the constitution to prohibit gay marriage, was unconstitutional. That initiative passed fivemonths after Californiarsquo;s Supreme Court overturned an earlier ban on gaymarriage; during that time, California granted marriage licences to some 18,000 gay couples.美国第九巡回上诉法院裁定8号提案违宪。8号提案最早在2008年11月在加州投票通过,修改宪法以禁止同性婚姻。而在8号提案通过的五个月之前,加州最高法院推翻了之前一项关于同性婚姻的禁令;在此期间内(原:就在这五个月期间内),加州为大约18,000对同性;夫妻;颁发了结婚书。The appeals court upheld a lower courtrsquo;s ruling in 2010 that Proposition 8 violated the fourteenth amendment, but did so on far narrower grounds, leaving unanswered the broad question of whether states could ever restrict marriage to heterosexual couples, and finding instead that Californiarsquo;s measure visited a unique harm upon gays and lesbians by stripping them of a right they once enjoyed. Under California law, gays retained the rights to adopt children,file taxes jointly and share bank accounts. Proposition 8 simply denied them the ;official, cherished status; of marriage,leading the court to conclude that its sole purpose was ;to lessen the status and human dignity of gays and lesbians in California;.虽然巡回上诉法院持初级法院在2010年做出的关于8号提案违反第十四修正案的裁定,但它基于的理由却极为狭隘,它回避了一个更广泛的悬而未决的问题;;美国各州是否会将婚姻仅限定于异性夫妻之间;相反地,却只针对;由于加州的做法剥夺了一项同性恋者们曾经享有的权利,反而对他们造成了特定伤害;这一点做文章。加州的法律规定,同性恋(伴侣)享有领养孩子,共同纳税以及共享账户的权利。8号提案只是否决了他们婚姻的;合法的,崇高的地位;,这使法庭断定8号提案唯一的目的就是要;降低加州同性恋者的地位并剥夺他们的尊严;。The case now seems certain to be appealed to the ed States Supreme Court, though other states are simply pushing ahead with allowing gay marriage: on February 8th Washingtonrsquo;s state legislature voted to allow it, though the decision could yet require approval at a referendum. Marriage, far beyond such mundane matters aspensions and bank accounts, is of course a hugely emotive subject. As the Ninth Circuit noted in handing down its judgment, ;Had Marilyn Monroersquo;s film been called lsquo;How to Register a Domestic Partnership with a Millionairersquo;, it would not have conveyed the same meaning.;尽管其他州都在推动允许同性婚姻的进程;;2月8日,华盛顿州众议院投票通过允许同性婚姻的提案,当然决议的最终批准还需公民投票表决;;但现在看来,此案(8号提案违宪一案)一定会上诉至美国最高法院。婚姻,是与情感高度相关之事,远不同于养老金,账户等一般俗务。就像第九巡回上诉法院在宣布其裁决时所指出的那样:;如果玛丽莲梦露的电影叫《如何与百万富翁签订一纸家庭伴侣关系》(而不叫《如何嫁个百万富翁》),意思就大相径庭了。;201203/173766厦门假体鼻尖整形价格厦门双眼皮手术最好的医院

厦门正规医院嘴唇变薄手术厦门颈部提拉多少钱Vincent, remember, spoke four languages fluently, and he decided to produce a translation of the Bible in all of them simultaneously, Dutch, French, German and English.文森特仍然记得流利的讲4种语言,并且他决定同时开始进行荷兰语、法语、德语和英语版本圣经的编纂。He divided his paper into four columns and inched his way through the Bible in four languages at once.他把他的文章分为四大板块,并且用4种语言演绎圣经。This is a painting he did some years of his fathers Bible.这是一幅他为自己父亲绘画的圣经。Its still being used in Zundert.而在津德尔特他还在继续使用。The book-selling job didnt work out, of course.图书销售的工作显然没有成功,。Vincent was still determined to join the church, like his father and his grandfather.文森特仍然决定加入教会,就像他的父亲和他的祖父一样。Amsterdam University had a six-year theology course, and Pastor Theodorus fixed it for his son to get on it, providing he passed some exams in Latin and Greek.阿姆斯特丹大学有一个六年的神学课程,而牧师苏格拉底认为这就是自己儿子应该去的地方,他通过了一些拉丁语和希腊语的考试。Vincent, at last, turned out to be unusually hopeless at both of those.最终文森特原在这两种境遇中遇到了不同寻常的绝望。注:听力文本来源于普特201209/198437福建厦门欧菲医院丰胸多少钱Finance and Economics; Choosing co-investors; Friends without benefits;财经;选择投资伙伴;不带来好处的友谊;Venture capitalists need to be ruthless about their relationships;风险投资家们在他们的关系里需要更加无情;Even in a world of algorithmic trading and automated credit scoring, good financial decisions still depend on judgment. Choosing whom to invest alongside is particularly important in the uncertain world of venture capital, where many deals are syndicated, in order to share risk and information. Paul Gompers and Yuhai Xuan of Harvard Business School and Vladimir Mukharlyamov of Harvard University have put together a dataset of 3,500 early-stage investors in almost 12,000 deals to examine why specific pairs of investors are drawn to each other, and how that affects their financial performance.就算在一个充斥着算法式交易和自动信誉评级的世界里,好的投资决策依然依靠判断力。选择与谁并肩作战,在一个充满着未知数的风投世界里显得尤其重要。许多风投项目都是联合投资以分散风险与共享信息。哈佛商学院Paul Gompers和Yuhai Xuan跟哈佛大学Vladimir Mukharlyamov整合了一个拥有3500名早期投资者,将近12,000个案例的资料库。该数据库式用以检验为什么特定组合的投资者能互相吸引,而这种关系如何影响他们的投资表现。Investors clearly prefer partners with whom they have something in common. People who have worked at the same company are over 60% more likely to co-invest than those who have not. Investors who belong to the same ethnic minority, or studied at the same university, are around 20% more likely to pair up. The bias towards co-investors on measures of ability is weaker: investors with degrees from the best universities are just 9% more likely to get together.投资者明显更喜欢拥有共同点的伙伴。曾在同一家公司上班的比那些没有这种经历的伙伴共同投资的几率要高60%。同一种族,或同一大学毕业的投资者共同投资的几率也要高出20%。根据个人能力来搭伙的倾向并不明显,具有最优秀大学学位的投资者共同投资的几率仅高出9%。Rapport is a poor basis for selecting partners. The authors examine investors record at exiting investments through an initial public offering (IPO). An IPO is the holy grail for many start-ups, but the odds of success are 22% lower if a co-investing pair are alumni of the same university, and 18% lower if they share a past employer. By itself, ethnicity has no effect on investment success. In a pair, it is a different story. Co-investors from the same ethnic minority are 25% less likely to bring a portfolio company to an IPO (and the odds are still lower if the partners are East Asian). The data suggest that the poorer results of similar investors stem less from selecting bad companies, more from bad decisions taken together after the initial investment. It may be that a diversity of views helps investors to make better calls.基于友善来选择伙伴是一个失败的根据。作者从现有上市的表现来检验了投资者的投资记录。上市是许多创业公司的终极目标,但校友伙伴搭配投资的成功率比非校友的要低22%,同时曾同事过的伙伴成功率则低18%。如果仅考虑种族问题,这对最终投资成功率没有影响。但一旦涉及搭配,这就完全不一样。由同一种族组成的共同投资搭配,旗下企业上市的几率要低25%(东亚伙伴的成功率则更低)。这些数据表明具有共同点投资伙伴所产生的疲弱投资结果,受选错公司的影响其实较小,而更多的是由初步投资后的错误决策而导致。这可能是因为多样化视角有利于投资者作出更好的判断。Partnerships based on ability, not similarity, tend to do better. If one investor of a pair has a degree from a leading university, this adds 9% to the possibility of their selected firms reaching an IPO; if the second does too, that adds a further 11%. Of course, such investors still have to find each other. Research led by Alexander Ljungqvist of New York Universitys Stern School of Business has shown that VC firms in influential network positions perform better, as they have more opportunity to take part in syndications. The moral seems to be that investors should make friends easily, but not invest for friendships sake alone.基于能力而非共同点组成的搭配往往更成功。如果其中一名投资者拥有顶尖大学学位,这将使被投资公司的上市几率上升9%;如果另一名也有同样等级的学位,这将额外增加11%的上市几率。纽约大学斯特恩商学院Alexander Ljungqvist带头的研究显示,拥有具影响力关系网的风投企业表现更好,因为他们更有机会参与到联合投资里。这个寓言似乎告诉投资者应广泛交友,而不要仅因友谊就参与投资。 /201303/229666同安区妇女医院门诊时间

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