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明星资讯腾讯娱乐2019年09月17日 14:17:01
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THE GOOD TIMES are rolling again in the country#39;s toniest neighborhoods. Property prices in East Hampton, New York City and Beverly Hills were up about 10 percent last year, according to Zillow, a Seattle-based site that estimates home values. Near Miami, on the exclusive Fisher Island-which can be reached only by private ferry, and even then, only by those whose names appear on a special list-home prices are up by about a third.美国的高档社区又迎来了大好时光。根据西雅图房价估算网站Zillow的数据,去年东汉普顿、纽约市和比弗利山庄的房价上涨10%左右。在迈阿密附近有座不对外人开放的费希尔岛(Fisher Island),去岛上只能通过私家渡轮、而且只有一个特别名单上的人能去,那里的房价更是上涨了三分之一左右。Higher real-estate prices normally spell good news for sellers, but there#39;s an associated cost that many tend to forget: A property will probably generate much higher estate taxes upon the owner#39;s death than it would have a few years ago. What#39;s more, estate taxes have been rising faster than property prices and asset values-and, some experts say, they are likely to rise even further. Yet some legal maneuvering may help cushion the blow.房价上涨对于卖家来说通常是好事,但其中也涉及一项很多人总是忘记的成本:到业主去世的时候,房产产生的遗产税恐怕要远远高于几年前的水平。另外,遗产税的上涨一直快于房价和资产价格,而据一些专家说,可能还会进一步上涨。但一些法律上的操作或许有助于缓冲这种负面影响。Today, the federal estate tax kicks in on estates worth more than .34 million, with the rate topping out at 40 percent. Since anyone is allowed to leave an unlimited amount of money to their spouse, the effective exemption per couple comes out to about .7 million. The low point for the estate-tax rate came in 2010, when it was effectively zero-thanks to political dysfunction on Capitol Hill that led to a one-year hiatus on the tax. As a result, the heirs of a handful of billionaires-including late New York Yankees owner George Steinbrenner-got to keep hundreds of millions of dollars that otherwise would have gone to Uncle Sam.如今的联邦房地产遗产税针对的是价值534万美元以上的房产,最高税率40%。由于每个人都可以把一笔金额不限的钱留给配偶,每对夫妇事实上的免税额是1,070万美元左右。最低的房地产遗产税率出现在2010年,由于国会山的政治失灵导致该税种出现了一年的空档,当年的税率实际为零。得益于此,包括纽约扬基队(New York Yankees)已故老板乔治#12539;斯坦布莱纳(George Steinbrenner)等在内的好几位亿万富豪的继承人留住了本来要交给美国政府的数亿美元。Of course, those savings are not available today. Indeed, the growing economic inequality in America means that, if anything, estate-tax rates are likely to rise. Even as recently as the 1970s, the top federal estate-tax rate on the richest Americans was 77 percent. If the economic disparity continues to widen, today#39;s 40 percent rate may seem temptingly low to a future Congress.这些钱在今天当然是省不下了。事实上由于美国贫富差距越来越大,遗产税税率不变则已,要变则很有可能是提高。在距今不远的20世纪70年代,针对美国最富人群的联邦房地产遗产税税率最高就曾达到77%。如果贫富差距继续拉大,今天40%的税率在将来的国会看来或许显得实在太低,不得不要上调。The good news? The federal tax code has more loopholes than a 100-foot scarf created by a team of injured knitters, including a couple of big ones that might be especially useful here. The first allows someone to transfer a home to an heir through a temporary trust known as a qualified personal residence trust, or QPRT (pronounced cue-pert). This trust can make time your friend, rather than your enemy, for estate-tax purposes, as it can sharply reduce the taxable value of a home. A million home transferred to an heir via a seven-year QPRT, for instance, would only count as an .6 million home. Since the beneficiary wouldn#39;t get their hands on the property for another seven years, the Internal Revenue Service would allow the estate to discount the value by a few percentage points for each year#39;s delay.好消息是,联邦税法的漏洞比一群带伤的编织工编织出的30米长围巾的漏洞还多。其中的几个大漏洞在这里或许特别有用。第一个漏洞允许人们通过一种名叫“合格个人住宅信托”(qualified personal residence trust,简称QPRT)的临时性基金把房产转让给继承人。这只基金可以让时间成为你在遗产税方面的朋友而不是敌人,因为它可以大幅度地降低房产的应税价值。举个例子:一套价值1,000万美元的住宅通过一只七年期的QPRT转让给继承人,就只会当作一套价值860万美元的房产计税。由于受益人要七年以后才能得到房产,国税局(Internal Revenue Service)会允许这套房产的价值每推迟一年就少计算几个百分点。Even better, once the home is transferred to an heir, all future price appreciation gets excluded from the taxable value. If, for instance, that private-island home increases in value by, say, 7 percent a year and you die 10 years from now, then without the trust your estate would have to pay taxes on a million home. With the trust, the taxes would be on a home valued at .6 million. Depending on your exact circumstances, that difference could end up saving your estate as much as million in taxes. There are some caveats, of course, the main one being that you have to outlive the trust to get the benefit. Otherwise, the full value of the home reverts to your estate. Moreover, once the home is transferred, it is in the hands of your heirs, even if you live for 20 more years.喜上加喜:一旦房产转让给继承人,将来所有增值部分都会排除在应税价值之外。比如,如果上述那套私属岛屿住宅每年增值7%,而你在10年后去世,那么在没有QPRT的情况下,你这套房产作为接受的遗产将被按2,000万美元的价值交税。在有QPRT的情况下,房产的应税价值将只是860万美元。到最后,这之间的差价有望帮助你节省遗产税最多500万美元,具体多少则要看你的具体情况。当然也有一些注意事项,最重要的一条是你要比这只信托基金活得长才能享受到这个好处,不然你自己的遗产又要按住宅的全部价值计税。另外,一旦房产被转让,它便归你的继承人所有,哪怕你再活20年也没有用。Another little-known strategy is to transfer the home to a family-controlled limited liability company and then give shares in the LLC to beneficiaries each year. This could slash a future estate-tax bill a few different ways. First, a person could claim an estate-tax discount on the value of each share in the LLC, because it#39;s a minority stake in a private company. So, even though a 1 percent share in a million beach house in the Hamptons ought to be worth 0,000, for estate-tax purposes, it might be valued at only ,000-or even less. Second, one could slice ,000 more o#172; the taxable value-for each beneficiary, each year-with the federal gift-tax exclusion. That could bring the taxable value of that 0,000 share down to ,000. Finally, once a share is given, it and its future price appreciation are excluded from the estate , up to the ,000 gift-tax exclusion per person. Put another way, even if a home is worth million, its total taxable value to an estate would be considerably less once a person dies in 10 years#39; time-again, saving millions.另外一条鲜为人知的策略是把房产转让给一个由家族控制的有限责任公司,然后一年一年地将有限责任公司的股份送给受益人。这样做可以从几个不同的途径减少将来的遗产税。第一,可以要求对有限责任公司的每股价值折价征收遗产税,因为它是非公众公司的少数股权。所以,对于汉普顿一处1,000万美元的海滩大宅,尽管它1%的股份本来应该是价值10万美元,但在计算遗产税的时候,它可以只被估值为8.5万美元、甚至更少。第二,根据联邦赠予税免税额规定,每位受益人每一年的应税价值可以再砍掉1.4万美元,这样就可以把10万美元份额的应税价值降到7.1万美元。最后,股份一旦送出,其本身和将来的增值部分就会从遗产中扣除,最高可以扣除每人1.4万美元的赠予税免税额。也就是说,即便房产价值2,000万美元,只要人能活过10年,遗产的应税总额会大大减少――依旧省下几百万美元。Some experts prefer the LLC route. Over time, it can allow for a #39;substantial wealth transfer at no cost to the parent,#39;says Eric Rothenberg, a tax attorney with a law fi rm based in Needham, Mass. But the big issue with an LLC is determining how much of a discount can be claimed on each share. In the past, some have claimed a discount of as much as 40 percent, meaning they have transferred 0,000 worth of shares for as little as ,000 in taxable value, #39;but that#39;s aggressive,#39; says Bob Glovsky, a fi nancial planner at Colony Group, a wealthmanagement fi rm that is based in Boston and has around .3 billion in assets under management. He warns that claiming too much might mean a challenge from the IRS. If the government agency succeeds, the investor would lose the savings-and owe additional interest as well as penalties. For these reasons, Glovsky recommends opting for the QPRT instead of the LLC. What#39;s more, the discounts used on a QPRT are based on tables that are published by the IRS-so they aren#39;t open to challenge. And, Glovsky says, the trusts are often simpler to set up as well.一些专家更推荐有限责任公司这条路子。马萨诸塞州尼德姆一律师事务所的税法律师埃里克#12539;罗藤伯格(Eric Rothenberg)说,经过一定的时间,这个办法可以“在不给父母造成代价的情况下实现大额财富转移”。但使用有限责任公司的办法存在一个重要问题,就是确定每一股可以拿到多少折价。波士顿管理约33亿美元资产的财富管理公司Colony Group的理财规划师鲍伯#12539;格鲁夫斯基(Colony Group)说,过去有人最高拿到了40%的折价,意味着转让价值10万美元的股份应税价值最低只有6万美元,但这就比较“激进”了。他提醒,申请折扣幅度太大可能招致国税局的质疑。如果国税局质疑成功,投资者不但省不下这些钱,还要付额外的利息和罚金。有鉴于此,格鲁夫斯基建议选择QPRT而不是有限责任公司。另外,QPRT享受的折扣是以国税局公布的数据表格为基础的,所以不会被质疑。格鲁夫斯基还说,信托基金的成立通常也更加简单。Most well-o#172; folks, of course, remember to get sound legal advice on these kinds of matters. It might help during the process to keep in mind that some say the estate tax is among the least obnoxious forms of taxes, because it is levied neither on toil nor on entrepreneurship, but on the good fortune of inheritance. And even though you might ultimately have to pay the tax in the end, the U.S. tax code-fortunately-contains some breaks for the well-informed.当然,大多数富人都会想到在这些问题上寻求可靠的法律建议。在此过程中记住这样一点或许是有好处的:有人说,房地产遗产税是最不讨人嫌的税种之一,因为它的征税对象既不是辛勤劳动者,也不是创业者,而是继承财产的幸运儿。而且,尽管最终你还是得缴纳税款,但好在美国税法还是有些空子可以让见多识广的人去利用。 /201404/285490

  Cell phones have become ubiquitous even in the world’s poorest places. Now, researchers are using data collected by the devices to address third-world problems, according to a report provided exclusively to Fortune.甚至在世界上最贫穷的地方,手机也已经变得无处不在。《财富》杂志(Fortune)独家获得的一份报告披露,研究人员正在利用这些设备收集的数据来解决第三世界的问题。The report, produced by the Bill amp; Melinda Gates Foundation in conjunction with strategy consulting firm Cartesian, argues that analyzing mobile data has the potential to improve the lives of the poor in many ways—from expanding access to banking services to tracking the sp of infectious diseases.这份由比尔和梅琳达o盖茨基金会(Bill amp; Melinda Gates Foundation)与战略咨询机构笛卡儿公司(Cartesian)合作推出的报告称,从扩大务的覆盖面到跟踪传染病的传播,分析移动数据有望从多个层面改善穷困人口的生活。Nirant Gupta, an author of the report, says research from Harvard and other large universities prompted the Gates Foundation to further analyze cell phone data in developing countries so that the findings could move from research to implementation.报告执笔人尼朗特o古普塔表示,哈佛大学(Harvard University)和其他大学的研究促使盖茨基金会进一步分析了发展中国家的手机数据,以便相关发现能够从研究转入实施阶段。“As we talked to researchers, we thought they were doing really interesting and exciting things,” he says.他说:“我们跟研究人员进行了深入交谈,我们认为他们正在从事的研究非常有趣,令人兴奋。”Studying 10 developing countries across sub-Saharan African and Asia, the researchers found that many residents view cellular phones as a necessity, even cutting back on food purchases to pay their phone bills. Although more than 60% of people in the countries studied live on less than per day, the majority of people there own cell phones. In Nigeria and Kenya, for example, 67% of adults own cell phones, while at least 58% do in India, Indonesia and Botswana. Even among people earning a day or less, more than half own mobile phones in Botswana, Kenya and Nigeria.研究人员研究了撒哈拉以南非洲和亚洲的10个发展中国家,发现许多居民都把手机看成是生活必需品,为了付电话费,宁愿节衣缩食。这些国家有超过60%的人口每天的生活费用不足2美元,但大多数人都拥有一部手机。例如,在尼日利亚和肯尼亚,67%的成年人拥有手机。在印度、印度尼西亚和茨瓦纳,至少58%的成年人拥有手机。茨瓦纳、肯尼亚和尼日利亚的许多人每天只能挣1美元,甚至更少,但其中超过一半人拥有一部手机。With the influx of new data, the report suggests new applications for it, such as creating better disaster relief programs. After the 2010 earthquake in Haiti, for example, several universities looked at data from cell phone towers and SIM cards to see where residents went after the quake hit. Instead of going to the closest “safe” zone, many survivors chose to go to locations where they had traveled to before.随着新数据的不断涌入,这份报告建议为这些数据开拓新用途,比如打造更好的灾难救济方案。例如,2010年海地大地震爆发后,几所大学通过观察手机基站和SIM卡的数据,来搜寻居民在地震发生后的踪迹。许多幸存者并没有去最近的“安全”地带,而是奔赴他们以前去过的地点。Jake Kendall, another author of the report, said the data could also be used in tracking diseases, for instance. By watching the mobility patterns of cell phone users, researchers can better understand how diseases like malaria sp and aim relief efforts at specific areas.报告的另一位作者杰克o肯德尔表示,这些数据也可以用来追踪疾病。通过观测手机用户的移动模式,研究人员可以更好地理解疟疾等疾病的蔓延方式,从而有针对性地在特定区域展开救援工作。Of course, mobile data collection raises issues of privacy. The report’s authors suggest that phone companies can scrub data of any personally identifiable information before releasing it to researchers.采集移动数据当然会引发隐私问题。这份报告的作者建议手机运营商删除所有可识别具体个人的信息,然后再把数据传送给研究人员。The data has endless potential to improve conditions in the developing world, far beyond the ways outlined in the report, the authors say. “The real opportunity is to take these tools and apply them more broadly. That would be where you’d make a larger impact,” says Ed Naef, vice president of strategy consulting for Cartesian, and one of the report’s lead authors.作者表示,手机数据具有改善发展中国家生存条件的无穷潜力,用途远远超出这份报告所列举的方式。笛卡尔公司战略咨询事务副总裁、这份报告的主要作者之一埃德o纳伊夫说:“真正的机会在于利用这些工具,更广泛地加以应用,这样就会带来更大的影响。”While the Gates Foundation has not yet announced projects that will implement the findings of the study, Gupta says that projects are in the works, including potential partnerships with the ed Nations Global Pulse, a U.N. initiative to use Big Data for humanitarian purposes.虽然盖茨基金会还没有宣布什么项目来利用这项研究得出的发现,但古普塔表示,相关项目正处于计划阶段,而联合国全球脉动(ed Nations Global Pulse)是潜在合作伙伴之一。后者是联合国发起的一个项目,旨在应用大数据来解决人道主义问题。 /201407/310996

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  The No Make Up Selfies which have taken the internet by storm over the last two days are thought to have raised a staggering #163;1 million for charity.素颜自拍活动这两天在网络上掀起了一场风暴,由此活动募捐的善款达到令人惊讶的一百万英镑。And now the Fellas of Facebook and Twitter have decided they too want to get their mugs in on the action and a flurry of selfies featuring men in make-up have started appearing online.现在Facebook和Twitter上的小伙子们也坐不住了,想在这个活动里露一把脸,于是,一汉子们的化妆照在网络上传播开来。Some of the fellas seem to have gone girly and cute, while others were maybe inspired by Halloween outfits when they got out the slap, but their efforts were all commendable.这其中有一些看起来女孩子气而可爱,另一些则像是换上了万圣节装扮。当然了,他们的良苦用心是值得称赞的。Meanwhile the #NoMakeUpSelfie shows no signs of dieing down just yet as women continue to strip back their look in the name of charity.与此同时,“素颜自拍”慈善活动并没有因此消失,女性们依然在为了慈善活动上传素颜照。Kath Abrahams, Director of Engagement and Income generation at Breakthrough Breast Cancer, said: #39;We are delighted to see the success of the no make-up selfie viral campaign. It is great to see the British public getting behind the campaign and helping to raise awareness of breast cancer.#39;“突破乳腺癌”项目参与与创收一代主管Kath Abrahams说道:“我们很高兴看到素颜自拍活动病毒性宣传的成功。看到英国民众持和提高人们对乳腺癌认知度的感觉很棒。”#39;Here at Breakthrough, we have seen a huge spike in the number of unique visitors to our website, smashing our record to date. We have received hundreds of donations from people simply texting PINK to 70300 in the past 24 hours. We would like to thank all those who have supported us, enabling our scientists to continue their life-saving research.“在活动中,我们看到了网站独立用户访问大幅上升,打破了记录。在过去的24小时里,我们收到了成百上千通过发送‘PINK’到70300捐款的短信。我们非常感谢持我们的人,这些捐款使得我们的科学家能够继续拯救生命的研究。”#39;Breast cancer is not yesterday’s problem; every ten minutes a woman is diagnosed with breast cancer. Anything that gets the public behind this important cause is to be celebrated. It isn’t too late to get involved, so go ahead and text PINK to 70300.#39;“乳腺癌并不是已经过去的问题,现在每十分钟就有一位女性被诊断出乳腺癌,任何一个能拉动公众关注这个重要议题的事情都值得庆贺。任何时候参与都不晚,所以行动起来,发短信‘PINK’到70300捐款吧。”Most women usually shy away from the camera if they#39;re not wearing at least a slick of mascara or a pop of colour on their lips.任何一位女性如果没有上睫毛膏或抹口红都很羞于站在镜头前。But anyone using social media over the last 48 hours can#39;t fail to have noticed a flurry of snaps featuring women with no slap on.但是任何使用社交媒体的人都可能看到一大堆没有抹口红的女性照片。In fact the trend has taken Twitter and Facebook by storm with thousands of females wiping off their make-up and posting photos using the hash tag #NoMakeUpSelfie.事实上,Twitter和Facebook上数以千计的女性卸下妆容,拍下了自己的素颜照片上传网络,并带上标签“素颜自拍”。Everyone from cancer survivors to men in full drag have been posting pictures in on Twitter and Facebook.从癌症存活者到男扮女装者,他们都在上传照片。Though nobody seems to know where the idea came from, the rule seemed to be that women post their picture and then nominate other female friends to do the same with all posting that the photos were to #39;raise awareness of cancer#39;.虽然没人知道这个主题是从哪里来的,但规则似乎是女性上传自己的照片然后提名其他的女性朋友跟上,以此来提高人们对癌症的关注。After becoming aware of the flurry of selfies, Cancer Research sent out a tweet saying: #39;We’re loving your #cancerawareness #nomakeupselfie pics! The campaign isn’t ours but every #163; helps #beatcancersooner.#39; Cancer Research says so far it has raised #163;1million in 24 hours.在注意到这股自拍潮流后,癌症研究中心发布Twitter消息:“我们非常喜欢你们上传的‘关注癌症’‘素颜自拍’照片!这个活动不是我们发起的,但是大家的每一份捐款都会帮助‘日后战胜癌症’。”癌症研究中心称在过去的24小时里他们收到了一百万英镑的募捐。Those posting the selfies or nominating others to do so are texting the word BEAT to 70099 TO DONATE #163;3.这些发布自拍或邀请别人的活动就是发布BEAT到70099,以此捐出3英镑。Carolan Davidge, director of communications at Cancer Research UK said, “The #nomakeupselfie Twitter trend isn’t something Cancer Research UK started – but it’s great to see so many people getting involved to help raise awareness of cancer amongst their friends and family. If people would like to choose to support our work to beat cancer sooner, they can visit www.cruk.org.”英国癌症研究中心媒体总监Carolan Davidge说道:“这股Twitter上的‘素颜自拍’潮流并不是英国癌症协会发起的,但是能看到这么多人加入进来提高周围人们对癌症的认识很棒。如果他们愿意持我们打倒癌症的事业,可以访问www.cruk.org。”It#39;s not known where or how the trend for using a no make-up selfie started this time around although last week author Laura Lippman caused an online storm with a similar campaign in support of actress Kim Novak and her appearance at the Oscars.现在还不知道用素颜自拍宣传癌症这个活动是从哪里或者怎样掀起的,虽然上周作家Laura Lippman在网上发起了一个类似活动持演员Kim Novak和她在奥斯卡上的露面。Now, following this new viral selfie campaign the Facebook group No Make Up Selfie For Cancer Awareness has more than 153,690 likes and hundreds of photo uploads.现在,伴随着这个自拍活动,Facebook上的“素颜自拍关注癌症”小组已经获得153690个赞以及几百张照片的上传。Cancer survivor Deborah Ferguson from Liverpool submitted her photo to the Facebook group and agreed to have it published on MailOnline.来自利物浦的癌症存活者Deborah Ferguson在Facebook小组上传了自己的照片,并同意将照片发布在《每日邮报》上。She said: #39;Can I campaign on behalf of all neglected boobies please? Give them a check, I did that#39;s why I have such a big smile as am a survivor.#39;她说:“我能代表所有那些被忽视的傻瓜们吗?亲亲他们,因为我是存活着,所以我才能有如此的笑容。”Another participant., Abigail Spillman said: #39;I think it is a fantastic way to raise awareness. Its only been going on since yesterday and aly it is trending worldwide.另一位参与者Abigail Spillman说:“我觉得这是提高人们关注的一个奇妙方式。虽然是昨天才开始,但是已经席卷了全世界。”#39;Along with a #nomakeupselfie and a small donation (if you wish) is a massive help. Well done on using Facebook and Twitter for putting it to good use!#39;“上传一张素颜照片,再加上一笔小小捐款就是很大的帮助了,这是充分利用Facebook和Twitter。”Sophie Williams, who works for a PR firm, told MailOnline she posted her #nomakeupselfie and promises to donate 50p for each like she receives to Cancer Research UK.在公关公司工作的Sophie Williams透露,她上传了自己的素颜照,并承诺每得到一个赞就捐出50英镑给英国癌症研究中心。Dancer Felixy Splits posted a fresh faced pic, and told MailOnline: #39;Everyone knows someone who has suffered from this awful disease.舞者Felixy Splits上传了自己容光焕发的照片,她说道:“每个人都知道有些人正遭受着这种疾病的折磨。”#39;It#39;s not only important to raise awareness but to donate anything you can. Make a difference and do something positive today.#39;“光提高人们的注意力是不够的,你还得尽你所能做些实事。与众不同,拿出行动。”Katie Weir of Freya Lingerie also joined in. She told MailOnline: #39;Through the recent nomination trend on Facebook it is easy to see the power of social media and how quickly posts can go viral.Freya内衣品牌的Katie Weir也加入了这个活动。她说:“通过这段时间Facebook的点名活动,我们能轻易看到社交媒体的力量以及病毒式传播的迅速。”#39;It is fantastic to see young women embracing their make-up free faces to raise awareness of breast cancer.#39;“看到年轻女性通过素颜提醒人们关注乳腺癌很好。”#39;I was nominated by my friend and by doing so I donated #163;5 to the charity which I wouldn#39;t have done if I hadn#39;t seen the status!#39;“我是被朋友点名然后上传照片并捐出了5英镑,如果没有看到这个活动我就不会做了。”And it#39;s not just women who are getting in on the action. In solidarity, men too have com up with their own way of raising awareness - but they#39;re slapping on the make-up.而且,不只是女性加入了这项活动,为了团结一致,男性们也通过自己的方式提醒人们关注,不过他们是给自己脸上化妆。Rachel Horkan submitted a photo of her 12-year-old little brother Zach in full make-up.Rachel Horkan上传了自己12岁的弟弟Zach化上浓妆的照片。She wrote: #39;[He] decided to put the make-up on as us girls are taking it of all to help cancer awareness, so proud of him to do this at such a young age! Bless him lots of likes for this young man people xxx#39;她写道:“他决定画上浓妆办成女孩子来持这项活动。他能在这么小的年纪这么做让我很骄傲!希望她的行为能得到大家的很多赞。” /201403/281670

  China#39;s manufacturing sector contracted slightly in August, underscoring the broader economic slowdown in Asia#39;s largest economy.8月份中国制造业活动略有收缩,凸显出这个亚洲最大经济体的宏观经济正在放缓。The official manufacturing PMI was 49.7, exactly in line with expectations. It had been 50 the previous month - on the threshold that separates expansion from contraction.8月份,中国官方的制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)为49.7,与预期完全一致。上个月,该指数的读数为50,正好落在荣枯线上。Readings have been either a nudge north or south 50 in 2015.2015年,该指数的读数一直是要么略高于50,要么略低于50。The official PMI for the services sector was 53.4, versus a ing of 53.9 in July. (No estimates were given).官方的务业PMI则为53.4,略低于7月份的53.9。 /201509/396726When it comes to corn imports, the big worry for Chinese leaders lies in the history of another crop: soybeans.一谈到玉米进口,中国领导人难免会想起大豆的历史教训。The thinking is: #39;We cannot have a situation like it was with soybeans, where we now heavily rely on imports,#39; Huang Dafang, the director of the Biotechnology Research Institute of Beijing#39;s influential Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told reporters Thursday.中国农业科学院(Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences)生物技术研究所所长黄大昉周四对记者说,不能让玉米像大豆那样严重依赖进口,不能重蹈大豆的覆辙。Told from some quarters, the story of the Chinese soybean is a lesson in a strategic error.从某些方面讲,中国大豆政策是战略上的失误。Until the early years of the 21st century, China mostly grew its own soybeans. The oilseed -- a key ingredient for many of Asia#39;s most popular foods, including soy sauce -- was once counted among the crops that contributed to Beijing#39;s totemic goal of having domestic grains feed at least 95% of its people#39;s consumption. The government hasn#39;t abandoned this self-sufficiency target, but it has dropped soybeans from the count, Mr. Huang said.直到本世纪头几年,中国大豆基本上还是自给。作为一种油料作物,大豆是亚洲许多最受欢迎的食品和调味品(例如酱油)的重要原料。在中国划定的最低粮食自给率95%的目标中,大豆也曾被列入自给自足的计划,但黄大昉说,政府虽然没有放弃粮食自给率目标,但已经不再把大豆算入其中。That#39;s because Beijing bowed to rising demand and opened its gates to soybean imports as part of its accession to the World Trade Organization. By 2004, soybean imports overtook domestic output. Today, China is the world#39;s largest soybean importer, importing 63.4 million metric tons last year -- about a third came from the U.S. -- while producing just 13 million tons for itself.之所以会这样,一方面是因为需求攀升,一方面也是因为开放大豆进口是中国加入世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization)的一项承诺。到2004年,中国大豆进口量已超过国内产量。中国目前是全球最大的大豆进口国,去年进口量达到6,340万吨(约三分之一进口自美国),国内产量仅为1,300万吨。What#39;s worrying people who think about China#39;s strategic independence: China#39;s corn market is showing signs of going the way of the soybean.关注中国战略独立性的人担心,中国的玉米市场有重蹈大豆覆辙的迹象。Until 2010, China was a net exporter of corn. It turned net importer that year, with growth rates rising explosively. The U.S. accounts for more than 90% of its supply.2010年,中国从过去的玉米净出口国变成净进口国,进口量呈爆炸式增长。在中国进口的玉米中90%以上来自美国。China is now at a juncture where the question is whether it will continue to embrace rising volumes of corn imports or aggressively grow its home turf. Last year, corn imports fell 37% --though the country stayed a net importer amid record-high monthly shipments.中国正处于十字路口,是继续大规模进口玉米还是努力增加国内产量,需要中国做出抉择。去年中国玉米进口量下降37%,但由于月度进口量创下纪录,中国仍是玉米净进口国。Part of the reduction was due to a strong domestic harvest. But China in December also made headlines by turning away 545,000 tons of U.S. corn, an unprecedented volume of rejections, because the shipments contained MIR-162, a genetically modified strain that China hasn#39;t approved.去年中国玉米进口量的下降一定程度上与国内玉米丰?有关。但去年12月份中国退回54.5万吨美国玉米事件引发了广泛关注,这次退回的玉米数量前所未有,退货理由是玉米中含有中国尚未批准的转基因成分MIR-162。On Thursday, Mr. Huang said the issue turned purely on compliance with the letter of the law, not on a question over the strain#39;s health standards. #39;Based on what I know, [the rejection] was not a safety issue, but a procedural matter of Chinese law and requirements,#39; he said.黄大昉周四说,退货完全是为遵守相关法规,与MIR-162健康标准无关。他说,据他所知,退货不是因为安全问题,而是程序问题。But the rejection drew the spotlight to China#39;s rising need for food, tempered by fear among wide sections of the populace over GMO food imports. Beijing allows GMO corn imports for processing as animal feed but not for human consumption.中国国内对进口转基因食品的安全性普遍存在质疑,拒收玉米事件将中国食品需求不断上升问题置于聚光灯下。中国政府允许进口转基因玉米用于动物饲料加工,但不允许用于人类食用。The government has so far held back from giving the green light for domestic GMO corn to be commercially grown and distributed for human consumption. There is still no sign that the agriculture ministry is prepared to quickly pave the way for high-yield homegrown GMO maize.中国尚未批准在国内进行转基因玉米的商业化种植和将转基因玉米用于人类食用。目前没有迹象表明农业部会在短期内出台政策为国内种植高产转基因玉米铺路。Xu Haibin, a director at the China National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment, said Thursday the government is still mulling the move. Mr. Huang said corn will most likely be the next GMO crop approved for commercial distribution in China, after cotton and papaya, but #39;the timeline is still not very clear.#39;国家食品安全风险评估中心(China National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment)的徐海斌周四表示,政府还在考虑这件事。黄大昉说,玉米很可能成为棉花和番木瓜之后下一个被批准商业化种植的转基因作物,但时间不是很明确。 /201402/275794A trickle of statements from Chinese leaders in recent months have given hope to some residents of Beijing and other smog-choked Chinese cities that they might regularly breathe clean air within a few years. Prime Minister Li Keqiang in March declared a “war against pollution,” for instance.中国领导人最近几个月发表的一系列声明,给北京及其他被烟雾笼罩的城市的居民带来了希望,他们可能会在几年之内,实现经常呼吸新鲜空气的梦想。例如,中国总理李克强在今年3月「向环境污染宣战」。But China Daily, an official English-language newspaper, came in with a reality check on Wednesday in the form of an article published under the headline “Beijing Expects Healthy Air by 2030.”但周三,官方英文报纸《中国日报》的一篇题为《北京空气质量有望在2030年达标》的报道,将人们拉回到现实中来。The article went on to say that it would be 16 years before levels of dangerous fine particulate matter in the Chinese capital would drop to an “internationally recognized safe level.” The fine particulate matter is known as PM 2.5 because its diameter is less than 2.5 microns. It can penetrate deep into the lungs and enter the bloodstream.该报道称,北京地区的危险细颗粒物浓度降到「国际公认的安全水平」需要16年的时间。这种细颗粒物的直径不足2.5微米,因此被称为PM2.5。它能够深入肺部,并进入血液。The 16-year time frame means that anyone born today in Beijing who grows up in the city will spend his or her entire childhood breathing unhealthy air. In recent years, parents in Beijing, a city of more than 21 million, have become increasingly anxious about the air quality and other forms of pollution. Many Chinese who can afford to do so are moving abroad or decamping to cleaner parts of China. Multinational companies are having a much harder time recruiting foreign workers for Beijing jobs. Beijing residents are stocking up on expensive air purifiers, and some international schools have even set up outdoor sports domes made of synthetic fabric (what some parents are calling “pollution domes”).16 年的时间意味着,如今在北京出生、长大的儿童,在整个童年时期都将呼吸有害空气。最近几年,居住在北京的家长们日益担心空气质量及其他污染。北京人口已经 超过了2100万。很多有条件的中国人都已搬到国外,或逃到国内空气比较清洁的地区。如今,跨国公司要招聘外国人到北京工作比以前难了很多。北京居民采购 昂贵的空气凈化器,一些国际学校甚至还在室外运动场上搭起由混合纤维制成的顶篷(一些家长称之为「污染篷」)。Recent scientific studies have shown that the type of air pollution in northern China can shave five years off the average life span, lead to permanent lung impairment in children and contribute to slow brain development and personality problems in children whose mothers were exposed to the bad air during pregnancy.最近的科学研究发现,中国北部地区的空气污染类型能使平均寿命缩减五年,使儿童遭受永久性的肺损伤,母亲在怀期间呼吸有毒空气还会导致孩子大脑发育缓慢,存在性格问题。Most of the air pollution in Beijing comes from coal-burning power plants and factories in nearby provinces. Emissions from vehicles, especially those using diesel gasoline, are also major contributors.北京地区的空气污染主要源自周边省份的燃煤发电厂和工厂。汽车——特别是使用柴油、汽油的汽车排放的尾气也是主要因素。“Improving air quality in the city is not going to be an easy task,” Pan Tao, head of the Beijing Municipal Research Institute of Environmental Protection, said at a conference, according to China Daily. “It takes time and effort to turn the ship around.”据《中国日报》报道,「改善北京空气质量不是一项简单的任务,」北京市环境保护科学研究院院长潘涛在参加会议时说。「改变现状需要时间和精力。」The concentration level of PM 2.5 cited by China Daily as “healthy,” and supposedly attainable by 2030, was 35 micrograms per cubic meter. The article said the World Health Organization had stated that PM 2.5 levels should not exceed this.《中国日报》报道称,PM2.5浓度的「健康」标准为35微克/立方米,北京有望在2030年达标。文章称,世界卫生组织(World Health Organization,简称WHO)已经说明,PM2.5浓度不应该超过这个标准。Actually, the W.H.O. has said that PM 2.5 should not exceed 25 micrograms per cubic meter over a 24-hour period. By that standard, Beijing still might not have healthy air by 2030. The limit of 35 micrograms per cubic meter, mistakenly cited by China Daily as the W.H.O. standard, is actually just an interim target set by the W.H.O. for heavily polluted countries. For all nations, the W.H.O. recommends achieving the standard of 25 micrograms per cubic meter.实 际上,WHO说的是PM2.5平均浓度要在24小时内不超过25微克/立方米。按照这个标准,北京的空气质量可能在2030年前无法达标。《中国日报》错 误地引用了WHO设定的35微克/立方米的标准,实际上那是WHO为污染严重的国家设定的过渡目标。WHO建议所有国家达到25微克/立方米的标准。 China Daily cited Mr. Pan as saying an average PM 2.5 concentration of 35 micrograms per cubic meter could be reached by 2030.《中国日报》援引潘涛的话称,北京的PM2.5年均浓度有望在2030年达标。The Beijing Environmental Protection Bureau has said the average PM 2.5 concentration last year was 89.5 micrograms per cubic meter, which is more than 3.5 times the W.H.O. recommended exposure limit. On a particularly grim day in January 2013 that is now commonly called the “airpocalypse” by English speakers, parts of Beijing had PM 2.5 concentrations that were 40 times the W.H.O. recommended limit.北 京市环保局曾表示,去年PM2.5年均浓度为89.5微克/立方米,是WHO建议的接触限度的三倍多。在2013年1月空气格外糟糕的一天——说英语的人 通常称之为「airpocalypse」(空气末日),北京部分地区的PM2.5浓度是WHO建议的接触限度的40倍。On Tuesday, which happened to be the 93rd birthday of the Chinese Communist Party, the PM 2.5 concentration in Beijing hit 168 micrograms per cubic meter, almost seven times the W.H.O. exposure limit, according to the ed States Embassy’s rooftop air monitor. The air was a dismal gray soup the entire day, and the embassy rated it as “very unhealthy” in the evening.美国大使馆屋顶上的空气污染监测器显示,周二,北京的PM2.5浓度达到了168微克/立方米,几乎是WHO接触限度的七倍,这一天正好是中国共产党的93岁生日。天空一整天都非常阴沉,大使馆在晚上将空气质量评定为「非常不健康」。“The current pollution emission is far beyond the environmental capacity in the city, and any adverse climate condition would easily result in smoggy days,” Mr. Pan said, according to China Daily. “The key to current air quality improvement lies in emission reduction.”据《中国日报》报道,「当前北京的污染物排放量仍远超环境容量,任何恶劣的气候条件都容易产生雾霾天,」潘涛说。「目前,改善空气质量关键在于减排。」An antipollution plan announced last September by the State Council, China’s cabinet, said the crowded and filthy Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area of northern China had to reduce PM 2.5 levels by 25 percent before 2017. But Mr. Pan said that even if Beijing and the nearby areas were to meet that target, the level of particulate matter would still be harmful to people’s health.中国国务院(相当于中国的内阁)去年9月公布了大气污染防治计划,称北方的京津冀地区必须在2017年前将PM2.5浓度降低25%。但潘涛表示,即便北京及周边地区达到了该目标,颗粒物的浓度仍对健康有害。In March, the Ministry of Environmental Protection announced that only three of 74 Chinese cities whose air is monitored by the central government met minimum standards for air quality last year. The State Council said in February that it would offer a total of 10 billion renminbi, or .65 billion, to cities and regions that made “significant progress” this year in air pollution control.今年3月,中国环境保护部宣布,去年中央政府监测的74个城市中,只有3个城市达到了最低空气质量标准。中国国务院在今年2月宣布,今年将为那些在空气污染治理方面取得「重大进步」的城市和地区提供总计100亿元人民币的奖励。 /201407/309863

  Hong Kong has come up with a novel way to deal with the rising costs of an ageing population and a shortage of land: export some of its elderly across the border to mainland China.香港设计出了一个应对老龄人口相关费用日益上涨以及土地短缺问题的新方法:将部分老龄人口输出到边境线另一边的中国内地。The Chinese territory is not alone in looking at ways to deal with a problem that is taxing governments across Asia from Japan to Singapore, South Korea and mainland China itself.作为中国领土一部分的香港并不是唯一正在寻求老龄化应对之策的地区,老龄化给日本、新加坡、韩国以及中国内地等亚洲地区的各国政府都造成了沉重负担。But its partial solution comes against a backdrop of growing hostility between the people of Hong Kong and their close neighbours.但香港的局部解决方案产生的背景是,香港民众与他们内地近邻之间的关系愈发紧张。In recent years Hong Kong campaigners have denounced “mainland mothers” for occupying maternity beds, when they cross the border to give birth and ensure their children have Hong Kong residency. They have also turned their ire against tourists from the mainland for using up local resources, despite the fact that visitors pour huge amounts of money into the territory. This trend even prompted local lawmakers to consider amending anti-discrimination laws so that calling mainlanders “locusts” would be a racist offence.近年来,香港的社会活动人士公开指责“内地产妇”占用了产房病床,这类产妇过境来到香港分娩,以确保她们的孩子拥有香港居留权。香港活动人士还把怒火指向了内地游客,指责他们耗尽了香港当地资源,虽然他们也给香港带来了大规模资金流入。这一趋势甚至促使香港立法当局考虑修订反歧视法规,称内地客为“蝗虫”将被视作一种种族主义违法行为。But now the Hong Kong government, under pressure to provide homes for almost 30,000 elderly people on the waiting list for subsidised residential care, is looking to neighbouring Guangdong province to provide the space, and a partial solution, for its demographic problem.但香港政府目前面临着巨大压力,需要向等候名单上的约3万名老年人提供有补贴的院舍护理务。香港政府将希望寄托在了毗邻的广东省身上,希望广东能够提供土地,并给香港的人口结构问题提供一个局部解决方案。The elderly population, defined as those aged over 65, is set to make up more than a third of the population by 2050. Hong Kong also has one of the highest elderly poverty rates in the developed world.到了2050年,老龄人口——按定义是指年龄超过65岁的群体——在香港总人口中所占比例预计将超过三分之一。香港同时也是老年人贫困率最高的发达经济体之一。The scheme will initially be limited to a maximum of 400 places but the need is acute. The average wait of 20-30 months for a place in a residential home means thousands of elderly people die before they ever get one.新计划最初限定于至多400个宿位,但其所反映的需求非常急迫。养老务院舍一个宿位的平均等待时长为20至30个月,这意味着数以千计的老人还没等到宿位,就已离世了。Ng Ping Yiu took up a place at a care home across the border before the new scheme was unveiled. But now that it is due to start in earnest, the 71-year-old has begun recommending the Hong Kong Society for Rehabilitation’s home in the manufacturing centre of Shenzhen to his friends.吴平耀(Ng Ping Yiu,音译)早在新计划公布以前,就在边境另一边的一家护理中心占了一个宿位。现在新计划将要真正启动了,这位现年71岁的老人开始向朋友们推荐香港康复会(Hong Kong Society for Rehabilitation)在深圳设立的护理中心。深圳是一座制造业中心城市。“Here, there are mountains, greenery and flowers .#8201;.#8201;. For visiting, it’s not as convenient as Hong Kong, but there’s not that much difference,” says Mr Ng.吴平耀说:“这里有山,有绿叶植物和鲜花。。。在来人探访方面,这里不像香港那么方便,但也没有太大的区别。”The shortage of care home places that has taken Mr Ng across the Chinese border is not unique to Hong Kong. Indeed, mainland China will have to consider how it cares for its own elderly, who are set to grow to almost a quarter of the population by 2050.护理中心宿位短缺促使吴平耀穿过了中国边境,但这一问题并非香港所独有。正相反,中国内地也需要思考如何为本土老人提供护理务;到2050年,老年人占中国内地总人口的比例将上升至约四分之一。But Hong Kong’s struggle to house its old people is exacerbated by a shortage of land that has meant its property prices are among the highest in the world. And yet the take-up of mainland residential places by Hong Kong residents has so far been relatively low.但香港为老年群体提供住所的困难因土地供给短缺而进一步加大,而土地供给短缺又使香港成为了全球房地产价格最高的地区之一。但到目前为止,香港居民入住内地护理院舍宿位的比例一直相对较低。Shuffling around his home in the Kowloon area while his wife sleeps, 87-year-old Ng Shui Wing could certainly do with more space. The flat, made up of one main room with a kitchen and bathroom attached, has barely enough space to contain their belongings, let alone his wife’s wheelchairs – one of which doubles as a chair because of the lack of room.现年87岁的吴水永(Ng Shui Wing,音译)在位于香港九龙地区的家中拖着脚四处走动,此时他的妻子正在睡觉。毫无疑问,他当然希望有更大的空间。这间由一个主卧、一个厨房和一个卫生间组成的公寓几乎没有足够的空间来放下他们的所有物品,在放下他妻子的轮椅后就更是局促——因为空间不够,这副轮椅也承担了椅子的双重作用。Mr Ng has been waiting for a subsidised place in a care home for four years but has no wish to go to Guangdong. “If I went, how would I go at my age? How would I go so far?”过去四年来,吴水永一直在等候一个政府补贴的护理中心宿位,但他从未产生过去广东的念头。“如果我要去广东,在我这把年纪能怎么过去?我怎么去得了那么远的地方?”He is also worried about being separated from his wife, who has had a stroke: “I care for her, I feed her#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;When I’m at home to look after her it’s better – to have a loved one there.”他还担心和自己的妻子分开,妻子此前患上了中风。“我照顾她,喂她吃饭……我在家里照料她的时候,身边有一个相爱的人,会更好一点。”Advocates of the scheme – the first applications will be processed in July – believe the government will need to provide incentives, including reassurances about healthcare, for the likes of Mr Ng. In the past, people who retired to the mainland have often travelled back to Hong Kong to receive medical treatment because they cannot afford to pay for it in China.新计划的持者们相信,政府有必要向吴水永这样的老人提供激励机制,包括向他们就医疗保健务做出保。过去,退休之后定居内地的老人常常会返回香港接受治疗,因为他们承担不起在内地接受治疗的费用。新计划将于今年7月处理首批申请。The Elderly Commission, which was set up to advise the territory’s authorities and first suggested the cross-border housing scheme, has also been #173;lobbying the Hong Kong government to do more closer to home and make facilities for the #173;elderly a requirement when it sells land to private developers.香港安老事务委员会(Elderly Commission)一直在游说香港政府在更靠近香港本土的地方采取更多举措,并在出售土地给私营开发商的时候,把为老年人提供务设施作为必要条件。该委员会的宗旨是为香港当局提供建议,跨境住房供给计划就是其首先提出的。Alfred Chan, a gerontologist who is the commission chairman, says the government “has made the guarantee that the same services planned for everyone should remain the same”.老年学家陈章明(Alfred Chan)是安老事务委员会主席。他表示,香港政府“已经做出保,计划向每一个人提供的同等务将保持不变。”Most agree that the #173;elderly would prefer to grow old closer to home or with family.大多数人都一致认为,老年人会倾向于在离家更近的地方或者和家人一起度过晚年。“It’s the culture to look after the elderly,” says #173;Cheung Moon-wah, general manager of elderly services at the Housing Society, a Hong Kong non-governmental organisation. “We don’t want premature institutionalisation.”非政府组织香港房屋协会(Housing Society)负责长者务的总经理张满华(#173;Cheung Moon-wah)表示:“照顾老年人是我们文化的一部分。我们不想要过于早熟的体制化。”Meanwhile, the waiting lists for residential care places in Hong Kong grows and the prospects remain stark. “We’re not forcing the elderly to go to Guangdong or the mainland to grow old,” says Ng Hang-sau, chief executive of the Hong Kong Society for Rehabilitation, which helps the disabled, chronically ill and aged. “This [scheme] just gives one more option to Hong Kong residents.与此同时,香港养老院舍宿位的等候入住名单却越来越长,未来的前景依然严峻。香港康复会首席执行官伍杏修(Ng Hang-sau)表示:“我们并不是在强迫老年人去广东或者内地养老。这一计划仅仅是向香港居民提供了一个新的选择。”香港康复会主要向残疾人、慢性病患者以及老年群体提供帮助。“[But] if they are number 50 on the waiting list and they choose to come to the mainland, they can get a place quite quickly. If they choose not to, they continue to be number 50 on the list.”“但如果他们目前在等候名单上排在第50位,而他们选择前往内地,就能很快得到一个护理宿位。否则,他们仍将只是名单上的第50位。” /201406/306069

  

  Russia’s ruble may have strengthened sharply Wednesday, but it’s plunge in recent days has encouraged plenty of talk about the country’s catastrophe, with some even proclaiming that the new Russia is about to go the way of the old USSR.俄罗斯卢布虽然在上周三强劲反弹,但之前几天的暴跌,已经让坊间充满“俄罗斯大难临头”的言论;甚至有人预言,今天的俄罗斯将重蹈苏联的覆辙。Don’t believe it. Russia is not the ed States, and the effects of a rapidly declining currency over there are much less dramatic than they would be in the U.S.别信这些话。俄罗斯并非美国,货币迅速贬值对俄罗斯的影响,远不会像在美国那样严重。One important thing to remember is that the fall of the ruble has accompanied a precipitous decline in the per barrel price of oil. But the two are not as intimately connected as might be supposed. Yes, Russia has a resource-based economy that is hurt by oil weakness. However, oil is traded nearly everywhere in U.S. dollars, which are presently enjoying considerable strength.重点是,在卢布汇率下跌的同时,石油价格也在骤降。但两者之间的联系也许不像人们所想的那么紧密。的确,油价下跌对俄罗斯以自然资源为基础的经济产生了不利影响。然而,几乎所有的石油交易都是以美元进行的,而目前美元则相当坚挺。This means that Russian oil producers can sell their product in these strong dollars but pay their expenses in devalued rubles. Thus, they can make capital improvements, invest in new capacity, or do further explorations for less than it would have cost before the ruble’s value was halved against the dollar. The sector remains healthy, and able to continue contributing the lion’s share of governmental tax revenues.也就是说,俄罗斯石油生产企业在出售产品时,可以用强劲的美元进行结算,而生产费用则用贬值的卢布来付。由于卢布兑美元的比价已经下降了将近50%,石油企业可以改善自身的资本状况,或者用更低的成本进行新产能投资,或者继续进行勘探。俄罗斯石油行业依然很健康,并且能够继续为政府贡献大部分税收。Nor is ruble volatility going to affect the ability of most Russian companies to service their debt. Most of the dollar-denominated corporate debt that has to be rolled over in the coming months was borrowed by state companies, which have a steady stream of foreign currency revenues from oil and gas exports.卢布的震荡也不会影响大多数俄罗斯企业的偿债能力。未来几个月中,大多数需要展期的美元债务由俄罗斯国有企业持有,而石油和天然气出口为这些企业提供了稳定的外汇来源。Russian consumers will be hurt, of course, due to the higher costs of imported goods, as well as the squeeze inflation puts on their incomes. But, by the same token, exports become much more attractive to foreign buyers. A cheaper ruble boosts the profit outlook for all Russian companies involved in international trade. Additionally, when the present currency weakness is added to the ban on food imports from the European Union, the two could eventually lead to an import-substitution boom in Russia.当然,由于进口商品价格上升,以及通胀对收入的挤压,俄罗斯的消费者将蒙受损失。但出于同样的原因,俄罗斯出口产品将对外国买家更具吸引力。卢布贬值提升了所有参与国际贸易的俄罗斯公司的盈利前景。In any event, don’t expect any deprivations to inspire riots in the streets of Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s popularity has soared since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis. The people trust him. They’ll tighten their belts and there will be no widesp revolt against his policies.不管经济困境如何,都不太可能引发莫斯科的街头骚乱。乌克兰危机爆发以来,俄罗斯总统普京的持率不断飙升。俄罗斯人信任他。他们会勒紧裤带,而普京的政策则不会遭到广泛的反对。Further, the high price of oil during the commodity supercycle, coupled with a high real exchange rate, led to a serious decline in the Russia’s manufacturing and agricultural sectors over the past 15 years. This correlation—termed by economists “Dutch disease”—lowered the Russian manufacturing sector’s share of its economy to 8% from 21% in 2000.进一步来看,过去15年中,受处于大宗商品超级周期的高油价的影响,再加上卢布汇率处于高点,俄罗斯的制造业和农业均出现了严重滑坡。这种被经济学家称为“荷兰病”( 指一国经济中某一初级产品部门异常繁荣而导致其他部门的衰落的现象——译注)的状况,让制造业在俄罗斯经济中的比重从2000年的21%降到了现在的8%。The longer the ruble remains weak, however, the less Dutch disease will rule the day. A lower currency means investment in Russian manufacturing and agriculture will make good economic sense again. Both should be given a real fillip.话说回来,卢布保持低迷的时间越长,“荷兰病”的影响就会越小。卢布贬值意味着俄罗斯制造业和农业的投资将带来较好的经济效益,这两个领域都将反弹。Low oil prices are also good for Russia’s big customers, especially China, with which Putin has been forging ever-stronger ties. If, as expected, Russia and China agree to transactions in rubles and/or yuan, that will push them even closer together and further undermine the dollar’s worldwide hegemony. Putin always thinks decades ahead, and any short-term loss of energy revenues will be far offset by the long-term gains of his economic alliances.低油价还对俄罗斯的大客户们有利,特别是中国,而普京也一直在加强中俄之间的联系。如果两国以卢布或人民币进行贸易结算如预期那样达成协议,中俄就会走的更近,同时也将进一步削弱美元在全球的统治地位。普京一直着眼长远,他建立经济同盟所带来的长期收益将远远超过能源收入方面的短期损失。In the most recent development, the Russian central bank has reacted by raising interest rates to 17%. On the one hand, this is meant to curb inflation. On the other, it’s an direct response to the short selling speculators who’ve been attacking the ruble. They now have to pay additional premiums, so the risk/reward ratio has gone up. Speculators are going to be much warier going forward.俄罗斯央行的最新应对措施是把利率提高到17%。一方面,这样做是为了遏制通胀。另一方面,这直接反击了那些做空卢布的投机者。现在,这些投机者必须付更高的溢价,风险/回报比已经上升。今后,投机者会更加小心。The rise in interest rates mirrors how former U.S. Fed Chair Paul Volcker fought inflation in the U.S. in the early ‘80s. It worked for Volcker, as the U.S. stock market embarked on a historic bull run. The Russians —twhose market has been beaten down during the oil/currency crisis —hare expecting a similar result.俄罗斯提高利率的做法和20世纪80年代初时任美联储主席的保罗o沃尔克应对通胀的方法如出一辙。沃尔克的措施收效良好,并带来了美国股市前所未有的大牛市。在石油与货币危机重创俄罗斯股市的情况下,俄罗斯人期盼着同样的结果。Not that the Russian market is anywhere near as important to that country’s economy as the US’s is to its. Russians don’t play the market like Americans do. There is no Jim Kramerovsky’s Mad Money in Russia.不过,在俄罗斯经济中,股市的重要性远不及美国。俄罗斯人也不像美国人那样炒股。在俄罗斯可没有《Mad Money》那样的投资节目。Russia is not some Zimbabwe-to-be. It’s sitting on a surplus of foreign assets and very healthy foreign exchange reserves of around 5 billion. Moreover, it has a strong debt-to-GDP ratio of just 13% and a large (and steadily growing) stockpile of gold.俄罗斯不会成为津巴布韦。它的经常账户处于盈余状态,外汇储备保持在大约3750亿美元的健康水平。同时,俄罗斯的债务占GDP比率很低,只有13%;而黄金储备充足且保持稳定增长。And there is Russia’s energy relationship with the EU, particularly Germany. Putin showed his clout when he axed the South Stream pipeline and announced that he would run a pipeline through Turkey instead. The cancellation barely lasted long enough to speak it before the EU caved and offered Putin what he needed to get South Stream back on line. Germany is never going to let Turkey be a gatekeeper of European energy security. With winter arriving, the EU’s dependence on Russian oil and gas will take center stage, and the union will become a stabilizing influence on Russia once again.俄罗斯和欧盟在能源方面也有联系,特别是和德国。普京曾强硬的取消了与欧盟合作的南流(South Stream)天然气管道项目,并宣称将取道土耳其另建一条管道。话音未落,欧盟方面就做出让步满足了普京的要求,以确保这个项目重新上马。德国永远也不会让土耳其在欧洲能源安全方面发挥“守门员”的作用。随着冬季临近,欧盟对俄罗斯油气的依赖将成为主导因素,而欧盟将再次为稳定俄罗斯局势而施加影响。In short, while the current situation is not working in Russia’s favor, the country is far from down for the count. It will arrest the ruble’s slide and keep pumping oil. Its economy will contract but not crumble. The harsh reality is that American shale fields have much more to fear from plummeting oil prices than the Russians (or the Saudis), since their costs of production are much higher. Many US shale wells will become uneconomic if oil falls much further. And it they start shutting down, it’ll be disastrous for the American economy, since the growth of the shale industry has underpinned 100% of US economic growth for the past several years.简而言之,尽管当前情况不利,但俄罗斯远未倒下。它将止住卢布的下滑势头并继续开采石油。俄罗斯经济将萎缩,但不会崩盘。而严峻的现实是,面对油价直线下降,生产成本居高的美国页岩油气公司要担心的东西远远超过俄罗斯(或者沙特)。如果油价继续大幅度下跌,美国的许多页岩油井将难以为继。而如果这些油井开始停产,美国经济就会面临灾难,因为这几年美国经济的增长全靠页岩油气行业撑。Those waving their arms about the ruble might do better to look at countries facing real currency crises, like oil-dependent Venezuela and Nigeria, as well as Ukraine. That’s where the serious trouble is going to come.对卢布贬值大惊小怪的人也许更应该看看那些真正面临货币危机的国家,比如高度依赖石油的委内瑞拉和尼日利亚,还有乌克兰。这些才是将要出现大麻烦的地方。(财富中文网) /201412/350631。

  New Music Festival Just Large Empty Field To Do Drugs In新形式音乐节——在空地上吸毒MOUNT STERLING, KY-Declaring the event a rousing success so far, organizers confirmed more than 45,000 people turned out Wednesday for the first annual Cavalcade Folk and Roots Festival, a four-day gathering that consists solely of a big empty field to do drugs in.来自肯塔基州的报道。此次音乐节目前已取得激动人心的成功。主办方确认4.5万人之多于周三参加了首届年度Cavalcade Folk and Roots音乐节,四天聚会,主要内容就是参加的人在一块大空地上吸毒。Held on a farm in the foothills of eastern Kentucky, the festival, which continues through Friday and features no live performances of any kind, reportedly offers ;something for every type of music lover,; specifically a fenced-off, 300-acre pasture in which to consume a broad array of mind-altering substances.该音乐节举办于肯塔基东部一丘陵脚下的农场上,周五还在进行中,其特点是没有任何的现场表演。据报道主办方会给各种喜爱音乐的人士提供一些东西,具体地说就是在这个无围栏,300英亩的草坪上消耗掉大量的能够迷乱心智的药物。;We thought it#39;d be awesome to host a festival that would attract people from all over the country who just want to kick back and ingest narcotics for 96 hours straight,; festival organizer Randy Felder said of the event that takes place on a barren expanse of land with no stages, sound equipment, lighting, art, or vendors. ;Cavalcade is all about creating a venue where live music fans can come together, hang out, and do what they love most.我们觉得举办这种形式的音乐节去吸引全国各地的人是很棒的一件事。他们能通过吸食麻醉毒品来好好的休息96个小时。音乐节主办方Randy Felder这样描述这次聚会,一次举办在一片空旷土地上的音乐节,没有舞台音响设备,更别说灯光,美术,甚至连商贩都没有。Cavalcade纯粹就是为那些音乐迷的聚会提供一个场地,他们可以在那里闲逛,喜欢做什么都可以。;And you couldn#39;t ask for a better spot,; Felder added. ;I mean, it rained pretty hard yesterday, but people didn#39;t let it bring them down. A lot of them didn#39;t even seem to notice.;;但你不能去要求一个更好的场地;,Felder补充道。我的意思是昨天这里下了一场大雨,但他们的心情似乎丝毫没受什么影响,貌似很多人甚至都没注意到下雨了。Officials reported that while the festival grounds contain no tents or any other form of shelter against the elements, ticket holders nonetheless came out in droves to the vast, otherwise deserted meadow to enjoy a number of big-name drugs, including marijuana, cocaine, and heroin, as well as a wide variety of less well-known substances and up-and-coming hallucinogens such as salvia, ayahuasca, ketamine, and several dozen improvised inhalants.官方报道此次音乐节场地没有任何应对恶劣天气的措施,没有帐篷,没有其他任何的遮蔽工具,尽管如此音乐迷们还是陆陆续续的走进这片荒芜的空地上去享受那些;大名鼎鼎;的毒品。包括大麻,可卡因,海洛因等。还包括其他大量不知名的毒品,以及那些即将变得受欢迎的迷幻剂如鼠尾草,死藤水,克他命和一些批量包装的临时准备的吸入剂。译文属 /201506/378695

  

  Inflated Chinese export data are back.中国再度出现虚报出口数据现象。The ruse of puffed-up export invoices to convert extra foreign currency into renminbi is on the rise again, casting doubt on recent strong export data.虚报出口发票、以把更多外币兑换成人民币的手法再次盛行,令中国近来强劲的出口数据招致怀疑。Chinese exports hit a high of 4bn in September, well ahead of forecasts. Growth of 15.3 per cent from a year earlier was also the swiftest pace in 20 months.今年9月,中国出口额达到2140亿美元,远胜预期,同比增速达15.3%,也是20个月内最快的一次。That looked like good news for an economy where fixed-asset investment, traditionally the biggest growth driver, is slowing on the back of a weak property market.这对中国经济来说似乎是好消息。在房地产市场疲弱的背景下,传统上最强大的增长推动因素——固定资产投资已开始放缓。But economists warn that true export demand may be weaker than meets the eye.但经济学家们警告称,真实出口需求可能比人们眼中看到的更为疲弱。The gap between Chinese exports to Hong Kong and Hong Kong imports from China – theoretically two sides of the same coin and based on customs data from the two jurisdictions – rose sharply in September.9月,中国内地对香港出口与香港从中国内地进口之间的差距大幅升高。在理论上,这两者是同一枚硬币的正反两面,是基于两地的海关数据得出的。For analysts, that suggests Chinese exporters are again using phantom exports to Hong Kong as a means to skirt the country’s strict capital controls and bring in foreign money.在分析师看来,这说明中国出口商又开始通过虚构对香港出口,来绕开该国严格的资本管制、把外国资金带入境内。“The apparent re-emergence of over-invoicing strengthens our view that China’s September export data do not herald strong sustained actual export growth,” wrote Louis Kujis, chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland.“虚构出口发票做法明显再度增多,让我们更坚定地认识到,中国9月的出口数据并不预示该国实际出口会保持强劲增速,”苏格兰皇家(RBS)首席经济学家高路易(Louis Kuijs)写道。Inflated export invoices has long been an issue in China. The Chinese currency is freely convertible for trade purposes, but investment flows remain tightly controlled. The lure of higher interest rates, as well as a steadily rising currency, creates an incentive to circumvent these controls. Disguising hot money inflows as trade has long been the most common technique.虚报出口发票是中国的一个老问题。中国货币仅在用于贸易时才可以自由兑换,但用作投资时仍受到严格管制。人民币利率更高且处于稳步升值通道,吸引一些人逃过这些管制,最常用的办法就是把热钱伪装成出口收入、带入中国境内。Such activity died down earlier this year, as the central bank engineered a weakening of the Chinese currency and the foreign exchange regulator launched a crackdown on illicit flows今年早些时候,中国央行策划了一次人民币贬值,外汇管理机构也发起了打击非法资金流的行动,使得这一做法逐渐减少。But the renminbi has come storming back in recent months, hitting an eight-month high on Wednesday. The world-beating performance of the Shanghai equity market in recent months has provided an additional enticement.但近几个月来,人民币汇率有所反弹,周三曾创下8个月高点。近几个月上海股市行情好过其它全球股市,也使人民币产生了额外的吸引力。Economists say that this time companies seem to be using new methods to skirt capital controls. Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics notes that Chinese imports also appeared inflated in September, judging by the gap between Chinese and South Korean data on Chinese imports from South Korea.经济学家表示,这一次,企业似乎开始用新办法绕开资本管制。凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的朱利安#8226;埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)指出,9月中国的进口额似乎也有虚报,从中韩两国各自公布的中国从韩国进口数据的差距中可以看出这一点。“That both imports and exports surged in tandem suggests firms are ‘round-tripping’ – importing a good and then re-exporting it to a related party at a mark-up to bring money into the country,” Mr Evans-Pritchard wrote this week.“中国进口与出口同时猛增,表明企业在使用‘往返套利’手法——即进口一种商品,然后标高价格、把它出口给一个关联方,由此把资金带入境内,”埃文斯-普里查德本周写道。“We … don’t have a strong explanation for why firms are going to the trouble of importing from Korea rather than Hong Kong. Our best guess is that, as authorities have cracked down on fake invoicing, firms have had to become more creative in how they game the system.”“我们……对于企业为何舍近求远地从韩国而不是香港进口,找不到有说力的理由。我们最合理的猜测是,由于当局一直打击虚报出口发票,企业不得不在如何利用体制漏洞上变得更有想象力。”Wang Tao of UBS estimates that after correcting for over-invoicing, trade growth in the third quarter was only 11 per cent, compared with 13 per cent growth shown in official Chinese data.瑞银(UBS)的汪涛估计,对发票虚报部分调整之后,中国三季度的贸易增幅仅为11%,而不是官方数据中所显示的13%。That suggests that much like consumption, Chinese exports are in decent shape but will not be enough to arrest China’s investment-led slowdown.这表明,跟消费大体相似,中国出口虽然不错,但将不足以阻止中国投资导致的增长放缓趋势。 /201410/339238

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