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来源:周面诊    发布时间:2019年06月18日 22:48:10    编辑:admin         

The perils of forecasting the Chinese agricultural market came to the fore earlier this month when the US Department of Agriculture slashed its predictions for Chinese corn imports.本月早些时候,对中国农产品市场的风险预测得到了验,美国农业部(USDA)大幅下调了其对中国玉米进口的预测。Last year, the USDA reckoned China was set to become the largest importer of grain. But mounting evidence of rising inventories and falling demand triggered a rethink and it has dramatically cut its forecasts. Last year’s long-term import forecast of 22m tonnes for 2023/24 has been reduced to just 6.5m.去年,美国农业部估计,中国将成为全球最大玉米进口国。但越来越多的据显示,中国库存增加和需求下滑,促使美国农业部改变想法,并大幅下调了其预测。去年,美国农业部对2023/24年度中国玉米进口的长期预测为2200万吨,如今已被下调至区区650万吨。“The whole picture has really changed over the past 18 months or so,” said Fred Gale, senior economist at the USDA’s economic research service.美国农业部经济研究局高级经济学家弗雷德#8226;盖尔(Fred Gale)表示:“过去18个月左右,整体状况确实发生了变化。”Stronger demand for overseas, especially US, corn in 2011 and 2012, saw analysts both inside and outside China predict the country would become a net importer of the grain, which is mainly used for livestock and poultry feed and processed foods.2011年和2012年中国对海外(特别是美国)玉米的需求上升,使得中国国内外分析人士都预测,中国将成为玉米净进口国。玉米主要用做牲畜和家禽饲料以及加工食品。So what happened?那么发生了什么?After record crops in 2012 and 2013, and an abrupt drop off in consumption, China has found itself with a huge corn stockpile.在2012年和2013年产量创下纪录后,消费突然下滑,中国发现本国出现大量玉米库存。“It could take years for China to dispose of such large surpluses,” says the USDA in its latest report on the country’s agricultural imports.美国农业部在有关中国农产品进口的最新报告中称:“中国可能需要数年来消化如此大规模的过剩库存。”Apart from the favourable weather, the story behind the rise in Chinese inventories will be familiar to traders in sugar and cotton. Beijing’s farmer support policies mean a higher support price for corn compared with international prices. Not only does it encourage domestic production but also purchases of cheap imports as global grain prices plunged.除了气候条件有利之外,中国玉米库存上升的内情与糖和棉花一样,糖和棉花贸易商对此相当熟悉。中国农业补贴政策意味着,与国际价格相比,中国玉米价格更高。这不仅鼓励了国内生产,还促使中国在全球粮价下挫之际购买廉价进口玉米。Reserves also ballooned as authorities bought domestic corn to support the market during the 2013/14 crop year, raising official corn stocks to 100m tonnes, about half of the country’s annual consumption.2013/14作物年度期间,随着中国政府购买国产玉米撑玉米市场,玉米储备也随之增加。官方玉米库存升至1亿吨,约占中国年度消费量的一半。Another factor has been a surge in Chinese imports of sorghum and barley, a corn substitute, says Mr Gale. Sorghum and barley — which have no import as unlike other grains — jumped to 11.5m tonnes in the 2014/15 crop year from 1.7m in 2010/11, according to USDA data.盖尔表示,另一个因素是中国高粱和大麦(都是玉米替代品)的进口飙升。根据美国农业部的数据,2014/15作物年度,高粱和大麦(与其他粮食不同,没有进口配额限制)进口量从2010/11年度的170万吨飙升至1150万吨。Although authorities placed 63m tonnes of corn through auctions to try to reduce its stockpile, only 25m tonnes were purchased, says the USDA. In spite of this, Beijing has announced that it would buy corn from the 2014 harvest to support prices. Current stock levels for corn are at a 14-year high.美国农业部表示,尽管中国政府为减少库存拍卖6300万吨玉米,但成交量只有2500万吨。即便如此,中国政府仍宣布将收购2014年收获的玉米,以撑价格。目前的玉米库存为14年以来的高点。Even when China does eventually turn to imports, it is likely to try to keep this to the minimum. Government officials view agricultural imports as unavoidable but also appear to distrust international markets, according to the USDA report.尽管中国最终仍会转向玉米进口,但中国可能会努力将进口量降至最低。根据美国农业部的报告,中国政府官员将农产品进口视为不可避免之举,但似乎不相信国际市场。“The food security strategy is strongly influenced by the perceived dominance of imports and foreign companies in China’s soyabean industry, which has been described as a potential threat to the country’s soyabean supply,” it says.报告称:“在中国大豆行业,进口产品以及外资企业明显占主导地位,这强烈影响着食品安全战略,这些被视为中国大豆供应的潜在威胁。”This stance helps explain China’s actions over food trade over the past few years. First, it has diversified food import sources in order to give the country’s importers greater price negotiating power as well as reduce risks from a potential trade embargo. For example, China’s authorities opened up its market to corn from Argentina and Ukraine in 2012 as imports from the US began increasing.这种态度有助于解释过去几年中国在食品贸易方面的举措。为了赋予中国进口商更大的价格谈判权,同时降低可能的贸易禁运的风险,中国对食品进口来源实现了多样化。例如,2012年,随着来自美国的进口玉米的增加,中国政府向产自阿根廷和乌克兰的玉米开放了市场。Second, China is looking to gain greater control over its agricultural import supply chains through overseas investments. The move by COFCO — or China National Cereals, Oil and Foodstuffs Corp — where the state-owned group took a stake in an agriculture joint venture with Noble Group, and separately purchased a controlling stake in Dutch agricultural trading house Nidera, seems to follow that strategy.其次,中国指望通过海外投资获得对其农产品进口供应链获得更大控制。国有企业中粮(COFCO)与来宝集团(Noble Group)组建了一家农业合资公司,另外还购入荷兰农产品贸易集团Nidera的控股权,这些举措似乎是在遵循上述战略。A rise in overseas investments will offer a larger share of profits for Chinese companies, establish reliable supplies for the domestic market, and gain more influence over international prices, says the report.报告称,扩大海外投资将让中国企业获得更多利润、为国内市场取得可靠供应,并对国际价格施加更大影响。 /201503/361991。

“I bet you think we’re crazy,” said Jean-Guillaume Prats ruefully. The CEO in charge of LVMH’s project to make the best wine in China was looking at the rudimentary building site – many a hairpin bend above the Mekong River and four hours’ white-knuckle drive from the nearest airport – that will be Mo#235;t Hennessy’s winery and guest lodge. Tibetan women were working with pulleys and wheelbarrows. The electricity supply was far from reliable. We were at an altitude about 20 times higher than the highest vineyard in Bordeaux. Prats then resumed his interrogation of Stephen Deng, the estate director, as to whether the buildings could really be y in time for the scheduled opening in September.“我敢说你们肯定觉得我们脑子进水了,”让-纪尧姆#8226;普拉(Jean-Guillaume Prats)苦笑着说。这位在中国负责为路威酩轩(LVMH)酿造顶级葡萄酒的CEO眺望着开工不久的建筑工地,那儿将成为酩悦轩尼诗(Mo#235;t Hennessy)的酿酒厂与客栈所在地。若要抵达那儿,得绕过澜沧江(Mekong River,出中国国境后叫湄公河)河谷上的诸多险弯,到最近的机场需要4个小时心惊肉跳的车程。藏族妇女正用滑轮与独轮手推车在工地上忙碌着。这儿时常停电,我们所处的海拔约是波尔多地势最高葡萄园的20倍之多。而后普拉继续问酒庄总经理邓思迪(Stephen Deng):所有建筑是否能赶在今年9月份酒庄正式开张前完工。If they are not, it is Deng who stands to lose most face. While Bordelais Maxence Dulou is in charge of the vines and wines, Deng has to keep local government and other relevant bodies, all 23 of them, happy. On the day of our visit he was suddenly called away to meet a representative of one of them to reassure him that the project would indeed bring great prestige to this remote corner of the Himalayan foothills in Deqin county in Diqing prefecture, at the western limit of the province of Yunnan, 35km from Tibet’s border.如若不能按期完工,届时大失颜面的将是邓思迪。尽管杜鲁(Bordelais Maxence Dulou)是酒庄总管,但邓思迪得负责协调好与当地政府及相关机构(总共有23家之多)之间的关系。就在我们参观工地的那天,他突然又被叫走,去会见政府机构的一位代表,旨在给对方吃定心丸:这个合作项目的确会大大提升喜马拉雅山麓(Himalayan)这个偏僻旮旯地区的知名度。这儿是云南省最西部的迪庆州德钦县(Deqin county in Diqing prefecture),距离西藏自治区地界只有35公里。The story begins with a conundrum. China has a burgeoning future as a wine producer and consumer but all Chinese wine regions have one major disadvantage. They are either, like Shandong on the east coast, so wet in summer that it is a struggle to harvest fully ripe, healthy grapes – or they are so cold in winter, like Ningxia, where Mo#235;t Hennessy recently established a sparkling wine operation, that the vines have to be laboriously buried every autumn to protect them from freezing to death. Quite apart from the damage it can do to vines, the continuing urbanisation of China suggests that eventually this may become rather expensive. It was the fact that Yunnan is free of both these disadvantages that led me to ask Mo#235;t if I could come and see for myself.双方的合作项目始于一个复杂难解的问题。中国正飞速成为葡萄酒生产与消费大国,但中国所有的葡萄酒产区都有一大劣势——不是夏天太过湿热就是冬天太过寒冷。前者如东部沿海的山东省(Shandong),每到夏天就必须争分夺秒地收获熟透的葡萄;后者则如宁夏(酩悦轩尼诗最近刚在此建起了起泡酒厂),每到秋天就得费尽周折地埋藤,以防冻死。除了气候对葡萄树造成的破坏外,中国如火如荼的城市化进程表明葡萄酒最终可能会成本昂贵。很显然,云南没有上述两大劣势,所以我请求酩悦集团:自己能否去实地考察。Mo#235;t Hennessy had bought a producer of the Chinese spirit baijiu in 2007 and went on to see China become their most lucrative market overall. Thus they learnt how to operate joint ventures there and were keen to deepen their involvement in China’s famous thirst for alcoholic drinks. Accordingly, they gave Dr Tony Jordan, a wine scientist who had just stepped back from full-time responsibility for their Australian and New Zealand operations, four years to find a place where they stood the best chance of making world-class red wine. Jordan was keen to avoid the winter freeze problem and recommended the low-latitude-plus-high-altitude combination that has proved so successful for them in Argentina, which he eventually found in these tiny villages with a few vineyards in the far west of Yunnan. He narrowed down his search to the southwest after talking to China’s top wine academics and painstaking climate analysis.酩悦轩尼诗集团于2007年买下了一家中国白酒厂,进而看到中国成为了公司最为赢利的市场。集团因而学会了如何创建合资葡萄酒厂,并且希望能不断深入开拓中国市场,满足其国民对于酒类产品的狂热需求。于是,集团给予刚从澳新市场全权负责人位置上退居二线的葡萄酒专家托尼#8226;乔丹士(Dr Tony Jordan) 4年时间,请他找寻一块能酿制出顶级红葡萄酒的地方。乔丹士希望能解决葡萄树冬天受冻的问题,于是推荐了低纬度与高海拔并举的办法(此法在阿根廷已大获成功),他最后找到了云南最西部种着少量葡萄树的这几个小村庄。他是与中国顶级的葡萄酒专家接洽、自己又做了艰苦仔细的气候分析后,才把搜寻目标缩小至中国的西南边陲。From 1999 the local government had encouraged the Tibetan farmers here to switch from barley to vines on the few terraces flat enough for cultivation in the narrow upper Mekong and Yangtse Valleys, as part of a programme to develop remote parts of China. According to Deng, “The Deqin government persuaded some local farmers to plant 150 hectares of Cabernet Sauvignon, using subsidies to farmers as an economic incentive.” A winery named after the old Tibetan town of Shangri-La, which had previously focused on the very different liquid that is Tibetan barley wine, was persuaded to process the grapes in exchange for being granted a monopoly on all Yunnan grapes. (There is one exception to the monopoly: the Sun Spirit estate run by a local mining magnate a few miles downriver of the Mo#235;t project, whose sweet red and white wines fetch quite high prices in Beijing.) As so often, it was missionaries, French in this case, who originally brought the vine to the region, here a non-vinifera variety called Rose Honey that is still made into distinctly odd sweet reds by the province’s only other winery, Yunnan Red.从1999年起,作为开发中国偏僻落后地区计划的一部分,当地政府就鼓励藏族农户在澜沧江与金沙江上游的狭窄河谷(Yangtse Valleys)中少量平坦坡地上改种葡萄(而非原先的大麦)。邓思迪说,“德钦县政府把农业补贴当作经济激励进行派发,成功说当地藏民种植了150公顷的赤霞珠(Cabernet Sauvignon)葡萄。”政府说香格里拉酒厂(Shangri-La,名字取自藏族古镇香格里拉,原先主要酿造截然不同的藏式大麦酒)改酿葡萄酒,条件是垄断云南境内全部葡萄的酿制权。(只有一个例外:顺着澜沧江河谷、距离酩悦合资酒庄几英里远的地方,当地矿业巨头经营的Sun Spirit酒庄,酿造的甜红与甜白葡萄酒在北京卖出了高价。)中国的葡萄酒酿制业通常由传教士传入,云南的葡萄种植最初则是由法国传教士引进来,如今这儿仍种着一种名为玫瑰蜜(Rose Honey)的非酿酒用葡萄,云南另外一家葡萄酒厂——云南红葡萄酒厂(Yunnan Red)——则把它酿制成了特甜红葡萄酒。Thanks to the mountainous terrain, the vineyards here are all small and dispersed. After leaving climate sensors in all the villages he thought had potential, and returning to taste grapes during the 2011 and 2012 harvests, Jordan identified four villages he thought stood the greatest chance of growing good-quality grapes. After much negotiation, Mo#235;t have taken a 50-year lease on the four villages and the relevant farmers’ input, making a total of 30 hectares of vines – in no fewer than 320 different blocks. Much of Maxence Dulou’s time is spent liaising with the dozens of farmers involved, persuading them to focus on wine quality rather than grape quantity. Dulou, who has worked in South Africa, Chile and Burgundy, told me: “Tibetans are very good farmers and sometimes find solutions to our practical viticultural problems themselves. They make a very good team and are extremely proficient.”正是由于地处山地,这儿的葡萄园规模小且较为分散。乔丹先把记录气候数据的传感器留在自认为有种植价值的村庄,然后在2011年与2012年葡萄收获季节再回来实地品尝,最终确定了有高品质葡萄种植价值的4座村庄。经过艰苦的谈判,酩悦集团签下了4座村庄土地以及相应劳力为期50年的租用期,葡萄总种植面积达30公顷土地(不少于320块地块)。杜鲁的多数时间都花在了与相关农户的联络上,努力说他们关注葡萄品质而非产量。曾在南非、智利以及法国勃艮第(Burgundy)工作过的杜鲁对我说:“藏族农民十分优秀,有时自己就能解决葡萄栽种的实际问题,他们配合默契,做事高效。”Needless to say, the grapes are virtually all Cabernet, Merlot with a little Chardonnay, as is the unimaginative Chinese norm. But being grown at such high altitudes, between 2,200m and 2,700m, they have skins that have proved usefully thick for the long journey south to the Shangri-La winery where the 2013 grapes were vinified. This year, with luck, they will travel only as far as Adong, the highest village, where the winery and lodge are being built.不用说,实际种植的葡萄品种除了少量霞多丽(Chardonnay)外,几乎都是解百纳(Cabernet)与美乐(Merlot),这往往就是循规蹈矩中国人的通常做法。但在2200米-2700米高海拔地区种出的葡萄皮很厚,完全经得起往南运至香格里拉酒厂(在此酿造2013年产的葡萄)的长途颠簸。幸运的是,今年的葡萄最远只需运至阿东村(Adong),它在4座村庄中海拔最高,如今这儿正在兴建酒厂与客栈。Because Adong and the other three villages are so inaccessible, the winery has been designed to be practical: no fancy computers that may need spare parts or engineers shipped in. To reach it from Shanghai you have to fly three hours to Yunnan’s capital Kunming (where the rail station massacre took place earlier this year), then an hour over the mountains to Shangri-La, then four hours along the twisting road, avoiding fallen rocks and jockeying with trucks carrying Tibetan iron ore into China and pilgrims on their way to Lhasa. Each village is a hair-raising climb on tracks so rough I cannot imagine trucks full of grapes making it but locals must be made of stern stuff.因为阿东村与其它三个村庄交通特别不便,因此酒厂设计务求实用:这儿既没有高档电脑(因为可能需要备件),也无外请工程师。从上海抵达这儿,得先坐3小时的飞机到云南省会城市昆明(Kunming,今年3月昆明火车站发生了新疆维族人发起的屠杀惨案),然后再坐1小时飞机飞越高山抵达香格里拉,最后还得沿着蜿蜒曲折的盘山公路(路上随时得提防滚落的山石、躲闪迎面开来的运载西藏铁矿石的大卡车以及去拉萨(Lhasa)朝拜的信徒)开上4个小时车。通往4个高原村庄的道路都是既陡又差,坐在车上不禁让人毛骨悚然,因此我实在无法想象满载葡萄的卡车如何成功运到酒厂,看来本地藏人定是由特种材料做就,否则难以解释这一切。Adong is relatively lively, with people sitting outside the village café under flapping prayer flags, playing cards and waving as we passed in two white Land Cruisers. We also visited Shuori, the village thought to have the greatest potential for quality grapes. Mo#235;t has leased every vine they could get their hands on in this extraordinary settlement. There was no one to be seen and no sounds other than fast-flowing water and the hum of insects. Even though the vineyards were surrounded by substantial houses, all we saw were butterflies, walnut trees and promising, well-tended vines awaiting their spring growth. Perhaps the Shuorians were all off gathering mushrooms: Dulou has to vie with the profusion of funghi in these mountains when trying to recruit for the vineyards.阿东村还算热闹,几个村民正坐在飘舞经幡柱下的村咖啡屋外打牌,看到我们乘坐的两辆丰田白色陆地巡洋舰(Land Cruiser)经过时,还向我们挥手示意。我们还造访了Shuori村,据信这儿最适合种植优质葡萄。在这片不同凡响的净土世界,酩悦集团把能搞到的每一棵葡萄树悉数租下。除了湍急的河水与昆虫的低鸣声外,这儿不见一人,万籁俱寂。虽然葡萄园四周都是结实的房屋,但我们只看到飞舞的蝴蝶、核桃树以及经过悉心打理、长势喜人的葡萄园。Shuori村民或许都已到山上去采摘蘑菇:杜鲁商讨葡萄园租赁事宜时,还得力阻村民采摘漫山遍野的蘑菇。Although the nights in the mountains are cool, the upper reaches of the Mekong Valley have similar summer temperatures to Bordeaux. They are so protected from the cold and monsoons that affect Yunnan to the east that summer rainfall is only about two-thirds that of Bordeaux. But there is no shortage of potential irrigation water in terrain that is dramatically overlooked by the snow-covered Himalayas. Autumns are also drier, so grapes can be left to ripen on the vines longer. This will probably make up for the fact that, in such narrow valleys, the vines are in sunshine for fewer hours per day. And in the dry mountain air they are plagued by fewer pests and diseases than in Bordeaux.尽管山里夜晚气温很凉,但在夏季,澜沧江上游河谷地段的气温类似于法国的波尔多地区。影响云南东部地区的寒冷气候与季风无法到达此处,因此这儿的夏季降雨量只有波尔多地区的大约三分之二。但这儿的坡地并不缺少灌溉用水,因为它们四周就是高耸入云、白雪皑皑喜马拉雅山。秋季也很干燥,因此成熟的葡萄可在树上保存更长时间。这或许可以弥补以下缺憾:在如此狭窄的山谷地带,葡萄树每天的日照时间十分有限。在山区的干燥空气中,相比波尔多地区,葡萄树更少受到虫害的侵袭。There are advantages to the somewhat unlikely big company connection. Dulou’s chief viticulturist had just returned from a study trip to Mo#235;t’s Argentine operation Terrazas de los Andes. And when it came to making the trial vinifications of the first, 2013 vintage, Dulou was able to use the neutral earthenware jars traditionally employed by the company’s baijiu producer in Chengdu – once he had invented special floating lids for them that would keep harmful oxygen out of the wine to be fermented.大公司强强联合(从某种程度说不太可能)具有明显优势。杜鲁的首席葡萄栽培师刚从酩悦位于阿根廷的安地斯之阶酒庄(Terrazas de los Andes)考察回来。试酿首批葡萄酒(即2013年份酒)时,杜鲁在发明了隔绝氧气、防止酒发酵的特制浮动盖子后,使用中性陶罐(原先用于公司在成都的白酒酿造厂)来酿制葡萄酒。I tasted six lots of these experimental 2013 reds and was very impressed by five of them – quite an achievement since only a few days before I had tasted 53 of China’s better wines. They are first and foremost mountain wines, with the dense colour and vivid, finely etched flavours that you find in the high-altitude wines of Argentina or even in the best of Spain’s Ribera del Duero wines grown at a mere 300m or 400m. But the most exciting thing for me was that the oak influence on most of the samples was minimal. I tasted wines influenced by the pure vineyard characters, fully ripe but well balanced with real, confident, unique personalities of their own.我品尝了6种试酿的2013年红葡萄酒,对其中的5种印象深刻——这是相当了不起的成就,因为就在几天前,我刚品了中国的53款上乘葡萄酒。这6款葡萄酒首先是货真价实的山区酒——颜色浓稠,而且具有阿根廷高海拔葡萄酒那种精心酿制的醇厚味,甚至可以与西班牙海拔300-400米杜罗河区(Ribera del Duero)酿制的美酒相媲美。但最动人心魄的莫过于橡木塞对样酒的影响微乎其微。我品鉴的美酒混然天成——不但葡萄自然长熟,而且与率真、自信以及独特个性的酿酒师珠联璧合。The project has no name yet, nor a definite launch date. No decision has been taken as to whether to launch with the experimental 2013s or to wait for the 2014s in which the Shangri-La winery will be involved as a transactional intermediary only, thanks to that monopoly agreement. But Dulou wants to retain at least some earthenware jar influence, as being a distinctly local ingredient. Not that in a landscape like this, both natural and human, there is any shortage of distinctive local character.这个合作酒庄目前还未取名,也未定推出葡萄酒的确切日期。是推出2013年试酿的酒,还是静等2014年酿出的酒(根据双方签订的垄断协议,香格里拉酿酒厂将是唯一的中间加工厂),目前还不得而知。但杜鲁希望葡萄酒味至少能留有一丝陶罐酿制的影响,使它具有更独特的本地元素。当然,产自这样一个自然风光与人文气息浓厚的地区,这酒最不缺的就是地方风情了。 /201407/309859。

Wu Xuesong, a professor in this city on the Yangtze, says he doubled his money on an apartment he bought as an investment some years back and is ahead on a second. 常州是长江边上的一座城市。吴雪松(音)是这座城市里的一名教授,他说他作为投资几年前买下的一套公寓的价值已经翻了一番,现在第二套房也升值了。Buy a third? Forget it. 还要买第三套吗?算了吧。Mr. Wu slides open a dining-room window and points to the dark shadow of a new apartment complex, where only a handful of lights are on. #39;No one lives there,#39; he says. #39;That shatters my confidence#39; in China#39;s long-thriving real-estate market. 吴雪松打开了餐厅的一扇窗户,用手指着一个黑黢黢的新建住宅小区,那里只有几盏灯亮着。“没人住,”他说,“我的信心破灭了。”他不再相信中国的房地产市场会长盛不衰。Economists have worried for years that China is setting itself up for a housing-market bust. In big international cities like Beijing and Shanghai, prices continue to rise. But evidence is mounting that in dozens of third- and fourth-tier Chinese cities rarely visited by foreigners, overbuilding is out of control and a major property-market slowdown is now under way. Tim Franco for The Wall Street Journal图片:中国小城的楼市寒冬数年来,经济学家们一直担心中国的房地产市场终将崩盘。在北京和上海这样的国际化城市,房价还在继续上涨。但在很少有外国人到访的三四线城市,有越来越多的据表明,过度建设已经失控,房地产市场增速已出现大幅放缓。The 200 or so Chinese cities with populations ranging from 500,000 to several million account for 70% of the country#39;s residential-property sales. In many of these cities, developers are slashing prices and offering freebies such as kitchen furnishings and parking spaces as they try to work through vast gluts of unsold property. Protests are breaking out among buyers angry that their investments are losing value. 在中国,人口数量在50万到数百万之间的城市的数量约有200个,这些城市的住房销售量占了全国住房销售量的70%。在很多这样的城市,开发商通过大幅降价、赠送厨房装修或停车位等方式试图消化大量的未售出存量房。一些购房者因为自己的投资贬值还开始组织抗议。Data in some of these smaller cities is scarce. But in 100 cities tracked by Nomura Holdings Inc., 42% of those classified as Tier 3 and Tier 4 saw housing prices decline in March from February. Home construction in such cities is racing well ahead of population growth, says Beijing research firm Gavekal Dragonomics, as developers continue to build new projects without buyers. 这样一些规模较小的城市的相关数据很匮乏。但在野村控股(Nomura Holdings Inc.)追踪的100个城市当中,从2月份到3月份,被归类为三四线的城市中有42%的城市房价下降。北京研究公司龙洲经讯(Gavekal Dragonomics)称,在这些城市中,住房建设速度远远高于人口增长速度,开发商不断开建新项目,但却没人来买。A dramatic housing collapse such as the U.S. suffered a few years ago isn#39;t thought likely here. Chinese families don#39;t borrow as heavily for home buying as Americans, putting at least 30% down. China doesn#39;t have sketchy mortgages like those that infected the U.S. market at its peak, nor home-equity loans that let owners finance shopping sprees on the value of their homes. Chinese financiers haven#39;t put together arcane mortgage-backed securities such as those that blew up in the U.S. 人们认为,中国不太可能像几年前的美国一样出现住房价格大幅下跌的情形。中国家庭不像美国家庭那样,在买房的时候大量依靠贷款,而是至少要先付30%的首付。中国市场不像美国市场在高峰时期那样充斥着低质量抵押贷款,也没有房屋净值贷款(房屋所有者以自己房屋的净值为抵押获得这种贷款后就可以大举购物)。中国的金融界人士也没有炮制出复杂的抵押贷款持券,而这类券在美国引发了金融危机。Yet even with market strength holding up in the most prominent cities, the overall value of Chinese housing sold in the first two months of 2014 declined 5% from a year earlier, government statistics show. Private-sector data indicate the decline continued in March. 然而中国政府的统计数字显示,虽然多数主要城市的房地产市场依然强劲,但2014年前两个月中国的整体房屋销售额较上年同期下降5%。私人部门机构发布的数据显示,中国3月份的房屋销售额继续下降。Price drops might seem a normal market response to oversupply, but when it comes to housing, the phenomenon isn#39;t benign. China increasingly depends on real estate to drive growth. 价格下跌看似是对供应过剩的一种正常市场反应,但对住房市场来说不是一个好现象。中国经济增长对房地产的依赖越来越大。The construction, sale and outfitting of apartments accounted for 23% of China#39;s gross domestic product in 2013, Moody#39;s Analytics calculates. That is up steeply from 10% in 2006 and is higher than American housing#39;s share of GDP reached during the height of the U.S. housing boom in 2006, Moody#39;s says. 根据Moody#39;s Analytics的计算,2013年,中国公寓住宅的建筑、销售以及装备所涉及的经济活动占当年国内生产总值(GDP)的比重达23%。穆迪(Moody#39;s)称,这一比例远高于2006年的10%,也高于美国住房市场在2006年达到顶峰时所占美国GDP的比重。The housing troubles add to other headaches for the world#39;s second-largest economy. They come at a time when debt in China is climbing as rapidly as it was in the U.S., Europe, Japan and South Korea before their economies cratered in years past. And China#39;s growth, while still healthy by world standards, has slowed to its weakest since the Asia financial crisis of the late 1990s, amid less-robust demand both at home and abroad for Chinese goods. 除了住房市场,中国经济目前还面临其他领域的问题。中国当前的债务正在以美国、欧洲、日本和韩国经济遭遇经济危机前的速度上升。除此以外,虽然从世界标准来看中国经济的增长情况依然健康,但在国内外对中国产品需求下降的背景下,中国经济增速已降至上世纪九十年代末亚洲金融危机爆发以来的最低水平。Chinese state television aired a series this month on difficulties faced by home buyers and property developers. An owner in Shenmu County, in the north, said she couldn#39;t afford to pay the mortgage on her apartment but couldn#39;t sell it, either, because so many others were for sale. 中国国家电视台本月播出了一个系列讲述购房者和房地产开发商所面临困境的节目。 西省神木县的一位房主称,她无力偿还抵押贷款,但房子也卖不出去,因为市场上有很多房子在出售。The finances of some cities and developers are being affected. China#39;s local governments depend on land sales to developers for about 40% of their revenue. Now those sales are bringing in less cash. 一些城市和开发商的财务状况正在受到影响。中国地方政府收入的40%左右来自于土地出让款,但现在靠出售土地获得的收入变少了。After the city of Fenghua in eastern China cut the price of land, developer Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. -- which had incurred higher land costs -- found it tough to sell apartments and make payments on its debt, which the city website put at nearly 0 million. Municipal officials say they are trying to stave off a bankruptcy by the developer that could tarnish the city#39;s reputation. Principals of the developer couldn#39;t be reached for comment. 中国东部城市奉化下调了地价以后,之前一直承担着高昂地价的地产商浙江兴润置业投资有限公司(Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co.)发现难以卖出房子、偿付债务。奉化市网站公布,该公司的欠款已经接近6亿美元。奉化官员说,他们正想办法避免兴润置业破产,以免伤及奉化市的声誉。记者无法联系到兴润置业负责人就此置评。As developers grow short of money, some are using apartments instead of cash to pay their bills to construction companies. Anne Stevenson-Yang, research director at J Capital Research in Beijing, who crisscrosses China checking out property developments, sums up the real-estate market in China#39;s smaller cities #39;an incredible house of cards.#39; 相关报道客:有关中国楼市供应过剩的问与答客:营口房地产市场冷过冬天客:谁会点燃中国经济火药桶?由于开发商们手头缺少资金,一些公司用楼房代替现金付给建筑公司。美奇金(北京)投资咨询有限公司(J Capital Research)研究总监杨思安(Anne Stevenson-Yang)总结说,中国中小城市的房地产市场是极其不切实际的空中楼阁。她曾经多次往返中国各地,考察房地产的发展状况。Further weakness could mean trouble for construction companies and appliance and commodity producers. Furniture and appliance sales in China have been slowing along with the weaker pace of apartment sales. Also potentially affected are businesses that use real estate as collateral to get new loans; China#39;s banks rely on property holdings as the main collateral securing loans. 若房地产市场进一步走软,建筑公司、家电企业、大宗商品厂商都可能有麻烦。随着楼市销售速度的下滑,中国的家俱和家电销量也一直在放慢。同样可能受到影响的还有那些利用房地产当做抵押品来获得新贷款的行业。中国的业把房地产作为贷款的重要抵押品。One risk is that consumers who are accustomed to seeing steady gains in their homes#39; value pull back on spending. This is a danger because an unusually high percentage of Chinese household wealth is tied up in real estate -- about two-thirds, estimates economist Li Gan at Texas Aamp;M University. Americans, at the peak of the U.S. housing boom, had only about half that much of their family wealth in real estate. The figure is high in China partly because of few appealing investment alternatives, with the domestic stock market performing poorly for years and interest on savings deposits at banks fixed at a low rate. 一个风险是,习惯于房产稳步升值的中国消费者会捂紧钱袋。这种状况十分危险,因为中国的家庭财富与房地产挂钩的比例高得离谱,根据美国德克萨斯州农工大学(Texas Aamp;M University)经济学家甘犁的估计,房屋价值占中国家庭财富的比例高达三分之二左右。相比之下,美国在楼市泡沫的巅峰时代,房屋价值占美国家庭财富的比例也不过只有一半左右。中国比例如此之高的原因之一就是缺少其他有吸引力的投资项目,中国股市的低迷已经持续多年,存款利率也被定在很低的水平。 Take a drive through China#39;s third- and fourth-tier cities and these issues are all too visible. Many cities are ringed by row after row of empty apartment buildings that reach 20 stories into the sky. At night, they are dark save for blinking red lights on top to warn airplanes. 当你穿梭于中国三、四线城市时,上述问题就显得越发明显。许多城市里都竖起成排成排的20层以上高楼大厦,然而里面空无一人。每到夜间,这些楼房都漆黑一片,只有楼顶上的红灯不停地闪烁,对过往飞机诉说着它们的存在。Analysts have long taken note of Chinese #39;ghost cities#39; -- sprawling new neighborhoods nearly devoid of inhabitants. These have sometimes been seen as anomalies. But over the past few years, building has proceeded at such a blistering pace that Nicole Wong, a real-estate analyst in Hong Kong for CLSA, figures the pace of construction in third- and fourth-tier cities needs to fall by half between 2013 and 2020 to get supply and demand somewhat back in balance. 分析师们注意中国的“鬼城”已经有很长时间了,“鬼城”中高楼接连拔地而起,但几乎没什么人住进去。有时这些“鬼城”被视为反常现象。然而,过去几年中,楼市仍然以这种白热化的速度突飞猛进。里昂券(亚洲)(CLSA)驻香港地产分析师Nicole Wong指出,2013-2020年间,三线、四线城市的建房速度需要下降一半,才能使供求关系稍稍回归平衡状态。In Yingkou, a dusty city of 2.4 million in China#39;s frigid northeast, the only sign of life in one complex of 20-story buildings is a small satellite dish in a first-story window. Zhou Mingqi says he is paid about 0 a month to live there, by owners of three units who want to make sure their properties aren#39;t occupied by squatters or the fixtures stolen. 在中国东北部城市营口市的一个小区,20层楼高的大楼鳞次栉比,然而这里唯一有人居住的迹象就是某个一楼住户窗口有个小型圆盘式卫星天线。周明起(音译)说,有三户业主每月付他290美元(约合人民1,800币元)让他住在这里,他的雇主们希望确保房子不会被非法占住,家俱不会被偷走。这座寒冷、空气也不怎么好的城市里居住着240万人。The project, called Expo Garden, began in 2010 and was supposed to be finished by 2013. As of last month, only eight of the planned 16 towers had been built. A recent visit found grounds with rutted roads, no sign of workers and not even any billboards advertising sales. Tim Franco for The Wall Street Journal图为营口的一个房地产项目。这个楼房项目名叫“世园”(Expo Garden),动工于2010年,本应在2013年竣工。截至上个月,16栋计划建成的高楼中只建起了八栋。最近记者走访该小区时发现,道路上还有车辙痕迹,也没有工人工作的迹象,甚至没有广告销售的宣传板。City officials said the builder temporarily suspended construction because of winter. A representative of the developer, Xizang Zangye Group, said construction would resume in the spring. Other local developers said the city was trying to work out a deal to keep the project alive. 该市官员称建筑公司暂停施工是因进入了冬季停工期。小区开发商西藏藏业集团有限公司(Xizang Zangye Group)的一名代表称工地将在春季恢复施工。当地其他开发商称,该市正试图达成一笔交易以确保该项目能运作下去。In Yingkou, real estate#39;s problems have become the city#39;s as well. Its land-sales revenue has fallen by about 40% in the past three years. 营口市的房地产问题已成为整个城市的问题。过去三年中该市的土地出让收入已减少约40%。China#39;s private real-estate market dates only to the late 1990s, when the Communist Party started to privatize housing owned by state-owned companies. The market went into overdrive in 2009, as Beijing told banks to start lending heavily to spur growth and make sure China wasn#39;t dragged down by the global financial crisis. 中国的私人房地产市场始自上世纪90年代末,当时中共开始对国有企业拥有的住房进行私有化改造。2009年为确保中国免受全球经济危机拖累,中国政府指示大幅放贷刺激增长,致使私人房地产市场加速膨胀。 Around the same time, Beijing tightened restrictions on real-estate purchases in first- and second-tier cities to try to keep prices in those places from skyrocketing too high. (Four cities -- Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen -- are considered first tier, and roughly two dozen second tier.) 与此同时,为防止一、二线城市房产价格涨幅过高,政府收紧了这些地区的购房政策。一线城市是北京、上海、广州和深圳,二线城市有20多座。 The result of the twin policies was that money flowed heavily to medium-size and smaller cities. According to Citigroup, 12 provincial capitals are building an average of nearly 15 #39;new towns#39; each, meaning massive high-rise apartment projects on their outskirts. 上述两项政策叠加在一起,使大量资金涌入中小型城市。据花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)的资料,中国12个省会城市平均建设将近15座“新城”,即在其郊区布设大规模高层住房项目。One level below the provincial capitals, 133 cities that are the capitals of Chinese prefectures are building a total of 200 of these apartment complexes. Several dozen main county cities are doing the same. 省会城市往下一级,有133个区县首府正建造总共200个住宅小区。还有几十个主要的县城也在做着同样的事情。Changzhou -- the place where Prof. Wu has made money on past real-estate buys but now is afraid of the market -- is a textile-exporting city of 3.6 million. When stimulus money started flowing in 2009 and 2010, the city decided on a makeover. Aiming to turn into a producer of advanced materials and high-tech goods, it started building a subway and blocked out a section for higher-end housing. 吴雪松购房所在的常州市是一个拥有约360万户籍人口的纺织业出口型城市。2009、2010年大量资金随刺激政策流入常州,该市决定搞一番大改造,立志成为尖端材料及高科技产品制造中心,并在这一目标的指引下修建地铁,并划出一片区域建造高端住房。But Shanghai is only an hour away by bullet train. People with ambition and money often head to the megacity, crimping housing demand in Changzhou. 但从常州坐高铁到上海只需要一个小时。那些有抱负、也有经济条件的人经常会选择上海这座大城市,从而抑制了常州的住房需求。In the showroom of a cream-colored development of villas and high-rises in Changzhou, four young Ukrainian women in white fur stoles act as greeters. Ball gowns hang in the closets of the marble-filled model apartments. An outdoor swimming pool is decorated with statues of nymphs. Tim Franco for The Wall Street Journal常州一个楼盘的路上能见到的行人不多,图为一位园丁。在常州的一个奶油色别墅和高层建筑开发项目的楼盘展厅里,有四位身披白色皮披肩的年轻乌克兰女子担任迎宾员。在这套到处使用大理石的样板房里,壁橱中悬挂着舞会礼。一个室外游泳池有多个女神雕像作为装饰。It isn#39;t enough to tempt many to buy. There are plenty of other opulent developments nearby. 可这仍不足以吸引许多买家。而就在这附近还有其他大量的豪华住宅项目。#39;If all the developers here stop building right now, there#39;s still enough apartments to last the local and migrant populations for another six to eight years,#39; says a discouraged sales agent. 一位有些泄气的售楼员说,即便这里所有的开发商马上停止建设,也仍有足够的公寓能满足未来六至八年本地和外来人口的需求。Faced with weak sales, the complex#39;s developers publicly slashed apartment prices by 40% in late February. City housing authorities called them in to urge them to be more discreet, according to competitors, who say the city didn#39;t want to get a reputation as a bad place to invest. Agile Property Holdings Ltd., a public company that is developing the project with a privately owned partner, declined to comment. City officials didn#39;t respond to requests for comment. 面对低迷的销售业绩,该项目的开发商在2月末公开将房价下调了40%。这些开发商的竞争对手说,常州市相关部门约谈了这些开发商,希望他们能更加谨慎,因为常州不想承担投资环境不佳的名声。与一家非上市公司合作开发该项目的上市公司雅居乐地产控股有限公司(Agile Property Holdings Ltd., 3383.HK, 简称:雅居乐地产)未就此发表。常州市相关部门的官员也未回应记者的置评请求。The developers kept the discounts but stopped advertising them. 目前,该项目的开发商仍在打折,但已停止了有关减价促销的广告宣传。Other developers felt they had to respond. Nearby, Feilong Road cuts through construction sites filled with unfinished apartment towers that reach as tall as 30 stories. Billboards for one project promise discounts of about 20%. Across the street, another developer offers free parking and about ,000 off the final price. 其他开发商也感到必须做出应对。在该项目附近,飞龙路两旁的建筑工地到处都是未完工的住宅楼,有的住宅楼达到30层高。一个楼盘承诺打折约20%的广告牌随处可见。街对面,另一家开发商承诺提供免费车位并在最终房价中再折让约2.4万美元(约合人民币15万元)。At one project, sales manager Susan Yang says her bosses are considering #39;stealth price cuts#39; -- rebates, of maybe 30% -- that would keep the development competitive without undercutting its high-end image. 一个住宅项目的销售经理Susan Yang说,她的老板正打算“隐性降价”,折扣幅度可能达到30%,这样就可以在不破坏楼盘高端形象的同时保持竞争力。The real-estate oversupply #39;gives me a headache,#39; Ms. Yang says. #39;People expect prices will fall.#39; Susan Yang说,房地产供应过剩的问题让她头疼。她还说,大家都预计房价会下跌。On March 21, protesters lined up in front of Phoenix Lake Gardens, a middle-class complex of 20-story apartment towers in northern Changzhou. They put up banners, trashed architectural models in the showroom and demanded refunds from the developer, Wharf (Holdings) Ltd. Wharf had cut prices by as much as 20% after these protesters bought their apartments, making their purchases suddenly worth less. 凤凰湖墅(Phoenix Lake Gardens)是常州北部的一处楼盘,其20层的高层公寓楼针对的是中产阶层。3月21日,业主聚集在这处楼盘前方。他们举着标语,砸了售楼处的楼盘模型,并要求开发商九龙仓集团有限公司(Wharf (Holdings) Ltd., 简称:九龙仓集团)退款。这些业主购房之后,九龙仓集团把房价下调了20%,导致他们购买的房屋瞬间贬值。David Wan, 25, said he had put ,000 down on a two-bedroom apartment just a week before Wharf cut the price. #39;The salesperson told me that prices wouldn#39;t fall,#39; he said. 25岁的David Wan说,就在九龙仓降价的一周前,他首付40,000美元买了一套两居室。他说,售楼人员当时告诉他楼盘不会跌价。Another buyer said she and her husband sold their hometown residence 100 miles away and borrowed from relatives for a 40% down payment here, only to see the price for similar apartments later slashed. 另一位业主徐女士说,她和丈夫卖掉了100英里(约合160公里)外老家的房子并从亲戚手中借了钱才付了40%的首付,现在却只能看着类似户型价格大跌。The buyer, who would give only her surname, Xu, was especially angry that the developer brought in guards to block the protesters from the showroom. #39;We are their earliest home buyers, and this is how they treat us?#39; she said. 徐女士尤其感到愤怒的是,开发商动用了保安,将抗议的业主挡在了售楼处外。徐女士说自己是他们最早的一批客户,而这就是他们对待老业主的方式?Wharf defends using the guards, who a spokesman said #39;wouldn#39;t touch the customers unless they behaved unreasonably.#39; The company said it cut prices to clear inventory, which it called #39;normal market behavior.#39; 九龙仓集团为动用保安之举进行了辩护。该公司的一位发言人说,除非客户出现不理智的行为,否则公司不会去碰他们。九龙仓集团说,降价是为了清理库存。该公司称这种做法是“正常的市场行为”。A few blocks away at another Wharf project, a police officer tried to explain to a demonstrator the new reality of housing in China. 在几个街区外的另一处九龙仓楼盘,一位警官正试图向一名抗议者解释中国房地产业的新现实。#39;You bought a private home,#39; the policeman told the irate protester. #39;Prices will go up or down. It#39;s just like investing in the stock market.#39; 这位警官对生气的抗议者说:“你买了商品房,价格就会涨跌,这跟股市投资一样。” /201404/288075。