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来源:华龙时讯    发布时间:2019年07月17日 08:59:12    编辑:admin         

It was possibly the most anticipated declaration in US electoral history. Yet, for all the waiting, Hillary Clinton’s presidential launch was notably light on content. In her opening , she said she would hit the road to “earnAmerica’s vote. That struck the right note. The first rule of Mrs Clinton’s second White House bid is that she must avoid giving any hint of entitlement. Beyond that, however, there is little sense of what Mrs Clinton would do if she won the presidency. Unless and until she sets this out, voters will be right to question her motives.这可能是美国选举历史上最令人期待的一份声明了。不过,尽管等了这么久,希拉#8226;克林Hillary Clinton)的启动总统竞选的内容明显有些轻描淡写。她在开场白视频中表示,她将上路“赢得”美国的选票。她这么讲是恰到好处。希拉里第二次向白宫发起冲击的第一条准则,是她必须避免留下任何她有资格的暗示。不过,除此之外,目前还看不出来她如果获胜会如何施政。除非她把这一点阐述明白,选民们将有理由质疑她的动机。The challenge is least steep on foreign policy. A former US secretary of state, Mrs Clinton will be the most experienced potential nominee in either party. Detractors argue that she achieved little of note in her four years in the job. That is unfair. While there are no groundbreaking treaties to which she can point, she helped to put in place President Barack Obama’s welcome course correction from George W Bush’s aggressive unilateralism.挑战最小的是外交政策领域。作为美国前国务卿,在两党中来看希拉里都将是最有经验的潜在候选人。贬低她的人认为,她年任期中基本没有什么可圈可点。这一说法是不公平的。尽管她无法说自己达成了具有突破性的条约,但她帮助总统巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)扭转了小布什(George W Bush)的激进单边主义路线,回到了广为接受的正途。Moreover, it was Mrs Clinton who framed Mr Obama’s “pivot to Asia The logic of this manoeuvre is enduring. Although the turmoil in the Middle East continues, this should not undermine the enhanced US focus on Asia. Mrs Clinton can also claim some credit for the Iran nuclear framework hammered out by John Kerry, her successor, earlier this month. She helped to orchestrate the sanctions that brought Iran to the negotiating table.此外,奥巴马的“亚洲再平衡pivot to Asia)战略正是希拉里制定的。这一动作的逻辑是持久的。尽管中东混乱局势在继续,却不应妨碍美国加强对亚洲的关注。希拉里也可以声称其继任者约#8226;克里(John Kerry)本月早些时候达成的伊朗核协议框架有她的一份功劳。她帮助策划了对伊制裁,才将伊朗拉到了谈判桌前。As the 2016 campaign heats up, Mrs Clinton will be called on to defend Mr Obama’s legacy. She cannot repudiate its basic contours. For political reasons, she will be tempted to distance herself from the Iran deal in order to win the support of the more hawkish pro-Israel lobbyists. She should resist. Assuming it can be finalised, an Iran pact will be very much in America’s national interest. But Mrs Clinton can, and should, signal a greater willingness than Mr Obama to engage the world in more sustained US diplomacy. If she is mildly more hawkish than Mr Obama, that is no sin. Her centrist instincts are broadly aligned with the American public’s mood. As she has let it be known, Mr Obama’s “don’tdo stupid stuffmantra does not amount to a foreign policy doctrine.随着2016年总统竞选活动的升温,希拉里将责无旁贷地捍卫奥巴马的遗产。她不可能批判其基本框架。出于政治原因,她应该抵制住诱惑,远离伊朗协议,以便赢得立场更强硬的亲以色列游说势力的持。假设最终能敲定一份伊朗协议,那么它将非常符合美国的利益。但希拉里可以且应该展现示出,同奥巴马相比,她更愿意通过更具持续性的美国外交与世界互动。如果她的立场比奥巴马更显强硬,那也没什么不对。她偏向中间立场的本能基本上契合美国公众的情绪。正如她让外界知道的,奥巴马的“不做蠢事”原则并不构成一项外交政策信条。Mrs Clinton’s bigger challenge is to convince voters that she will have more luck than Mr Obama in breaking Washington’s gridlock. In terms of substance, there is little to differentiate Mrs Clinton’s promise to revive the fortunes of the squeezed middle from the policies that Mr Obama has failed to push through Congress. Whether it is more infrastructure investment, better worker training, a corporate tax overhaul or early childhood learning, Mr Obama’s priorities are broadly the right ones. Mrs Clinton’s task is to convince voters she can create the “warm purple spacenecessary for bipartisan action. The odds are not good. Fairly, or not, Mrs Clinton is just as polarising a figure as Mr Obama and the electoral map makes it very unlikely the Democrats will regain control of Congress in 2016. Mrs Clinton must somehow explain how she would better navigate a system that has all but broken down.希拉里面临的更大挑战是让选民相信,在打破美国政治僵局方面,她比奥巴马运气奀?本质上而言,希拉里提出的改善受挤压的中产命运的承诺,与奥巴马未能在国会获得通过的政策几乎没有什么差异。不管是扩大基础设施投资、加强员工培训、企业税改革还是儿童早期教育,奥巴马的优先任务基本上都是正确的。希拉里的任务是让选民相信她能够创造一个两党行动所必需的“温暖紫色空间”(“warm purple space”,在美国红色代表共和党,蓝色代表民主党,紫色意味着介于红和蓝之间,即偏中间立场,编者注)。不过她的胜算并不大。不管公平与否,希拉里只是一个与奥巴马一样立场很明确的人物,从目前的选情来看,民主党极不可能016年重新获得国会控制权。希拉里必须用某种方法解释她将如何更好的驾驭这个已几近瓦解的体系。The big difference from 2008 is that Mrs Clinton is a strong favourite to win the Democratic nomination this time. That gives her the luxury of avoiding having to tack too far to the left in order to appeal to the liberal base. Mrs Clinton should use that leeway to prepare a solid general election campaign. Whether her Republican opponent is Jeb Bush, or someone else, the battle ahead is certain to be gruelling. Mrs Clinton is not destined to win. As she said on Sunday, the presidency is a job that must be earned.008年的一个重要不同之处在于,这一次希拉里是一个备受青睐、有望赢得民主党提名的强有力人选。这让她可以不必为了迎合自由派的选民基础而过多的转向左派。希拉里应利用这种自由度制定一个稳健的大选计划。不管她的共和党对手是杰#8226;布什(Jeb Bush)还是其他人,未来的战斗必定艰苦。希拉里并非注定会赢。正如她在上周日所说的,总统职务本就是一份需要去努力争取的工作。来 /201504/369960。

ATHENS As Friday night became Saturday morning, with sidewalk cafes still bustling in central Athens, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras abruptly appeared on national television.雅典——当周五的夜色正在褪去,周六的晨光渐渐来临,雅典市中心的咖啡馆仍在喧闹时,希腊总理亚历克西斯·齐普拉Alexis Tsipras )突然出现在国家电视台上。Mr. Tsipras, only 40, had spent his five months in office locked in increasingly acrimonious negotiations with Greece’s creditors. Belittled by critics, and facing the prospect of default, he was under intense pressure to sign a deal.上任五个月以来,只有40岁的齐普拉斯一直身陷希腊与其债权人之间日益紧张的债务谈判。面对批评人士的贬低和债务违约的可能,他承受着达成协议的巨大压力。Instead, Mr. Tsipras tossed a grenade.出人意料的是,齐普拉斯扔出了一枚手榴弹。With much of Europe sound asleep, Mr. Tsipras stared into the camera and shattered the careful decorum of European Union diplomacy. Declaring that creditors were demanding “strict and humiliating austerity,Mr. Tsipras announced a national referendum on July 5, so voters could decide for themselves.此时,在欧洲大部分地区,人们还在沉睡,齐普拉斯正对镜头,打破了欧盟外交恪守的谨慎礼仪。他表示债权人要求的是“严苛而具侮辱性的紧缩政策”,并宣布希腊将日举行全民公投,让选民自己决定是否接受欧盟的提议。“We should respond to authoritarianism and harsh austerity with democracy, calmly and decisively,Mr. Tsipras said. “Greece, the birthplace of democracy, should send a resounding democratic message to the European and global community.”“我们应该冷静、果断地用民主对抗威权主义和严厉的紧缩政策,”齐普拉斯说道。“希腊是民主政治的摇篮,它应该向欧洲和全球发出响亮的民主之声。”Stunned, his fellow European leaders shut down negotiations, capped the lifeline they had been providing Greece’s banks, angrily denounced him as irresponsible and dishonest with his own people, and not so subtly suggested that Greece needed a new government if it wanted to continue drawing economic help.欧洲其他国家的领导人十分震惊,他们关闭了与希腊的谈判通道,切断了之前一直给希腊提供的生死攸关的援助,愤怒地谴责齐普拉斯此举是对他的人民不负责任和不诚实,而且毫不隐讳地表示,·希腊如果想继续获得欧洲的经济援助,将需要更换新政府。Now, with the Greek crisis posing a threat to the global economy, the sniping started dissipating somewhat on Monday, even as Greece was left coping with a shuttered banking system and new uncertainties about its future. But from Berlin to Brussels to Washington to Athens, the same question permeated discussions about Greece: What kind of game is Mr. Tsipras playing?眼下,希腊债务危机正对全球经济形成威胁,这样的抨击在周一的时候开始有些消散,尽管希腊要独自应对崩溃的系统和不确定的未来。但是从柏林到布鲁塞尔,到华盛顿,再到雅典,有一个问题占据了关于希腊的所有讨论:齐普拉斯到底在玩什么游戏?To some critics, Mr. Tsipras turned to the referendum as a last-ditch play to retain power by stoking a nationalistic response to Greece’s standoff with its creditors. To others, he was a study in ideological conviction, admired by some of his supporters but scoffed at by others, who predicted potentially disastrous consequences for his own people.有批评者认为,齐普拉斯诉诸公投是要煽动针对希腊债务谈判僵局的极端民族主义情绪,是为保留自身权力而进行的孤注一掷。有的则认为,他是一个意识形态信念的化身,被一些持者赞赏,同时又被另一些人嘲笑,他们预测他给希腊人民带来的后果可能是灾难性的。But there was also a case to be made that, by accident or design, he had actually succeeded in intensifying the crisis in a way that could provide him with additional leverage should negotiations get back on track, as the ed States and some European leaders urged on Monday.但是,不管是有意还是无意,这也说明,他已经在某种程度上成功地加剧了危机,因此一旦谈判(如周一美国和一些欧洲领导人敦促的那样)回到正轨,他手上就有了更多的筹码。Whether that is possible given the mistrust on both sides remains to be seen. For now, Mr. Tsipras’s tactic remains, if nothing else, an audacious maneuver, defining him as a rare unpredictable force among European Union leaders, while also focusing new attention on Europe’s austerity policies and highlighting the failings in the long-running Greece negotiations.考虑到双方现在互不信任,谈判是否会恢复还有待观察。撇开别的不谈,目前看,齐普拉斯采取的策略不失为大胆的行动,让他成为欧盟领导人中一股少见的难以预测的力量,也把注意力引到了欧洲的紧缩政策上,突显出旷日持久的希腊债务谈判的诸多失败之处。“That’s really the tragedy of all this,said Nick Malkoutzis, a political analyst in Athens, pointing out the shortcomings among all negotiators. “There has been a massive, collective failure.”“它的确是我们所有人造成的灾难,”雅典政治分析人士尼可·马克吉Nick Malkoutzis)说道,他指出谈判各方存在的种种问题。“这是一个巨大的、集体性的失败。”Barely five months ago, Mr. Tsipras stood in front of Athens University before thousands of cheering supporters, newly elected as prime minister, as he vowed to remake the European political order. He was the youthful, handsome leader of Greece’s radical left Syriza Party, having ridden waves of populist rage against the policies of economic austerity demanded by creditors in exchange for bailing out the country with 240 billion euros in loans, after the European economic crisis.不到五个月前,齐普拉斯在雅典大学门前,面对成千上万持者的欢呼,当选为新一届希腊总理,他宣誓要重整欧洲政治秩序。当时他是希腊左翼政党激进左翼联Syriza)年轻、英俊的领导人,乘着一波波高涨的民粹主义情绪的而起。这些愤怒情绪的根源是希腊债权人在欧洲经济危机爆发后要求希腊实行经济紧缩政策,由此换取2400亿欧元(约合1.667万亿人民币)贷款援助。In just a few years, Syriza had risen from the fringes to shatter Greece’s decades-old political establishment. Leftists across Europe rejoiced and predicted an electoral backlash against austerity in Spain and elsewhere. Mr. Tsipras interpreted Syriza’s election victory as a democratic mandate to roll back austerity and negotiate new terms to the country’s bailout.在短短的几年中,激进左翼联盟已经从边缘崛起,颠覆了希腊长达数十年的原有政治版图。欧洲的左翼人士欣喜地预言,在西班牙等其他国家的选举中,将出现选民反对紧缩政策的倒戈。齐普拉斯将激进左翼联盟在选举中的胜利解读为一种终止紧缩政策,并协商该国紧急财政援助方案新条款的民主授权。“He had delusions about how the European creditors would treat him,said Stavros Lygeros, a political commentator in Athens, with ties to Mr. Tsipras. “He thought they would respect the Greek vote and try to reach a mutually beneficial agreement.”“他对于欧洲债权人将如何对待他抱有幻想,”雅典的政治员,与齐普拉斯有联系的斯塔夫罗斯·莱吉尔罗Stavros Lygeros)说。“他认为他们会尊重希腊人的投票并努力达成互利的协议。”Any honeymoon with Europe was short-lived. Greece’s outspoken finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, alienated many European officials. The new Syriza government’s objective was a comprehensive new agreement, including debt relief, and the flexibility to run the economy as the government saw fit. The creditors the 18 other eurozone countries, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund blanched.任何与欧洲的蜜月都是短暂的。希腊心直口快的财政部长雅尼斯·瓦鲁法克斯(Yanis Varoufakis)与许多欧洲官员关系疏远。新的激进左翼联盟政府的目标是一个全新的综合性协议,包括减免债务,以及以希腊政府认为适合的灵活度来维持经济运行。债权人们——其8个欧元区国家、欧洲央行和国际货币基金组织——则脸色煞白。The compromise was an interim agreement on Feb. 20 that extended the bailout program until June 30. Mr. Varoufakis and other Syriza officials described the agreement’s language as “creative ambiguity,suggesting that it gave the government license to begin putting its own policies into effect. But creditors had included a poison pill, withholding a delayed loan of 7.2 billion euro, or about .1 billion,in the bailout program. Unlocking that money became the focus of negotiations going forward, especially as Greece was rapidly going broke and staring at debt payments on the horizon.这次妥协0号达成的一项临时协议,将延长援助计划到60日。瓦鲁法克斯和其他激进左翼联盟官员以“有创造性的模糊”来描述协议的语言,暗示这允许政府可以开始采用自己的政策。但债权人在其中挖了一个陷阱,阻止了援助计划中72亿欧元(约合500亿元人民币)的延期贷款。解冻这笔款项成为未来协商的焦点,尤其是当希腊正快速走向破产,且又即将面临偿还贷款的时候。In Brussels, technocratic negotiations stalled, as European officials blamed the Greeks for not presenting serious proposals.在布鲁塞尔,因为欧洲官员指责希腊人没有认真提出方案,技术性的谈判进入了僵局。European leaders and negotiators in Brussels bore their own pressures, as they faced voter anger over shipping billions of euros in loans to Greece. As Mr. Tsipras made regular trips to Brussels, rumors circulated that European officials saw him as a moderate and hoped he might shed some of the more radical elements of Syriza and form a new governing coalition with more centrist parties.欧洲领导人和布鲁塞尔的协商者们有着自己的压力,因为他们面对着选民对向希腊贷款数十亿欧元的不满。随着齐普拉斯频繁出访布鲁塞尔,有关传言甚嚣尘上,称欧洲官员视其为温和派并希望他能够褪去部分激进左翼联盟激进的元素,并与更多中间党派组成一个新的联合政府。“Cutting a bad deal is not an option for him,said one senior Syriza government official last week, speaking only on condition of anonymity. “One problem with the negotiations was that their negotiators him wrong. They thought he was willing to do whatever that was needed to stay in power.”“达成一个糟糕的协议对他来说是不可接受的,”一位不愿透露姓名的激进左翼联盟高级政府官员上周说。“协商的其中一个问题是谈判者错误地解读了他。他们认为他愿意为了保留权力不惜一切代价。”Some analysts speculate that Mr. Tsipras called the referendum to save his party, since putting the matter to voters absolves Syriza of its campaign promise not to sign such a deal. Others argue that the prime minister, like others in Syriza, are actually trying to steer Greece out of the eurozone.Mr. Lygeros, the political commentator who has known the prime minister for years, is critical of how he has handled the negotiations. But in an interview conducted last week, when it looked as if the Greek side would relent to creditor demands, Mr. Lygeros also noted that Mr. Tsipras could be pushed only so far.一些分析人士猜测齐普拉斯通过举行公投来拯救他的政党,这样把选择权交给选民,可以为激进左翼联盟在违背了不签署此类协议的竞选承诺之后开脱。还有人称,总理和激进左翼联盟的其他人一样,正在试图引导希腊脱离欧元区。与总理有多年关系的政治员莱吉尔罗斯批评了他处理谈判的方式。但在上周进行的一次采访中,当希腊方面似乎愿意向债权人的要求妥协时,莱吉尔罗斯也提到齐普拉斯仅能接受到这个程度。“For better or worse, the things he was saying when he got elected were things he genuinely believed in,Mr. Lygeros said. “If he is cornered too tightly, he is unpredictable. He might even go to a referendum.”“不论是好是坏,他在当选时所说的都是他所深信不疑的,”莱吉尔罗斯说。“如果他被逼得太紧,他会变得难以预测。他甚至可能会举行公投。”Two days later, Mr. Tsipras did just that.两天后,齐普拉斯就这么做了。来 /201507/383862。