江门市第二人民医院包皮手术多少钱
时间:2018年09月23日 23:42:06

Drug firms and cancer Lucrative lifesavers医药公司和癌症 利润丰厚的救星The hopes and perils of betting on cancer treatments癌症治疗的希望和风险NEW weapons are emerging in the war on cancer.在对癌症的战争中不断有新武器出现。That is good news not just for patients but also for drug companies.这不仅对病人是好消息,对制药公司也是好消息。The biggest ones, faced with falling sales as their existing medicines go off-patent, are investing in smaller firms with promising cancer treatments under development, hoping to secure the next blockbuster.最先有药物面临着销售下滑,失去专利保护,最重要的是投资于正在开发有前途的癌症治疗方法的小公司来确保拥有下一个重磅炸弹。On August 25th Amgen, the worlds biggest biotechnology company by sales, said it would pay .4 billion for another American firm, Onyx.8月25日世界上最大的生物技术公司安进表示,它将付104亿美元收购Onyx公司。The target firms crown jewel is Kyprolis, a treatment for multiple myeloma, a type of blood cancer.该公司拥有的药物Kyprolis能治疗多发性骨髓瘤,一种类型的血癌。The next day AstraZeneca, a British drugs firm, said it would snap up Amplimmune, an American firm working on ways to trigger the immune system to fight cancer.第二天,英国制药公司阿斯利康称将抢购Amplimmune公司,美国一家试图通过激活免疫系统来治疗癌症的公司。Oncology is attractive for several reasons.肿瘤学有吸引力是因为以下几个原因。First, the understanding of cancer is evolving rapidly.首先,对癌症的了解在不断加快。In the 20th century treatment relied on surgery, radiation and chemotherapy.在20世纪对癌症的治疗依赖于手术,放疗和化疗。These now seem rudimentary.现在这些都成了最基本的手段。Immunotherapy—getting the immune system to attack cancer—has gone from theory into practice.用免疫系统攻击癌细胞已经从理论进入实践。Genomics has helped scientists target specific mutations that promote cancer.基因组学帮助科学家通过特定的基因突变锁定促使癌症发生的基因。Another area of excitement for cancer researchers is epigenetics, which alters how a gene acts without meddling with the sequence of DNA.表观遗传学是癌症研究的另一个令人兴奋的领域,在不改变基因序列的前提下改变基因的表达。Second, regulators have speeded up their approval of cancer drugs.其次,监管机构已经在加快对抗癌药物的市场准入。Of the 39 medicines approved by Americas Food and Drug Administration in 2012, 11 were for cancer.在2012年由美国食品和药物批准的39种药品中,有11种用于治疗癌症。These included Kyprolis, which was granted accelerated approval, based on a smaller clinical trial than usual, for use as a last-ditch treatment for patients with multiple myeloma.其中包括Kyprolis,在只进行了小规模的临床试验的基础上加速审批通过,用于多发性骨髓瘤患者治疗的最后一道防线。Third, and most controversial, cancer drugs can fetch exorbitant prices, particularly in America.第三,也是最有争议的,治疗癌症的药物可以卖高昂的价格,特别是在美国。The idea is that theres nothing else available, so you can ask for a high price, explains Howard Liang of Leerink Swann, an investment bank.美国医疗保健投资的霍华德梁解释说:我们的想法是,因为没有别的可用,所以我们可以卖很高的价格。A typical course of treatment with Kyprolis lasting, say, five months, can cost around ,000.使用Kyprolis治疗一个疗程,也就是5个月,花费大约5万美元。Little surprise, then, that big drugmakers are keen to develop their own cancer drugs, form partnerships with smaller firms that have promising treatments in the pipeline, and buy such companies outright.有个小惊喜就是大制药公司都热衷于开发自己的抗癌药物,与在治疗过程中能提高治疗效果的小公司形成合作关系,也直接收购这种小公司。Kyprolis was first developed by a small firm called Proteolix, which was bought by Onyx, now acquired by Amgen.首先Kyprolis是由一个叫 Proteolix的小公司开发的,被Onyx收购,现在又被Amgen收购。In Bristol-Myers Squibb, an American drug giant, paid .4 billion for Medarex, which had an experimental immunotherapy drug.美国制药业巨头施贵宝,年斥资24亿美元收购了拥有免疫治疗药物的Medarex公司。That drug, for melanoma, is now sold in America for 0,000 for a full course of treatment.该药物对黑色素瘤,现在在美国一个完整的疗程需要12万美元。There are risks, however.风险还是有的。Even a drug seemingly destined for fame and fortune can fall flat.即使药物名利似乎注定落空。The FDA has approved Kyprolis only for patients who have aly tried at least two other treatments.批准Kyprolis,只适用于那些已经尝试过至少两个其他治疗方法的患者。Its annual sales could reach billion, reckons Goldman Sachs.高盛估计其年销售额能达到30亿美元。But that requires approval beyond America, and data showing that Kyprolis is worth giving to earlier-stage patients.但是这还需要美国以外的批准,并且要有数据能够明Kyprolis也可以应用于早期患者。AstraZeneca is buying Amplimmune largely for two cancer drugs still in early testing.阿斯利康购买Amplimmune主要是两种抗癌药物目前仍处于早期测试。If you are not willing to take risks, you cannot be in this area, says Bahija Jallal, an executive at AstraZeneca.如果你不愿意承担风险,你就不会出现在这个领域,阿斯利康的一个管理人员Bahija Jallal说。The biggest question in the long term is whether health insurers and governments will keep paying up.长期来看最大的问题是医疗保险公司和政府是否会继续持。Onyx and Bayer, a German firm, share the profits of Nexavar, a kidney-cancer drug.德国拜耳公司和Onyx共享肾癌药物多吉美的利润。Last year Indian regulators granted a local firm a compulsory licence to sell Nexavar copies for a fraction of Bayers price.去年印度的监管机构强制许可授予当地一家小公司销售多吉美的仿制药,价格只是拜耳的一小部分。The response elsewhere is less extreme.其他地方的响应却不那么极端。But companies face new scrutiny over their prices, particularly in Europe.但是,公司在欧洲面临新的价格审查。In April more than 100 experts in chronic myeloid leukaemia signed a paper to protest against the high cost of drugs.4月100多名在慢性髓性白血病方面的专家签署了一份抗议药物成本过高的声明。For now, however, Amgen should be able to continue charging handsomely for Kyprolis.但就目前而言,安进能够从Kyprolis获得丰厚的利润。 /201309/255527

Reforming China’s state-owned firms改革中国的国有企业From SOE to GLC从国有企业到国联企业China’s rulers look to Singapore for tips on portfolio management中国领导人指望得到新加坡关于投资组合管理的指点Nov 23rd 2013 | HONG KONG |From the print editionSHORTLY before his confirmation as China’s “paramount leader” in 1978, Deng Xiaoping paid a visit to fast-growing Singapore. He planted a tree on a hill overlooking Jurong, a bustling industrial park built on what was once marshy wasteland close to the city-state’s harbour. Singapore’s success as a trading hub impressed Deng, who imposed his vision of economic reform on China’s Communist Party the following month, at an historic meeting known as the “third plenum”.1978年,邓小平被任命为中国“最高领导人”前夕,他对高速发展的新加坡进行了访问。他在俯瞰裕廊的一座山上种植了一棵树,裕廊是建于城市港口附近的一个蓬勃发展的工业园区,那里曾经是一个不毛之地。新加坡成功成为一个贸易枢纽给邓小平留下了深刻的印象,他在访问新加坡后的一个月,在那个具有历史意义的“三中全会”上,向中国共产党提出了有关经济改革的设想。Singapore, which has a population of 5m to China’s 1.35 billion, remains a source of inspiration for some Chinese reformers. On the eve of the latest third plenum, held earlier this month, the Development Research Centre (DRC), a government think-tank, advertised an ambitious set of reform proposals, including an overhaul of China’s inefficient state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Simply privatising these companies remains out of the question for China’s leaders. But there are alternatives, and Singapore provides one.对于中国一些改革家来说,拥有500万人口的新加坡与拥有13.5亿人口的中国相比,仍然具有激励作用。本月初期举行的十八届三中全会前夕,政府智囊团国务院发展研究中心公布了一系列雄心勃勃的改革提议,包括彻底改革中国低效国有企业。仅仅将这些企业私有化对中国领导人来说是不可能的。但是他们还有其他选择,新加坡就提供了一个选项。The DRC’s plan named Temasek, a holding company for SOEs in Singapore, as a potential model. It was created in 1974, when it inherited 35 companies from the finance ministry. Its inaugural portfolio contained several of the firms that made Jurong eye-catching, including its shipyard and its birdpark (pictured). In the four decades since, Temasek’s portfolio has both multiplied (it is now worth S5 billion, or 2 billion) and gone forth: only 30% of its holdings remain in Singapore itself. Its domestic holdings are concentrated in what Singapore calls “government-linked companies” (GLCs), such as Singapore Airlines (of which it owns 56%) and SingTel, a telecoms company (52%).国务院发展研究中心计划把新加坡国有企业控股公司淡马锡公司作为一个可能的模型。淡马锡公司成立于1974年,它从新加坡财政部手中接手了35家国有企业。它成立的投资组合包括几个使得裕廊引人注目的公司,包括其造船厂和飞禽公园(如图)。从那时起后四十年,裕廊的投资组合不仅迅速增加(它现在价值2150亿新加坡币,约合1720亿美元),还不断发展:只有30%的控股还在新加坡手上。其国内股份集中在新加坡称为“国联企业”手中,例如新加坡航空(控股56%),电信公司SingTel(52%)。Temasek’s charter obliges it to increase the value of its holdings over the long term. This is a remarkably simple aim compared with the Chinese government’s manifold ambitions. It wants its holdings to promote technological progress, favoured industries and national security, among other things.淡马锡公司的章程迫使他们在长期增加他们股份的价值。这相对于中国政府各种各样的雄心壮志来说明显是一个简单明确的目标。此外,他们还希望他们的股份能推进技术进步,推动中意的工业发展和国家安全。As well as clarifying objectives, the Temasek model also allows the state to distance itself from the management of its enterprises, without relinquishing ownership. Temasek avoids meddling in the day-to-day running of the GLCs in its portfolio, which are free to hire professional managers at market rates. With a few exceptions, it does not directly appoint board members either. This is partly because it does not want to become privy to price-sensitive information that might limit its ability to trade shares.除了阐明目标以外,淡马锡模型还准许国家在不放弃所有权的情况下,拉开自己与企业管理的距离。淡马锡模型避免了对国联企业投资组合日常管理的干预,这样可以随意以市场价雇佣专业的管理人才。除了几个例外,淡马锡公司也不直接任命董事会成员。这样做部分原因是因为它不想获准接触那些可能会限制其自身交易股份能力的价格敏感的信息。Temasek has evolved into an active investor, but not an activist one, says Stephen Forshaw, its chief spokesman. Although it does not appoint directors, it does meet regularly with its wards’ boards to make its feelings known. It also keeps managers on their toes by enlisting outside consultants, such as Bain or McKinsey, to spot industrial trends they should be aware of.淡马锡公司首席发言人史蒂芬福肖说,淡马锡公司已经逐步发展成了一个活跃的投资者,但不是一个积极分子。虽然淡马锡不任命董事,它定期与其监管董事会开会,让董事会知道他们的想法。它还让管理者通过谋求外部咨询来保持警觉,如向贝恩或麦肯锡咨询,来留意他们应该知道的工业发展趋势。Would the Temasek model help improve the efficiency of China’s state-owned enterprises? Only one (Singapore Airlines) or possibly two (DBS bank) of Temasek’s GLCs have established themselves as international brands, according to critics such as Chris Balding of Peking University. SingTel has made successful foreign acquisitions, but other GLCs have fared less well. STATS ChipPAC, a semiconductor firm, lost money in the second quarter of this year, as a result of the costs of closing a factory in Malaysia.淡马锡模型会有助于提高中国国有企业的效率吗?据北京大学的克里斯鲍尔丁说,淡马锡公司的国联企业中只有一个(新加坡航空)或者可能两个(DBS)已经成为了国际品牌。SingTel成功进行了外资并购,但是其他国联企业很少有成功的。半导体公司STATAS ChipPAC今年第二季度亏损,因为它关闭了位于马来西亚的一个工厂。The few academic studies of Singapore’s GLCs are more encouraging, however. A 2004 article by Carlos Ramirez of George Mason University and Ling Hui Tan of the IMF showed that the country’s GLCs enjoyed a higher market value, relative to the book value of their assets, than comparable private firms. They also generated a higher return on assets, on average.但是关于新加坡国联企业的学术研究越少越令人鼓舞。乔治梅森的卡洛斯拉米雷斯和国际货币基金组织的Ling Hui Tan 2004发表的一篇文章表明,就资产净值而言,新加坡的国联企业比起私人企业有更高的市场价值。他们还创造更高的平均投资回报。In judging the performance of Temasek’s GLCs, the counterfactual is important. They may not be as obviously successful as private titans from the region such as Samsung or LG. But they are not nearly as bad as most SOEs, including China’s. The enthusiasm for reform of SOEs in China reflects their deteriorating returns and accumulating debt. According to M.K. Tang of Goldman Sachs, their return on assets was 6.5 percentage points below that of other Chinese firms in 2012 and their shares trade at a growing discount. Even Mr Balding, meanwhile, is happy to fly Singapore Airlines.在评价淡马锡的国联企业的表现时,反事实的情况很重要。他们可能不会像亚洲私人公司巨头那样有着明显的成功,如三星、LG。但是他们几乎不会像大多数国有企业包括中国的国有企业那样糟糕。中国国有企业改革的反映了他们日益恶化的投资回报和日益增长的债务。根据高盛投资公司的M.K. Tang,2012年国有企业的资产回报比中国其他公司低6.5个百分点,且他们的股份持续贬值。同时,甚至是鲍尔丁先生也很高兴乘坐新加坡航空。 /201311/266360

Science in Argentina阿根廷的科学发展Cristina the alchemist炼金术士克里斯蒂娜Argentina is trying to build a scientific establishment阿根廷正努力打造一个科学机构SOUTH AFRICA is not the only middle-income country which aspires to join the worlds scientific powers.南非并不是唯一渴望加入世界科学强国的中等收入国家。Argentina would like to as well.怀有同样渴望的还有阿根廷。The place is proud of its three Nobel science prizes—the largest haul of any Latin American nation—even if the most recent was awarded in 1984.曾经三次荣获诺贝尔科学奖,但即使最后一次获奖发生在1984年,阿根廷仍然以此为傲,因为这是任何拉丁美洲国家都无法比拟的成就。But many researchers fled in the 1990s, when budgets were slashed. Now the government is trying to attract them back, and to encourage younger talent to consider a scientific career.但在20世纪90年代,预算大幅削减,许多研究人员抽身而去。如今,政府正在努力将其吸引回国,并鼓励青年人才以科学为职业。When Néstor Kirchner, the predecessor and late husband of the current president, Cristina Fernandez, took office in 2003, Argentina was spending just 0.41% of its GDP on research and development.前总统内斯托尔·基什内尔于2003年上台,当时阿根廷在研究和开发上的投入仅占其GDP的0.41%。Now, that figure is 0.64%.如今的投入占到0.64%。Kirchner raised researchers salaries, launched a scheme to repatriate departed scientists and gave tax breaks to software companies.基什内尔总统提高了研究人员的工资,推出召回离国科学家的方案,允许软件开发公司享受税收上的优惠。Ms Fernandez followed suit by creating a science ministry and putting a biologist, Lino Barao, in charge of it.费尔南德斯夫人也相继建立起科技部,并任命生物学家巴拉尼奥为部长。She also increased grants to firms that try to develop new products.她还提高了给新产品研发公司的拨款。Many of the Kirchners critics were sceptical, seeing the ministry either as a political marketing ploy or as a soft touch for lobbyists seeking unjustified subsidies.许多针对基什内尔的批评家们持一种怀疑态度,他们认为科技部既是一种政治营销策略,又会被那些寻求不正当补贴的说客轻易利用。But the strategy seems to be working.然而整个策略却似乎正在发挥作用。With help from the Inter-American Development Bank the government has, since 2004, lured back 854 expatriate scientists.2004年,在美洲开发的帮助下,阿根廷政府总共将854名移居国外的科学家吸引回国,It has done so by providing new laboratories and equipment for them, moving their families, and forking out extra money for their salaries.为他们提供新的实验室和仪器,安置其家人,分拨额外资金作为他们的酬劳。As a consequence, according to Dr Baraao,根据尼奥教授所说,Argentine researchers have published 179 articles in leading journals in the past decade, compared with just 30 in the 1990s.之后阿根廷的研究员们在过去的十年里发表在前沿期刊的文章就有179篇,而90年代却只有30篇。Most of the returners are academics. But commercial science has benefited, too.大多数归国人员都是学术派,但商业科学却也从中受益。Indear, a joint public-private biotechnology-research centre based in Santa Fe, recently worked out how to transfer a gene for drought resistance from sunflowers to crops such as maize, soyabeans and wheat.总部位于圣达菲的一家公私合营生物技术研究中心Indear,近日研发出如何将向日葵中的抗旱基因转移到玉米大豆及小麦等农作物上,此举可将旱地产量提升至40%。That can increase yields in droughts by up to 40%. And the government has also doled out 54m in grants for the development of products that include coagulant factors to treat haemophilia,同时,政府还发放5400万美元开发包括发凝血因子在内的产品,transgenic cattle which secrete valuable hormones in their milk, and better ways of probing for oil deposits.以治疗血友病,研究分泌珍贵激素的转基因奶牛,以及提高石油储备的勘探技术。Help for high-tech innovation comes in other forms, too.对高科技创新的扶持还不止这些。The state offers, for example, to pay the cost of patenting inventions in foreign jurisdictions and of hiring lawyers to defend those patents.例如,政府会为在海外司法审批的发明付专利申请费用,并出钱雇佣律师为之辩护。It also acts as a headhunter for information-technology firms seeking employees with PhDs, and will pay part of the salaries of such recruits.同时还为信息技术公司充当猎头,搜寻有士学历的员工,并付其部分薪金。None of these programmes has faced allegations of corruption.所有的项目都没有发生有关贪污的起诉。Whether all this activity will have the effect of stimulating high-tech industry, as Ms Fernandez hopes, remains to be seen.然而,整个方案是否会像费尔南德夫人希望的那样推动高科技工业的发展,还得拭目以待。Argentine scientists are happy to take taxpayers money but according to Luis Dambra, a professor at the IAE business school in Buenos Aires, they look down their noses at the idea of actually getting their hands dirty by going into industry.花着纳税人的钱让阿根廷的科学家们十分高兴,不过布宜诺斯爱丽丝IAE商学院的路易斯·丹布尔教授认为,进入工业领域就是自降身段的说法让科学家们嗤之以鼻。Mr Dambra, though, says industry is equally to blame.尽管如此,丹布尔先生表示工业同样应该被斥责。In , only 21% of Argentine Ramp;D was paid for by the private sector, compared with 44% of Brazils.年,阿根廷研发领域仅有21%的费用是由私营部门付,相比巴西就达到了44%。Firms that might recruit academic scientists often do not see the point.那些有可能聘请学术科学家的公司却总是忽略了这一点。Even those that do may struggle to accommodate people with a non-commercial background into the business world.即便那些看到这一点的公司也可能争抢着将非商科背景的研究员安置在商业领域。Attitudes can change, of course.当然,态度看法总是发生变化的。In the 1980s many British academics were as snobbish about commerce as Argentinas are now.19世纪80年代,许多英国学者看待商业的态度和今天的阿根廷人一样不屑一顾。These days, Britains top universities are gung-ho for spin-outs and the revenue they can provide. But it takes time and consistent policy to make such changes and Argentina is notorious for sudden alterations in the political weather.而现在英国的顶尖大学都在为其所能提供的额外产物和收益而狂热。但是这些转变都需要长久的时间和一贯的政策才能得以确保,而阿根廷却因为在政界中风云突变而名声狼藉。That makes the country a perilous place to invest, whatever the current climate.无论现阶段状况如何,整个国家都成了投资者的危险之地。 /201306/242535

Finance and economics财经商业High-yield bonds高利债券An appetite for junk来点垃圾Companies have taken advantage of investorsgrowing willingness to buy speculative bonds公司很好的利用了投资者日益高涨的购买投机性债券的意愿WHEN cash deposits pay virtually zero, investors have an incentive to take risks in search of higher returns.当存款利率近乎于零,投资者便会冒险寻求更高收益。That has been good news for the high-yield, or junk, bond market, where companies with poor credit ratings turn for finance.而这对于高利债券、或垃圾债券市场来说,无疑是个好消息,那些信用评级差的公司通常通过这种方式融资。Many companies can now borrow at rates that governments would have been pleased to achieve two decades ago.现在,许多公司可以以各国政府二十年前喜闻乐见的利率获得投资。Indeed, so low have borrowing costs fallen that some wags have dubbed the market the asset class formerly known as high-yield.诚然,借贷成本降至如此之低,甚至有人将其戏称为前高利债券。Until the hiatus related to the budget crisis inAmerica, companies were rushing to take advantage of this financing opportunity.直到此次美债违约,各家公司纷纷借助这股东风融资。In the first nine months of the year global high-yield-bond issuance reached 378.2 billion, up by 27% on the same period in 2012, according to Dealogic, a financial-data firm. Sprint,据金融数据公司迪罗基称,今年前九个月发现的高利债券达到了3782亿美元,同比增长27%。an American telecoms company, raised 6.5 billion in two simultaneous bond issues, the largest-ever junk financing.美国电信公司Sprint通过同步发行债券筹集到了65亿美元,这也是迄今为止最大的垃圾融资。Low rates will not last forever, so companies are keen to take advantage of what might be an historic opportunity.低利率不会持续太久,公司自然不会错过这次千载难逢的机会。And investors have been happy to take the extra yields on offer, given the positive returns achieved since .鉴于年后获得正收益,投资者也乐意出资获取额外收益。In America, the modern high-yield-bond market dates back to the 1980s. Until then, high-yield bonds were usually fallen angels—companies which previously had an investment-grade credit rating but had seen their finances suffer.美国现代高利债券起源于上世纪八十年代。在那之前,高利率债券通常都是落难天使—此前已获得投资信用评级的公司都遭遇过财务危机。But Michael Milken and his team at Drexel Burnham Lambert, an investment bank, discovered there was a market for high-yield debt from new issuers, often in connection with companies making takeover bids.但是,德瑞债券的迈克尔米尔肯为高利债券发行者发现了新的市场,而这通常和公司收购行动密不可分。The market is now huge.现在,这一市场前景广阔,A study by Russell, a consultancy, estimated its total size at 1.7 trillion.咨询公司Russell预计其总需求为1.7万亿。Almost half of all the corporate bonds rated by Standard amp; Poors are classed as speculative, a polite term for junk.标普公司发布的信用评级中超过半数公司债券均为投机性债券—垃圾债券的委婉说法。Part of this is down to fashion; companies have been urged to return spare cash to shareholders and to make their balance-sheets more efficient by taking advantage of the tax deductibility of interest payments.其中,部分债券已经流于形式,股东撤回公司闲钱,如此便可利用付息债券避税,从而使得资产负债表更加均衡。Another big boost to the market has been the broadening of its base beyondAmerica.高利债券膨胀的另一大原因是除美国市场之外,世界其他地区需求增加。According to Fraser Lundie, a high-yield-bond manager at Hermes,America comprised 89% of the market in 1998; now it forms just 57%.Europehas gone from 3% of the market to 27%.爱马仕高利债券经理弗雷泽伦迪表示,1998年美国国内发行的高利债券占全世界的89%,现在降至57%,而欧洲则由当初的3%增至27%。The rise of high-yield bonds has been handy for European companies in the wake of the financial crisis, as many banks have been seeking to shrink their balance-sheets, and have been less willing to offer loans.随着金融危机的爆发,高利债券发行量的增长对欧洲公司来说也极为便利,因为都减少贷款,平衡资产负债表。Historically, European companies have been much more dependent on bank finance than their American counterparts.从历史观点上说,相对于美国公司,欧洲公司对的依赖更强。They also used to be warier of seeing their bonds classed as junk.过去,欧洲公司甚至害怕其债券被评为垃圾级。Low rates have been good for the market in another way.从另一个层面来说,低利率对市场有利。They have enabled companies to refinance their debt cheaply, and so pushed back the nettlesome day when their finances will be squeezed by higher borrowing costs.因为这样公司可以以低成本获得再融资,当初借贷成本高不说,还很难获得通过,简直苦不堪言。A few years ago there was a worry that a lot of debt would need to be refinanced in 2012 and 2013; now the refinancing hump will not come until 2017 and 2018.几年前,人们担心过多债务会导致2012年、2013年时需要再融资;现在,在2017年、2018年之前再融资峰值是不会出现的。A long period of cheap finance makes it less likely that issuers will be forced to default in the short term, and the reduced likelihood of default makes it more attractive for investors to hold bonds.长期的低成本融资让债券发行方短期内违约的可能性大大降低,违约可能性的降低又会吸引更多投资者持有债券。In the wake of Lehmans collapse, the sp on junk bonds rose so far that it implied default on a scale not seen since the Great Depression.随着雷曼兄弟的破产,垃圾债券的差额大幅增长,这也就导致了大萧条后前所危机的违约浪潮。But after a brief spike to 13.7% in , the default rate on global high-yield bonds dropped steadily and was just 2.8% in September, according to Moodys, another ratings agency.但是,据评级公司穆迪称,年13.7%的违约高峰很快便平息;今年九月,全球高利率债券违约率仅为2.8%。But not all is sunny in the high-yield world.但是,高利债券市场并非总是风平浪静。Although the market has doubled or tripled in size since 2008, liquidity has diminished.尽管自2008年后高利债券市场规模已经增至原来的两至三倍,债券的流动性却降低了。Regulatory restrictions mean that banks no longer hold as much inventory in the form of bonds; since 2002, there has been a decline of almost three-quarters.监管限制让无法继续像以前那样持有太多债券形式的存货。自2002年来,所持债券已经减少了75%。PIMCO, a huge bond-fund manager, said in a recent report, We see reduced liquidity as an important secular trend. It is an unintended consequence of the deleveraging and re-regulation of banks globally. It will result in higher volatility in times of stress.近期,太平洋投资管理公司发布的一篇报道称,我们认为流动性的降低将会是一个重要的长期趋势,这是全球重新平衡、管理的副作用。In other words, if investors ever lose their current enthusiasm for high-yield bonds, they will find it much harder, and probably costlier, to offload them.换句话说,如果投资者对高利债券的热情降低,他们便会发现想要抛售这些债券将会更加困难、或许还会付出更高代价。Meanwhile, the growing enthusiasm for high-yield bonds is likely to diminish the returns they offer.与此同时,随着人们对高利债券愈发热衷,其回报率也会相应降低。In the past investors typically bought junk bonds at a discount to their face value; they hoped that the profits on bonds that were repaid at maturity would offset the losses on the few issuers that defaulted.过去,投资者都是以折扣价买入垃圾债券,他们希望债券到期的收益能够抵消部分违约发行者带来的损失。Yet in May this year the average price of a high-yield bond reached 6% above face value, according to Mr Lundie.然而,据伦迪数据显示今年五月高利债券的平均价格超过了其面值的6%。Holding a bond until maturity will thus result in a capital loss, although investors may still profit from interest.尽管投资者仍可从利息中获利,但持有高利债券直至到期将会造成一定资本损失。Worse, many bonds—perhaps two-thirds or three-quarters of the market—have a call option attached to them that allows the issuer to repay the debt if it reaches a certain price.更糟糕的是许多债券—可能2/3或3/4的现行债券—都有看涨期权,如果债券达到一定价格,发行方可以偿还债务。That allows issuers to take advantage of growing optimism about their prospects to reissue bonds at lower interest.这也就使得发行方可以利用投资者不断高涨的乐观情绪,以更低的利率发行债券。Such call options skew the risk-reward trade-off.看涨期权让风险报酬交易失去了平衡。If a bond gets close to the callable price, it is unlikely to rise much further: who would bid 110 cents for a bond that can be redeemed at 104?如果某个债券接近可赎回价格,其价格也就不大可能会继续涨了:谁会愿意花110美分购买104美分就可以赎回的债券呢?On the other hand, if the company hits hard times, the bond could fall quite sharply in price. So investors face a limited upside and a big downside.另一方面,如果市场萧条,债券价格便会一落千丈。因此,对投资者来说此事弊大于利。That has tended to push investors towards ever riskier assets, such as CCC-rated bonds—the lowest category excluding those issuers that have aly defaulted.这回让投资者转向风险更大的债券,比如除违约债券以外的最低评级债券,CCC级债券。David Newman of Rogge Global Partners, a fund-management firm, reckons that such bonds are now probably overpriced, given the risks involved.来自资金管理公司Rogge Global Partners的大卫纽曼认为考虑到风险因素,这类债券目前可能定价过高。It is in the nature of the bond markets that, when conditions are good, investors get more relaxed about credit quality.债券市场的特性是当市场环境良好,投资者便会对信用质量更加放心。Some observers think that the risks of high-yield bonds are being systematically underestimated.部分观察人士认为,高利债券的风险被普遍低估。The sps paid by high-yield issuers are low relative to the historical average, although they are more than sufficient to compensate investors given the low level of defaults.尽管,考虑到低违约率,债券发行方更加确信可以让投资者收到回报;但是,同历史平均水平相比,现在高利债券发行方所付的利率更低。If central banks start raising interest rates to deal with a resurgence of inflation, or if the global economy slips back into recession, junk-bond investors may suffer a nasty shock. But for the moment they are enjoying the ride.如果央行为了规避通胀而开始提高利率,或者全球经济再度陷入萧条,垃圾债券投资者或许会损失惨重。但是,现在他们正享。 /201310/261375


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